Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #elxn43

Most recents (24)

These early #cpcldr polls of the general population do tell us a bit about what candidates might be viable and which are unlikely to compete, but I need to make a point about the “winability” measure that most are attempting to measure

Like the #elxn43 polls, I need to point out the importance of “where” instead of “how much”

An overwhelming approval or favourability in AB,BC &/or SK could make it appear one candidate has an advantage, while trailing among the remaining 2/3rds of the ridings in #cpcldr
So #cdnmedia should be cautious about #cpcldr polls that don’t provide regional breakouts

And Conservatives examining these with regards to “winability” should consider this same factor

Read 5 tweets
Here is the Economic and Fiscal Update. A few comments follow.....1/
On the overall trajectory:
- deficit is up for first few years, but projected at only $8.6B in 24-25. Lots of budgetary room.

- debt/GDP ticks up until 20-21 before coming back down. Fairly stable.

- debt servicing is stable.
Two points of context on debts/deficits.

Do we have fiscal room in case of a recession?

Yes. /3

Read 13 tweets
ICYMI, yesterday @cleanenergycan & @Pollara released an #elxn43 exit poll that explored (amongst other things) how #climatechange factored in & #climateaction priorities for the LPC minority gov’t.… A quick recap: 1/ #cdnpoli
67% of Canadian voters want the new Liberal gov't to either “enact the climate change policies they campaigned on” (37%) or to “enact stronger climate change policies than they campaigned on—to do more at a faster pace on this issue” (30%). A clear mandate for more #ClimateAction
The desire for stronger action is popular across party lines. Even 33% of Liberal voters want stronger climate policies than what was in the party’s platform, and majorities of Bloc (51%), Green (64%) or NDP (49%) voters share this sentiment. Stark contrast w CPC voters. 3/
Read 13 tweets
1/28 #CDNpoli #CDNmedia #Elxn43 #ForeignInterference

As some of you already know, my blockbuster investigation RE dubious interference in #Elxn43 (mostly via social media) is now being censored by Twitter, so it says "tweet unavailable" in RTs & threads

2/28 #CDNpoli #CDNmedia #Elxn43 #ForeignInterference

Several of you have sent screencaps to prove this censorship is happening

I thank @TrippettaRaffe for being the 1st to let me know, especially because Twitter doesn't notify account holders when it censors individual posts
3/28 #CDNpoli #CDNmedia #Elxn43 #ForeignInterference

An hour after @TrippettaRaffe notified that my investigation is being censored by Twitter, my fiancé was able to confirm the same issue

Of note, he's a federal govt scientist who now can't see my post

Read 30 tweets
1/9 #CDNpoli #USpoli #UKpoli #ForeignInterference

So, I set out to find contact info for Twitter to get in touch RE incidental censorship of political journos due to new company policy

Upon digging through the SEC I discovered theres a #TwitterPAC & I'm too busy to deal with it
2/9 #CDNpoli #USpoli #UKpoli #ForeignInterference

The #TwitterPAC is interesting enough to share though, in case any American journos wish to inspect

A few highlights:

- Twitter uses Deutsche Bank
- They donated to Chuck Grassley
- They also donated to the Tea Party's Mike Lee
3/9 #CDNpoli #USpoli #UKpoli #ForeignInterference

Today Dorsey stated

"We've made the decision to stop all political advertising on Twitter globally. We believe political message reach should be earned, not bought"

Yet this conflicts with a #TwitterPAC…
Read 11 tweets
1. Before he was elected, @FordNation promised he would see the Basic Income Pilot through...

Once elected, he killed it.

Before the #Elxn43 vote was held, he said he wouldn't fight the #CarbonTax in court if the @CPC_HQ lost.

He's going ahead with it anyway

#cdnpoli #ONpoli
2. Before the #Elxn43 vote was held, NB Premier @BlaineHiggs he said he wouldn't fight the #CarbonTax in court if the @CPC_HQ lost.

While he will go ahead with a Made in NB carbon pricing scheme, he is still involved in the court case.

