Thread by @ShachiKurl

Good Morning! Lots to unpack in our latest #cdnpoli numbers. Let's get to it shall we? Feel free to follow along, our read the whole report at: angusreid.org/federal-issues…

So here's the graph many folks begin & end with, (but there's more!). This month we continue to see the CPC hold a comfortable lead, as the Liberals are starting to slowly climb. Will their task over the next three months be simple, or Sisyphean?

Of course, it's not one campaign, it's several & always useful to take a deeper dive into demographics. Let's start with the regional picture. The Liberals are more competitive/have regained leads in QC & Atlantic Canada, competitive in ON, gaining in BC.

Let's look at age & gender now. The strength of the CPC= its appeal to male voters across all age groups. Women under 55 = more likely to support NDP or Greens. 1/3 women across all age groups support the Liberals:

While the Liberals do hold an advantage among Canadians with a university education, the gap is just 8 pts over the number of equally educated Canadians who support the CPC.

Here's something quite telling: check out just how many Cdns are already voting in protest of one party rather than in support of the other they like:

Again, it's always important to dig beyond the horserace #s. Like crack to political junkies I know, but vote certainty also key. The @CPC_HQ vote is rock solid relative to the others:

@CPC_HQ One of the keys to @liberal_party victory in 2015 was capturing the imagination of younger voters. The worry, or opportunity for the Liberals is the younger vote is less locked in today:

@CPC_HQ @liberal_party Here's something: #PMJT's approval numbers continue to be a big worry for him & the party but *slightly* fewer disapprove this month, instead saying they don't know how they feel:

@CPC_HQ @liberal_party But this... this has to be the image that keeps @liberal_party strategists up at night. Trudeau IS the Liberal brand. For a while younger voters stayed with him, but not these days.

@CPC_HQ @liberal_party Cdns aren't all that enamoured of #PMJT, but then, they're not really in love with any major party leader. Only @ElizabethMay has a net positive favourability score:

@CPC_HQ @liberal_party @ElizabethMay But hey, like Tina says, what's love got to do with it? @AndrewScheer may not give Cdns the warm & fuzzies, but they do pick him as Best PM, followed by @JustinTrudeau, followed by Don't Know.

@CPC_HQ @liberal_party @ElizabethMay @AndrewScheer @JustinTrudeau But like a smart friend observed this morning... #elxn43 isn't going to be one campaign, but several... and it's all about the top issues, which are quite different depending where in the country you are:

@CPC_HQ @liberal_party @ElizabethMay @AndrewScheer @JustinTrudeau Naturally, different parties play to different strengths... here's a perspective on who does better where, on issues:

@CPC_HQ @liberal_party @ElizabethMay @AndrewScheer @JustinTrudeau Now, political yakkers spend a lot of time talking about "the economy", but really, it's not "the economy" but "whose economy". Again, depending on region, age & income, peoples' economic priorities vary. This can't be ignored:

@CPC_HQ @liberal_party @ElizabethMay @AndrewScheer @JustinTrudeau So what do we take from all this?

First, the @liberal_party is starting to climb that hill, albeit slowly... the Libs are far from done.

@CPC_HQ @liberal_party @ElizabethMay @AndrewScheer @JustinTrudeau BUT... the governing party continues to be bedeviled by a fracture of the left among them, the @NDP and @CanadianGreens. Neither of the latter two are showing enough oomph (yet) to challenge the @liberal_party as party of the left, but enough to give @CPC_HQ the advantage

@CPC_HQ @liberal_party @ElizabethMay @AndrewScheer @JustinTrudeau @NDP @CanadianGreens The other major takeaway, that unshakable, rock solid @CPC_HQ vote, particularly among older voters, who historically, have a higher propensity to vote. This gives the Conservatives a significant vote turnout advantage.

@CPC_HQ @liberal_party @ElizabethMay @AndrewScheer @JustinTrudeau @NDP @CanadianGreens The other, other, factor... the undecideds. Undecideds are often written off as non-voters. But my spidey sense tells me they may well be disaffected @liberal_party voters... will they come back into the big red tent? Let's see.

@CPC_HQ @liberal_party @ElizabethMay @AndrewScheer @JustinTrudeau @NDP @CanadianGreens So that's all for now folks. Again, you can read the full report here: angusreid.org/federal-issues…. As always, thanks for following along! #cdnpoli