Thread by @CalibreObscura

[THREAD]

ISIS have just released a new video (Circa 1 hour ago) from #Turkey. Although this video is similar to others- namely a few masked indivuals pledging allegience to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, they are substantially better armed than some previous videos.
1/

Ofc, Turkey is in close proximity to multiple conflicts so there's high quantities of arms available, particularly from greater Idlib &t he conflict with the PKK.

Let's start with what's behind: A SVD DMR, PKM MG, & RPG-7 with a potent PG-7VM warhead, likely Bulgarian-made.
2/

The other arms appear to be two AKMS variants- I'd assume Russian or Romanian AKMS, along with Eastern Bloc Grenades- likely F1 or UZRGM grenades as well as a Glock, which is probably a G19 Gen3.

So what does this signify of their capabilties? And where are they from?
3/

IMHO, the most likely source for these arms is greater #Idlib, which is both floating with arms & has multiple ISIS cells. These cells have also shown the ability to conduct "remote control" of attacks abroad (For ex, Lebanon 2018).

Here's HTS with a very similar RPG warhead.
4/

Whilst the close proximity & ISIS networks make getting arms from Idlib possible, the cell also have made a deliberate choice in showing off fairly potent arms- the PKM/SVD/PG-7VM offer good capability against troops from long ranges, or against armour.
5/

Whilst the AKs are somewhat pedestrian, they are also obviously extremely effective at mass-casualty events. What IS have chosen to show off here is intended to be a sharp reminder to Turkey, and others of what it could choose to do, against civilians, troops or armour.
6/

It's also likely that this isn't all they are armed with- I'd expect more AKs, more pedestrian RPG warheads, and covert options such as suppressed pistols. (Example from Yemen).

Whilst this is a media op too, these fighters could be very dangerous.

[END]

Correction: I meant F1 or other Soviet grenades, based on the seeming UZRGM pattern fuzes.

https://twitter.com/CalibreObscura/status/1149015698448015360