#NBPoli #CdnPoli
3. Before he was elected, AB Premier @JKenney promised cuts wouldn't go beyond a certain point and that he'd respect city charters.

He waited until the #Elxn43 vote was held to drop a buget in which he betrayed those promises and many more.

#ABPoli #CdnPoli
Read 6 tweets
This essential #elxn43 piece by @DrCherylT got me thinking about the connection between politeness and racism in Canada.

I’ve tried to distill some recent learning & reflections, informed by Robin DiAngelo’s ‘White Fragility’. 1/12…
The idea that a person who is polite is not racist, or that racism is somehow connected to politeness, is deeply entrenched.

We are hardwired to think that because we are ‘good people’, we are not racist. 2/12
Racism is understood as something committed by ‘bad people’ with ill intent.

Robin DiAngelo calls this the “good/bad binary”: the idea that racism is a question of good and bad people, and good people aren’t racist. 3/12
Read 12 tweets
A big picture /thread for the 🧢 team to consider.

Not on #elxn43 but the go forward ⏩⏩.

12 simple questions and ideas. Nothing more or less.

So we can win a 🇨🇦 majority next 🗳 #cdnpoli
1. In pursuit of 40% popular vote, have Conservatives accidentally become a minority proposition with voters? What ever happened to the Silent Majority. Make a broader appeal and fall short instead of trying to tack on extra voters to the 1/3 who are with us. #cdnpoli
2. Values and emotions build political brands. Conservatives mostly stuck on taxes and finances (cognitive arguments). Why do we think values and emotions are the exclusive territory of Liberals or Trudeau?
Read 15 tweets
Eric Grenier does not have a degree in math or statistics. Is that why he misinterprets data for personal promotion? I'm not sure. But let's read this together.…
We're going to talk about this table, and what Grenier thinks it means.
I openly invite @VoiceOfFranky to criticize my take.
Read 17 tweets
This is a fantastic simulation of #proportionalrepresentation.
The key question is: "Now that Canadians have elected a minority govt, will the Liberals be influenced by the NDP and the Greens, who both have called for #electoralreform?"

You can help! Please SIGN AND SHARE out petition calling for cooperation and a National Citizens' Assembly on #ElectoralReform!!…
1/ The headline inside the article is misleading, suggesting the Conservatives could have "won" the election, since every simulation here has their seat count changing hardly at all.
Read 9 tweets
THREAD: Some preliminary insights into the dynamics of #elxn43 as observed from the 1.9 million responses to @VoteCompass.

The data are weighted to control for selection bias and thus permit representative inferences as to the population of Canadian voters.

#cdnpoli [1/12]
@VoteCompass The findings from @VoteCompass differ from #elxn43 polls both in terms of the size of the sample and the fact that it is continuously accrued across the course of the campaign. [2/12]
@VoteCompass Among voters who voted differently in #elxn43 than they did in #elxn42, the highest level of vote switching was from the @NDP to the @liberal_party.

In 2019, the Liberals lost a roughly equivalent share of their 2015 voters to the @NDP and @CPC_HQ.

#cdnpoli @VoteCompass [3/12]
Read 12 tweets
With a wonderful #ScheerlessTuesday, Canada has shown the world we will not fall to the .@CPC_HQ's shameful and divisive rhetoric. Well done Canada.

I have put together an analysis of the ridings which were split but would've gone progressive.

#cdnpoli🇨🇦 #elxn43
We begin in the riding of West Nova, NS, where the CPC is gifted a seat by the NDP and the GRN. This seat was a tossup according to @338Canada.

This seat should've been LPC.
Fundy Royal, NB looks like a landslide but CPC+PPC still wouldn't have been able to keep up with the LPC/GRN/NDP. This seat was a statistical tie on 338CA.

the Anti-choice CPC receives another gift from the progressives.

Anti-choicers: 22,966.
Progressives: 23,735.
Read 48 tweets
An example of why election reform matters.

I live in Simcoe North, a historically Conservative riding with @bruce_stanton holding office since 2006 and confirmed for another term yesterday.

