"The Islamic Revolution is the largest and most popular revolution of the new era, and the only revolution that didn't betray its aspirations, despite the temptations. Now it enters its 2nd phase"
Khamenei continues by naming the virtues of the revolution and the obstacles it faced in its early days. "There was no precedent for us. Obviously, Marxist revolutions couldn't be a model for an Islamic revolution"
Most of the statement is directed to the Iranian youth: "The decades ahead are your decades, and you must protect the revolution and bring it closer to the creation of a new Islamic civilization"
"The revolution changed the path of the world, and its earthquake awakened the 'Pharaohs' who slept in their beds. The progress we did can be rightly compared to the French, Indian and Communist revolutions"
"We became a symbol for standing up against bullies, whose leader is America... safeguarding the revolution against the arrogant regimes [the West] is a well-known feature of Iran and its youth for 40 years"
He explained that challenges today are different. In 1979 it was Israeli &US embassies in Tehran, yet today it is the attempt to challenge Iran's presence on Israeli borders, and to counter US influence in the region.
Elaborating on this, he claimed that in 1979 the West tried to prevent Iran from buying basic weapons, while today it tries to hinder transfer of advanced Iranian weapons to the forces of "resistance" in the region.
Referring to the #WarsawSummit, #Khamenei claimed that in 1979, the US could defeat Iran with only a few airplanes, while today its attempt to unite a coalition of dozens of governments to cope with Iran fails
He described the youth as highly educated, revolutionary and jihadi and called upon them to use Iran's pros (resources, location, national and regional markets, long beaches and fertile lands) to advance the country
Lastly, Khamenei issued several recommendations for the Iranian people -- First to progress indigenous knowledge, not dependant on the West. "We have achieved much despite swimming against the enemy's sanctions" #Khamenei’s “Second Step of the Revolution” - #گام_دوم_انقلاب
Second - Khamenei urged the youth to elevate their spirituality and morality, and called upon the government to counter the "invasion of the enemy into the hearts of youngsters and teenagers"
Third - Khamenei stressed the need to strengthen the economy in the face of sanctions, as "it highly influences spirituality". Among others, he mentioned oil dependency, unbalanced budgeting and unstable policies
Fifth - #Khamenei stressed the need to fight corruption and injustice. "Everyone should know that economic purity is a condition for the legitimacy of the Islamic Republic.. This struggle requires people with faith and jihadism"
Sixth - #Khamenei explained the need for national independence and social freedom -- both are values that "hundreds of thousands of brave and self-sacrificing" Iranians have shed blood for.
Seventh - #Khamenei highlighted the need for national dignity, wisdom, and expediency" in intrl relations, as the current global scene witnesses trends of Islamic awakening and resistance to the "US and Zionist domination".
Eighth - #Khamenei claimed that in addition to the US, Iran also regards a number of European govs as dictatorial and unreliable, and must interact with them carefully, while preserving the country's values and dignity
Ninth - #Khamenei stressed that the attempts to promote a Western lifestyle in Iran have caused moral, economic, religious and political losses to the nation, and must be countered by a "comprehensive and intelligent jihad"
"In 1979 the world was divided to East and West... One of these two centers of hostility was destroyed [USSR] and the other is struggling with problems, while #Iran continues to keep up with its slogans"
Khamenei’s office issues a series of interviews with members of the “JCPOA Monitoring Council” discussing Khamenei’s guidelines.
The council is composed of conservatives and “moderates”, with members like Rouhani, Larijani, Zarif, Salehi, Jalili, Kharazi, Velayati & Ghalibaf
The interviews were held in the context of Khamenei’s last speech, and are clearly meant to show that the regime is in full consensus with Khamenei’s line of thought — the kind of “rallying around the flag” rhetoric Tehran has taken many times in 2003-05 (per Rouhani’s memoirs)
1 - The notion that Iran is in “no hurry” for the US to return to the JCPOA. Jalili & Velayati noted that if sanctions aren’t lifted, Iran won’t rush into a deal & Kharazi explained that Iran must first see how the Biden admin will act
Quick #Iran Elections thought: 9 months before the ballots, newspapers are filled with an increasing number of IRGC-related hardliners who may run (e.g. Ghalibaf, Dehghan, Ghasemi, Fattah etc.). Yet so far no strong candidate on the other side of the political map has emerged
1/4
Indeed #Iran’s pendulum politics seem to shift to the hardline side. Traditional conservatives & reformists will have hard choices to take if they want to counter this trend. They would prob have to reach a compromise/ZOPA candidate if they want to win elections
2/4
According to many, former Majles Speaker Ali #Larijani is an option. While his family’s power diminished over the last years (his brothers were removed from their positions), I wouldn’t disregard him. Remember that #Rouhani won elections after a decade in political wilderness
3/4
Thread 👇
Whatever shape the Snapback clash may take, Iran’s reaction is becoming clearer. Instead of playing hardball, it embraced a cautious approach of disregarding the US threat & exploiting the crisis for political gains
Over the past few months, Tehran has warned that reimposing UN sanctions might push it to take harsh steps in response. Yet more recent statements indicate that the regime is poised to follow its frequent pattern of taking a more calculated nuclear approach in the end.
2/10
The Majles National Security & FP Committee warned that if snapback is triggered, AEOI should immediately “return all nuclear activity to the level before JCPOA”. The statement then echoed the same steps Iran threatened to take in the past (increasing # & % of enrichment)
3/10
A few thoughts re @iaeaorg decision and the potential for "dynamics of escalation".
Iran had always had blind-spots in assessing how others would react to its actions. The 2005 nuclear crisis and the storming of the UK embassy in 2012 are great example of strategic fallacies 1/5
Decision makers in Iran likely see today's events as part of a broader US attempt to extend the arms embargo. The regime has a dilemma - it doesn't want to risk an escalation at its current situation (Covid, Economy, Protests), yet wants to deter US from pursuing this path 2/5
Now comes the tricky part - does the strategic planners in Tehran believe that there is an equilibrium in which Iran reacts in a "proportionate" way, holding true to its implicit threats to hinder the cooperation with the IAEA, but still doesn't risk broader escalation? 3/5
Since 2012, Tehran has suggested it may need to produce nuclear-fueled ships and submarines because sanctions have forced its navy to look for alternative fuel sources. 4/6 navies in the world that possess nuclear propulsion reactors use high enriched Uranium 1/4
In 2018, Tehran reemphasized the project in the wake of US pressures, taking a step forward by alerting the IAEA of its decision “to construct naval nuclear propulsion in the future.” Iran told the agency that no facility will be involved in the project for the next 5 years 2/4
Yet Tehran uses this project from time to time to threaten the West, hoping to deter it from increasing pressures. Only last week did the AEOI spox announced an advancement in the project, without shading more light on this subject. Yesterday the navy chief joined the choir 3/4
Thread👇:
How does the #Coronavirus outbreak in Iran affects the regime's attention to its nuclear program? What can we learn from Iran's dull nuclear holiday, and how should the Intl. community deter Iran from any cheater?
Iran's Nuclear holiday is an opp for the regime to unveil (exaggerated) advancements in its nuke program. In light of #Coronavirus the festival was postponed this year, a decision that was probably influenced by the high infection rate among top officials washin.st/34yh2MH
The AEOI announced “122 nuke achievements” (to be unveiled later this year), but the leadership doesn't seem to be focused on the nuke program. Rouhani didn't issue a statement re the holiday, and Khamenei didn't reference the program in his Nowruz speech washin.st/34yh2MH