Another POV on this issue @jwangARK and @andrewchen: Raw labor is becoming more valuable now that the unemployment rate in the US is plumbing new lows and 7.5 million jobs are vacant because they don’t pay enough or because of a skill-set mismatch.
After a long slide, productivity growth is accelerating once again and will benefit both wages and profitability, perhaps the former more than the latter because of labor shortages.
.@ARKInvest believes that five innovation platforms spawning 14 technologies will cause much stronger than expected productivity growth, turbocharging economic activity. Opportunities to move up the economic ladder will be plentiful.
According to @skorusARK’s research, #robots that work alongside humans, collaborative robots, will permeate most industries and leverage the productivity of humans as they drop toward $10,000 per robot during the next five to ten years.
Job displacement will be an issue, but the college loan crisis is putting a spotlight on the ROI of higher education relative to apprenticeships, nano degrees and professional certificates from online short courses, and other forms of training.
The innovation platforms evolving now will be net job creators and, as productivity ramps, so will wages.
The message here is one of great hope! I believe that we should be inspiring, educating, and encouraging the #Uber drivers and others who aspire to better lives - and most do - to pursue careers associated with disruptive innovation.
Uber drivers, in particular, need to plan for a change, as #autonomous technology will subsume their livelihoods. Those of us focused on the new world have an obligation to let them know about both the risks and the opportunities!
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After I recorded “ITK” on Friday, today the VIX (Equity Volatility Index) shot up to 65, the fourth highest level in the past 40 years: after “portfolio insurance” failed on Black Monday in October 1987, Lehman went under in 2008, and COVID hit in 2020. What does this move mean?
In 1987 and 2020, the panic/cathartic moves in the VIX created significant buying opportunities, particularly for stocks trounced during those downturns. In 2008, however, after the VIX spiked, the broad based equity markets did not bottom for another six months in March, 2009.
In our view, the spike in the VIX today stems from conditions resembling both 1987 and 2008. On Black Monday in 1987, portfolio insurance failed because those relying on it tried to cash out at the same time, much like those relying on the carry trade with Japan today.
I’d argue that no other executive is as aligned with shareholders as @elonmusk, who committed to no salary, no bonus, no stock comp FOR 10 YEARS, unless he created tremendous value for @Tesla shareholders.
Moreover, Musk will not be able to cash in on his options until 5 years after exercising them. Based on this pay package, Elon has worked without compensation since 2018, and IMPORTANTLY current shareholders will benefit from another 5+ years of Elon at the helm.
What were the odds that Musk would hit the goals in his comp package? Although @TashaARK and @skorusARK published our model in 2018 showing that, with brilliant execution, the targets were possible, most analysts, auto manufacturers, and media thought they were laughable.
I believe the Delaware court decision, forcing #Tesla to void the March 2018 vote on Elon Musk’s performance-based pay package, is un-American, an assault on investor rights, and an insult to the Board of Directors of one of the most stunningly successful companies in US history.
I have known Robyn Denholm, Chair of Tesla’s Board, professionally for 17 years since she was named Juniper Networks CFO in 2007. Robyn was and is an independent Director on Tesla’s Compensation Committee.
Robyn is a professional of unquestionable integrity with a no-nonsense, objective, truth-wins-out philosophy. In 2014, when Tesla named her to its Board, I remember thinking that she would add a fresh pair of eyes and enhanced rigor to every part of the process she touched.
Government statistics do not seem to be capturing how weak the economy is. Many companies are reporting shockingly weak revenues. UPS’s US delivery volume growth is worse today than in 2007-2009. After falling for nearly two years, it dropped another ~11% last quarter.
At first I thought that Amazon still was taking share and causing problems, but this chart suggests that market share has changed very little since 2020.
This week, another economic bellwether, 3M, reported that global organic sales dropped more than 3% year over year on a local currency basis last quarter. The services side of the economy is unlikely to escape the global monetary tightening that is gripping these companies.
China is exporting deflation in a more profound way than I believe many economists and strategists appreciate. All else equal, the 15% depreciation in the yuan relative to the dollar in the last year should have increased its PPI inflation rate by 15%. Instead it has dropped 4%.
In other words, the deflationary vortex emanating from China is approaching 20% (15%+4%), highlighted by the burgeoning defaults in Chinese real estate and trust companies.
After it entered the World Trade Organization in 2001, China’s real GDP grew at a double digit rate for nearly 20 years. Rapid growth can cover many economic sins, typically excessive debt and associated leverage. Those excesses are surfacing in China now.
Ironically, as crypto assets soared during the Silicon Valley Bank meltdown, this administration suggested that investors in regional banks - equity and bond holders - should prepare to be “wiped out” in the aftermath of an unprecedented 20-fold increase in the Fed funds rate.
Now we are hearing anecdotes not only that businesses and individuals are hedging their fiat assets with some crypto assets but that they also are lowering risk and increasing returns by shifting from low yielding bank deposits into higher yielding money market funds, a win-win.
As a result, now that they can borrow at will from a government facility at ~4.5%, regional banks seem to be moving from a liquidity crisis to a slower moving solvency crisis.