The problem starts when you look at the actual numbers.
While Stanton is fairly well respected in the riding, he actually pulled in a minority of votes and even combining the 3 conservative parties running locally still nets a minority of the vote.
The majority of the riding voted for one of the progressive candidates but, because of how the votes split up, none of the progressives won. This happened because the progressive candidates polled closer together while Stanton polled far better than other conservative candidates
Read 11 tweets
An #ELXN43 and #PPC related thread:

A lot is currently being said about #Canada "rejecting" populism, particularly by the @globeandmail & other left-leaning outlets; they want to call it a dead party.

How is a 2% party "dead" in its first election?
Let's take a look at the closest analog that we have to the #PPC in #Canada; The #GreenPartyOfCanada.

They were founded in 1983, taking 0.21% in their first federal election; 1984. On that alone the #PPC2019 result was significantly ahead of the first showing of the Greens.
Now, let's take a look at the progression of the #GreenPartyOfCanada to its first #HouseOfCommons seat.

It took them until 2008 to get their first MP in #ElizabethMay; it took them 25 years to get a seat.

Now, the #PPC didn't win a seat, so we can't compare that, however...
Read 8 tweets
We need to talk about why the NDP is underperforming expectations, underperforming 2015, and underperforming their leader's popularity.

I'd posit three interlocking explanations:

1. Strategic voting.
2. Regional splits and Québec.
3. Racism.

#elxn43 #cdnpoli
1. Every single time the Liberals feel electorally threatened, they demand that "progressive votes" unify behind them.

This gives them licence to campaign on the left and govern on the right, much to the detriment of good, "progressive" policy.

Very pernicious. #elxn43 #cdnpoli
2. The resurrection of the Bloc in Québec has taken directly from the seats the NDP won in 2011 and held in 2015.

FPTP treats a single plurality vote as more meaningful than overall percentages in regions. This makes it impossible to recognise actual gains.

#elxn43 #cdnpoli
Read 10 tweets
We have a healthy confederation when the federal government governs for all Canadians and provinces, not just the AB Petrostate, though the latter has done well under the Liberals. Perhaps Mr. Wilson can tell us what the Harper government did for Alberta? #cdnpoli #elxn43 #abpoli
The current TM pipeline - 50+ years old - was a Liberal government Crown corporation project before being sold to the private sector that was MIA when AB needed post Leduc markets. /2
2/ The first Syncrude project, in trouble in the mid-70s, was bailed out by the PET Liberal government when it forked over one-half of the stake that Atlantic Richfield decided to renege on. See Winnipeg Agreement. /3
Read 6 tweets
Now that the campaigning is over while we await the final results of #elxn43 I am going to do a lame ass #thread on the winners and losers of this campaign, in no particular order.
Winner - Jagmeet Singh. I mean literally he won this campaign basically single handed. And suck it to media clowns who played the "no clear winner card" after Singh wiped the floor with Trudeau during the English leaders debate. Singh may become a kingmaker for his efforts.
Loser - Trudeau. Not just because Singh kicked his ass but Trudeau went into this campaign in the lead and was well positioned to take another majority. His campaign was seriously lame & focused on demonizing and division. Everyone knows Trudeau is a "fake" vs. Singh who is real
Read 11 tweets
Happy election day! I am excited and hopeful and anxious and terrified. We have the chance to see a lot of change today, but we have a lot to lose. There is more on the line right now than ever before. So, I am writing this. #elxn43

1) Take care of each other. check in on your friends, your community, your coworkers, people you've never met. check in on the Indigenous people in your life, the women, the LGBTQ community. they will be sad and scared and hurting, and they might need help.
2) Take care of yourself. if you're like me, politics is deeply personal and takes a toll on your mental (and physical) wellbeing. trying to save the world is hard and taxing and nobody can do it all the time. remember that you don't owe anything to anybody but yourself.
Read 15 tweets
1/ Bilingual thread! #elxn43

Time to vote in Canada! Here are some interviews and op-eds on the Christian Right and the Canadian elections.

C'est jour d'élection au Canada! Voici quelques entrevues et articles sur la droite chrétienne et les élections.

2/ Voici une version en français de l'article ci-dessus.

