It's time for my annual update of #EPL shot trends. After 14 years of drastic change we may finally be starting to stabilise. THREAD
1) Shots Outside The Box. Actually increased slightly again last season.
4.4 per team per match down from a peak of 6.6 in 2008/09
Conversion stabilising at just over 1 in 20
4.4 per team per match down from a peak of 6.6 in 2008/09
Conversion stabilising at just over 1 in 20
2) Shots inside the box. No trend at all here, goal scored every 7.5 shots
3) Penalties. Crazy increase 20/21 due to various VAR changes. a pen awarded every 3 matches!
Just 4 years ago it was a pen every 4.8 matches. Conversion rate 78.6% over 12 years
Just 4 years ago it was a pen every 4.8 matches. Conversion rate 78.6% over 12 years
4) Non-penalty shots
when you see analysis about xg/shot this is what you need to benchmark against
Conversion of all non-pen shots has stabilised in the 10%-10.5% range in the last 4 years (XG/Shot 0.1 to 0.105)
when you see analysis about xg/shot this is what you need to benchmark against
Conversion of all non-pen shots has stabilised in the 10%-10.5% range in the last 4 years (XG/Shot 0.1 to 0.105)
5) % of all shots inside the box. This actually declined last season
6) Big chances (1)
This Opta qualifier has a bad rep due to its subjective nature but there's a reason why people keep coming back to use them: 57% of all goals come from the 16% of the shots that are "big chances"
This Opta qualifier has a bad rep due to its subjective nature but there's a reason why people keep coming back to use them: 57% of all goals come from the 16% of the shots that are "big chances"
6) Big chances (2)
It's worth pointing out that for a subjective qualifier, the volume and conversion rate is remarkably stable
In fact the conversion rate of non-pen BC is *exactly* the same over the last 3 years (38.6%)
It's worth pointing out that for a subjective qualifier, the volume and conversion rate is remarkably stable
In fact the conversion rate of non-pen BC is *exactly* the same over the last 3 years (38.6%)
7) Non "Big Chance" shots
Shots in the box that aren't categorised as "big chances" have stabilised at a 1 in 15 conversion
Shots in the box that aren't categorised as "big chances" have stabilised at a 1 in 15 conversion
8) Defensive Errors
Finally, another major source of goals are defensive errors (which often have an overlap with big chances).
Last season, 10% of all goals came from defensive errors, typically its about 1 in 7 EPL goals that come from some kind of mistake.
Finally, another major source of goals are defensive errors (which often have an overlap with big chances).
Last season, 10% of all goals came from defensive errors, typically its about 1 in 7 EPL goals that come from some kind of mistake.
/End
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