Here's where I stand on not reinforcing the #LFC squad.
We got 97 points last season but didn't win the EPL because we're competing with one of the greatest club sides ever.
We also got 97 points through a series of positive skews that don't happen or align every season. Namely:
Availability of best players
Set plays/Penalties
Outrageous winning goals (Everton, Spurs)
Purple patch finishing (mane, Origi)
But even with all those positive skews, it only took a minor run of stodgy attacking form in Jan/Feb to drop the points that saw us eventually end up behind City. Hell, even the defence wobbled for a couple of games.
In jan/Feb, Salah went through a dry spell, Firmino was fatigued and running through treacle. There was no 4th high quality attacker to keep the attack fresh and firing and turn those draws into wins. The midfield couldn't step up either.
From a historical perspective, results in jan/Feb weren't even that bad.
But "not bad" isn't good enough when you are up against this Man City team, you need perfection. One minor wobble for 4/5 games in the season and its over.
Back to the coming season, our long term results trend and performance data suggest a baseline performance of 86 points.
I'm fine with 86 as it means we're a very good team. but most of our fans will lose their shit cos it means they already know we won't win the league
positive skews could see us move 90+ again but negative skews (e.g. VVD/Alisson injury) could see us less than 80.
It's my belief that quality reinforcements would:
1) move the needle upwards on our baseline performance
2) mitigate the risks of any negative skews.

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More from @DanKennett

Sep 8, 2021
It's time for my annual update of #EPL shot trends. After 14 years of drastic change we may finally be starting to stabilise. THREAD
1) Shots Outside The Box. Actually increased slightly again last season.
4.4 per team per match down from a peak of 6.6 in 2008/09
Conversion stabilising at just over 1 in 20
2) Shots inside the box. No trend at all here, goal scored every 7.5 shots
Read 11 tweets
Apr 20, 2021
If the ESL has been killed, this momentum needs to be used for more.
FIFA, UEFA, the EPL and FA all created the conditions for this to happen. It's their governance that has failed over 30 years, bankrolled by the Sky propaganda machine.
The whole lot needs a wrecking ball
FIFA corruption is legendary, culminating in the awarding of the World Cups to Russia and Qatar. Where was the united football front to force that to be reversed?
UEFA can't enforce its own rules and its Champions League is the primary source of all domestic league imbalance in Europe. Its new CL format is a worse version of the ESL
Read 5 tweets
Apr 19, 2021
In a parallel universe where the ESL plan is not announced, todays focus is solely on the approval of UEFA's, frankly awful, new CL format.
A 36 team, single group stage.
10 matches each randomly selected by algorithm.
The 2 highest ranked teams who didn't qualify for CL parachuted in.
Winner plays 17 CL matches
100 extra CL matches overall (!)
That's what was approved today and frankly, it's not worth fighting for.
Read 4 tweets
Apr 19, 2021
A reminder of the revised UEFA Champions League format that was, coincidentally, about to be approved today to start in 2024.
THREAD
36 teams in first phase, increase from 32 today.
2 of the places each season to be reserved for highest ranked teams that don't qualify through domestic performance.
Single group stage with all 36 teams playing 10 fixtures randomly selected by algorithm.
Top 8 qualify for knockout stage.
Clubs 9-24 play elimination matches to join top 8.
Round of 16/QF/SF/Final as today.
Read 4 tweets
Apr 19, 2021
The closest we've come to a ESL in my lifetime was Media Partners in 1998.
Here's a look at their proposals, many of which look remarkably similar to what was published yesterday.
THREAD
32 teams in 2 ESL divisions, including 4 English sides.
16 "founder members" and 16 others changing from year to year based on league champions and 2nd-4th placed clubs in big leagues.
Founder members based on 10 year performance. NO RELEGATION for 3 seasons.
Minimum 15 games per season, with max of 22.
Matches played midweek with domestic leagues at weekends.
Teams guaranteed between x2 and x3 revenue vs CL at that time.
Read 7 tweets
Jan 28, 2021
As nearly all teams have played 18 games, a thread checking in on who is ranked top/bottom of the #EPL for all the key numbers
Shots per match (FBREF)
16.0 City
15.8 LFC
15.6 Villa
14.5 Leeds
13.9 United
...
8.9 Newcastle
8.8 Sheff Utd
8.0 WBA
Shots conceded per match (FBREF)
7.3 City
7.9 LFC
8.9 Brighton
9.7 Chelsea
...
11.6 United (9th)
...
14.5 Leeds, Burnley
15.0 Newcastle
16.5 WBA
Read 15 tweets

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