Here's a French version of the article above.

#cdnpoli #elxn43…
3/ I also did an interview on the "Unplanned" movie in the context of the Canadien elections. If you understand French, you can watch it at the link below.

J'ai aussi accordé une entrevue sur le film "Unplanned" dans le contexte des élections canadiennes.
Read 10 tweets
You may hear people saying the CPC will cut healthcare. You may hear CPC supporters say that's fear-mongering. But, is it, really? Let's take a look. 1/25
#cdnpoli #elxn43 #Vote #NeverScheer #healthcare #ChooseForward
The National Citizen's Coalition was incorporated in 1975 by an insurance agent names Colin M. Brown. Mr. Brown had begun advertising back in 1967 against the Canada Health Act. 2/25
Our universal health care was the NCC's primary target, but over the 4 decades it has been in existence, it has also campaigned against;

- The Canadian Wheat Board

- the Canadian Labour Congress' strike protesting wage and price controls in 1975

Read 25 tweets
Election eve in Canada. Our choice once again comes down to strategic vs ideological in spite of what was promised. Once again I'm compelled to prevent the worst case scenario: empowering bigotry, racists, denialists/do-nothingers & outright proto-fascists #elxn43 #cdnpoli THREAD
Haven't voted yet. Hard to imagine not voting strategically given the Conservative can lose in my riding. Electoral Reform part hurts. So's a pipeline when AB's Kenney is trashing the climate work that was part of the deal I came to uneasily accept in the first place /2 #elxn43
On top of that in my riding Thana Boonlert is running for the Greens. He's the real deal & will make an excellent leader when this city/province is mature enough to face reality. I want people like Thana in office. We *NEED* folks like Thana in office /3 #elxn43 #cdnpoli
Read 21 tweets
No chance yet to read @Martin_Lukacs's well-researched new book "The Trudeau Formula" about the TRUTH behind PM @justintrudeau & his @liberal_party gov't? Ceck out some of the endorsements from David #Suzuki, @NaomiAKlein & more
@Martin_Lukacs @JustinTrudeau @liberal_party @NaomiAKlein For a quicker read before #elxn43 tmrw, check out @Martin_Lukacs pithy opinion piece in the @guardian @guardianopinion :… (warning, his analysis seems to piss off @liberal_party hacks, and that's not a bad thing in #cdnpoli )
@Martin_Lukacs @JustinTrudeau @liberal_party @NaomiAKlein @guardian @guardianopinion Also check out what @Martin_Lukacs says in his interview with @hansnf on @rabbleca: "Progressive branding" has played a huge role in @Liberal_party operations,… #elxn43 #cdnpoli
Read 9 tweets
REMINDER: #Trudeau LIED lots in 2015, including in his "promise" to restore door-to-door postal service. Listen on @CPAC_TV to what then 3rd-place opposition party leader (now PM) said at 23:20-24:30 & at 11:30-11:47…
@CPAC_TV @JustinTrudeau @LDNLibs @liberal_party @KateYoungMP @pfragiskatos @cupw @cupwvancouver @CanadianLabour @drichmond3872 @People4postiesx The same "promise" is also repeated by @JustinTrudeau at 9:31-9:38 & 14:20-45, in French with English voice-over, check it out on @CPAC_TV :…
& ask: WHY would anyone ever trust @liberal_party candidates like @pfragiskatos @KateYoungMP @TOAdamVaughan?
Read 5 tweets
Last night @jesse_helmer and I were out supporting @vankayak. I knocked on a door, and it was opened by a man and a little girl. We started talking about Adam. The little girl got very (!!) excited, and said she wanted to meet him. They grabbed their coats. /1
The little girl took my hand, and we ran (and I mean ran!) to find Adam. He was busy talking to other neighbours, but as soon as we found him, Adam dropped to his knees and began talking about why he wants to be this little girl’s MP.

She was beaming. /2
The man turned to Adam and said, “I can’t wait until you’re in power.” Without missing a beat, Adam replies, “In service, you mean.”

The man smiled. “Yeah, man. Yeah. Thank you.” /3
Read 4 tweets

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