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Justin Wolfers Profile picture
@JustinWolfers
May 18, 2019 • 3 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
Australian democracy is amazing.

Aussies are voting today. All of them, because voting is compulsory. Lines are short. Postal voting is easy. There's no voter suppression. No gerrymandering, because district lines are independently drawn. And everyone enjoys a #democracysausage.
And apart from that one incident at Engadine Maccas in 1997 after the Cronulla Sharks lost the Super League final, Australian politics is pretty clean.
It looks like it’ll be an enormous electoral upset in Australia as the conservative government looks set to win after losing more than fifty polls in a row, then losing exit polls.

Don’t think I’ve ever seen as big of an electoral surprise in my lifetime. #auspol

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More from @JustinWolfers

Justin Wolfers Profile picture
Jul 17
I don't hate this policy as much as I thought I would bc this isn't traditional rent control.

Think of it as macro policy—setting a nominal anchor when the Fed's target isn't working—rather than as micro policy setting the relative price of housing.

The details really matter.
The proposed controls appear not to apply to new construction. And so they still allow the price signal to provide an incentive for new construction.

Blunting price signal is bad — to the extent that it affects those at the margin. But this policy is mostly infra-marginal.
Also, these are price control on the rate of change of rent, rather than on its level. If *relative* prices are somewhat coherent now, and the policy is temporary, they'll stay somewhat coherent for at least a few years.
Read 9 tweets
Justin Wolfers Profile picture
Mar 6
This striking pattern of Trump under-performing his poll numbers continues. According to 538, Trump was meant to win:
- Massachusetts by 37 (NYT says he's up by 23)
- Tennessee by 69 (he's up 57)
- Texas by 64 (he's up 56)
- Virginia by 49 (he's up by 29)
The exception:
- North Carolina by 46 (he's up 51)
Plus in those states with more sparse polling there's no 538 average. But the final Trump-Haley poll suggested Trump would win:
- Alabama by 75 (he's up 68)
- Oklahoma by 77 (he's up 66)
- Maine 58 by (he's up 47)
- Minnesota by 64 (he's up 41)
- Utah by 27 (he's up 14)
Most striking, of course, is Vermont.

There were two polls, and they put Trump up by +30 and +28, respectively. At this point the NYT says Haley will win, by about 4 points. Image
Read 6 tweets
Justin Wolfers Profile picture
Dec 22, 2023
Are we there yet?

Yes kids, we are: The inflation measure the Fed targets (core PCE) has run at an annualized rate of 1.9% over the past six months, *below* the Fed's two percent target.

This isn't a one-off blip; it's six months of sustained low inflation.
Core PCE inflation over the past year was 3.2%, but that tells us a lot about what was happening in late 2022.

Over the past 6 months, inflation was 1.9%; over the prior 6 months it was 4.5%. As those high rates "fall out" of the 12 month window, year-ended inflation will fall. Image
Inflation is now lower than when President Biden took office.
Read 7 tweets
Justin Wolfers Profile picture
Dec 7, 2023
There's no question people are telling pollsters they're miserable about the economy. But riddle me this: Why can't we find evidence of this pessimism in anything other that public opinion polls?

Every non-poll based indicator of confidence suggests folks are optimistic [thread]
Take consumption. If folks were worried about their economic future, you might think they would be squirrelling money away for the hard times coming. But they're spending like they expect ongoing economic strength.
Or investment. If our future were grim, businesses wouldn't want to invest to serve a shrinking market. But they're investing at robust rates.
Read 10 tweets
Justin Wolfers Profile picture
Nov 22, 2023
Lemme take a moment to fact check this.
(Spoiler: Every single claim is wrong.) 🧵
Let's start with the claim "uncooked turkey" is 7.2% more expensive. That's actually the CPI for a broader category of "other uncooked poultry" which includes Turkey.

But turkeys? The USDA says the retail price of fresh Hens is down -7.6% and fresh Toms are down -8.1% Image
The observation that retail turkey prices is down is confirmed by the Farm Bureau, which says they're down -5.6%. fb.org/news-release/c…
Image
Read 10 tweets
Justin Wolfers Profile picture
Nov 21, 2023
An absolutely bonkers example of the bad-news bias (and a failure to take Econ 101) in econ reporting: The @WSJ observes that the price of metals used in electric vehicles are crashing, and somehow infers that it will create shortages and snarl adoption of EV's. Image
The best part: The headline assures us that this is bad for Biden.
But to be clear, it's not just a bad news bias: It's also bad economics.

"Oh no, my product will definitely fail because my input costs are too low," said no producer ever.
Read 4 tweets

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