1/ "Taking No-Deal off the table will leave the EU no incentive to give the UK a better deal."
There are MP's making this argument, so it's worth taking seriously.
The stated red lines are clear: UK wants a limit/exit to the backstop, EU is refusing one.
#TuesdayThoughts
There are MP's making this argument, so it's worth taking seriously.
The stated red lines are clear: UK wants a limit/exit to the backstop, EU is refusing one.
#TuesdayThoughts
2/ The argument is the threat of a chaotic No-Deal Brexit will push the EU to change its red line.
This is theoretically possible, but as a negotiator, you might want to ask yourself some questions to test if it's likely.
This is theoretically possible, but as a negotiator, you might want to ask yourself some questions to test if it's likely.
3/ Question 1:
"Have the stakeholders behind the red line indicated any flexibility?"
The stakeholders here are the Irish, but also EU leaders and their commitment to the integrity of the Single Market.
"Have the stakeholders behind the red line indicated any flexibility?"
The stakeholders here are the Irish, but also EU leaders and their commitment to the integrity of the Single Market.
4/ Question 2:
"Are there signs of dissent among their coalition?"
If half the EU were strongly advocating watering down the backstop, holding out might give that faction time and ammunition to win the internal argument.
"Are there signs of dissent among their coalition?"
If half the EU were strongly advocating watering down the backstop, holding out might give that faction time and ammunition to win the internal argument.
5/ Question 3:
"Is there a groundswell of popular support for changing the red line in the EU?"
Are there rallies being held? Are well-regarded voices on the news advocating for it? Are the newspapers full of 'change the backstop' op-eds by respected public intellectuals?
"Is there a groundswell of popular support for changing the red line in the EU?"
Are there rallies being held? Are well-regarded voices on the news advocating for it? Are the newspapers full of 'change the backstop' op-eds by respected public intellectuals?
6/ Question 4:
"Are opposition parties making it a big issue in politics at the national level?"
The political cost for any government increases exponentially when they have a vocal opposition pushing a certain issue as a litmus test. Are they doing that?
"Are opposition parties making it a big issue in politics at the national level?"
The political cost for any government increases exponentially when they have a vocal opposition pushing a certain issue as a litmus test. Are they doing that?
7/ Question 5:
"Have any politicians of sufficient stature made averting No-Deal a central commitment or election promise?"
Again, this significantly increases the political cost to those politicians of allowing No-Deal to happen.
"Have any politicians of sufficient stature made averting No-Deal a central commitment or election promise?"
Again, this significantly increases the political cost to those politicians of allowing No-Deal to happen.
8/ Question 6:
"How vocal are business groups and are they pushing for the outcome the UK wants?"
Businesses are obviously concerned about the prospect of No-Deal, but are they actively pushing a renegotiation of the WA or changing of the backstop?
"How vocal are business groups and are they pushing for the outcome the UK wants?"
Businesses are obviously concerned about the prospect of No-Deal, but are they actively pushing a renegotiation of the WA or changing of the backstop?
9/ I'm not an expert on EU politics or the EU zeitgeist, so I don't know the answers to those questions.
They are however the ones I'd ask before playing chicken with the EU by using the threat of No-Deal as leverage... and the ones EU negotiators will be asking in reverse. /end
They are however the ones I'd ask before playing chicken with the EU by using the threat of No-Deal as leverage... and the ones EU negotiators will be asking in reverse. /end
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