Just a couple words of commentary before the charts. Friday's move against the entire US U sector was incredibly reactionary and opportunistic. As we have discussed in the past couple weeks the bigger US stocks were rolling over...
...from an oscillator perspective and were technically vulnerable. had broken down from its price trend. had just failed a test of resistance. None of this could have predicted Friday IMO but it did hint that down was the next move.
On top of that, this was always going to be a "sell the news" event in my eyes. This was discussed previously and others were of the same opinion. Coming into Friday there were very few people that would be buying at the levels of the previous few closes.
Now we mix in a overnight rumor that was missing key information and the stage was set. If I was of a shorting mind set this would have been a great setup. Nobody interested in buying, some situational holders that didn't care much about the overall thesis, bad news backdrop.
Once the first level of stops was smashed algos come in and reinforce the trade. Most people were just staring at their screens. Pretty fascinating really. It is good to keep in mind that this is the volatility potential for the sector in both directions. Upside is more fun
Personally speaking, I am reasonably well diversified and my positions are right sized. I thought this before hand but know it now. My accounts actually had a small gain on Friday which surprised me. Even before knowing this I watched the action with detachment.
I am more speculative than many here but diversification is the key. My big regret is that I am pretty much all in right now. I wish I could have been a buyer of a few names on Friday afternoon. The technicals will be fascinating to watch in the days and weeks to come. 👍👍👍
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1/9 Notes on the @CruxInvestor interview with $EU's Sheriff.
Not done acquiring - $LAM makes so much sense here but the Oz assets don't fit. $AEC seems like a poor fit after listening to Bill unless they would sell partial assets. Could M&A of sorts with $AZZ be beneficial?
2/9 Not a single jurisdiction - Texas is clears a key to the strategy but New Mexico is the cornerstone of the strategy. It would be interesting to see the economics of trucking or railing the resin to Texas. Is the current plant(s)) enough or does $EU need another? ...
1/9 Anybody have time for #MonkeyMath? We don’t know if Appia will have to same resource size or value as Round Top. What we can do is use comps to arrive at a value for Appia IF IT DOES. Then makes some extrapolations at different resource sizes.
2/9 One thing Appia has going for it (and this is a very big deal) is that they will have lower capital costs due to the province providing the capital intensive processing facility.
3/9 Working from the end, Tom estimated that TMRC might arrive at a $5.07 price per share based on 46.6M shares outstanding and a future market cap of $236M dollars. That was based on 30% ownership at the time of writing.
1/6 - Not sure how much I trust my recollection because I am squarely middle aged now and I was pretty new to #uranium back then. I think everyone sees the parallels now although the COVID shutdown and its impact on global supply chains is new.
2/6 - I don't really recall energy security being a factor in the 2000's either. Uranium miners as an investment were very unloved (familiar?) When I told friends I invested in them as a them they looked at me like I had three eyes.
3/6 - I was a Jimmy Dines student back then so many of the stocks I initially bought were from his newsletter. It got to the point where if you had a stock watchlist you could spot the telltale activity in the equities he was about to recommend. That became a fun game.
1/X - Gonna share some thoughts on possibilities with from here. I see some similarities to REEMF and want to draw those out. I am not trying to talk the stock down as I think it is great and has good returns ahead.
2/X - I am creating a plan and if I am close I will re-enter lower when the technical risk is lower. If it runs away (a real possibility) I am very happy with my gains and will be happy for those that make future gains.
3/X - Chart 1. A busy chart but in trying to find the patterns in this burst this seems to fit best. There is a clear 5 wave impulse which has ended and should be at least a 3 wave correction.