Multiple political parties (Greens, Change UK) believe there is no need for Remain parties to coordinate because the election is held under proportional representation. This is wrong, and misunderstands the role of district magnitude
District magnitude = number of representatives elected per district/constituency. The magnitude of the regions used for EP elections ranges from 3 (NE England) to 10 (SE England)
The smaller the magnitude, the greater the "effective threshold", or vote share required to get elected in that district
A rough rule of thumb: the effective threshold is 75%/(m+1), where m is the district magnitude tcd.ie/Political_Scie…
For a ten-seat region, you probably need 75/(10+1)= 6.8% of the vote to get elected. For a three seat region, it's ~19%
You cannot (easily) move from these regional thresholds to national thresholds tcd.ie/Political_Scie… again
But district magnitude (rather than methods of seat allocation like d'Hondt) are what create incentives for parties to coalesce
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Jeremy Pocklington said that ministers had ignored civil service advice concerning the £3.9bn Towns Fund, and had instead applied [ahem!] "their own qualitative assessment" (3/n)
The basis for the claim is that the proportion of mask-wearers who hate, resent or think badly of non-mask wearers (58%) is greater than the proportion of Remainers who think badly of Leavers (33%) (p. 11 of report) (2/n)
First problem with this: in order for something to be divisive, it's got to divide society, and the more evenly it divides society, the more divisive it is. But the (short) report doesn't show what % of the population wear a mask. (3/n)
Tonight I'll be presenting my #APSA2020 paper, "The voting power of demographic groups". You can find the paper at drive.google.com/file/d/1G-SHiy… and a video presentation at (1/n)
The idea behind the paper is simple: the power of a voter group is the number of seats where the result would have been different had that voter group not voted—or alternately, the number of seats in which that voter group was pivotal (2/n)
The implementation is also simple, in a sense, and relies on multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) plus some post-hoc adjustments (3/n)
Difficult to think how you would test the claim: democracies are generally richer, and richer countries have different climate preferences and capabilities. Rich non-democracies also tend to be natural resource rich, which further shifts preferences