Raoul Pal Profile picture
Aug 7, 2019 21 tweets 7 min read Read on X
A Currency Crisis?

When the long-term charts all start pointing to a single event risk, I pay attention.

When those charts are at the KEY level, I focus.

And when they break, it is time for action...

Something really BIG is going on...
We are at the most important juncture in FX markets in my entire 30 year career. The dollar appears at risk of an uncontrolled rise.

Let me show you...
The Fed Broad Trade Weighted Dollar Index is incredibly close to breaking the ENORMOUS cup and handle pattern at 130. Barely a half a percent away...
And this translates into the largest chart pattern in the history of FX - The ADXY Head and Shoulders Top. A pattern so big, I cant quite get my head around the outcome...a fall of 20% or more across ALL Asian major currencies...AND we are RIGHT on the CLIFF OF DEATH
We are also at the KEY juncture on the JP Morgan Emerging Markets Currency Index... new lows await, any day now...
And one currency, after another, is approaching, and then falling off, the CLIFF of DEATH... The Aussie broke a while ago and has been tumbling ever since...
The flightless Kiwi took its first step off the CLIFF last night...
The Korean Wan...Yikes! This is one of the most crucial levels in its history...These big wedge patterns tend to resolve in EXPLOSIVE moves to new all time highs (for the dollar vs KRW). Mind bending...
The Canadian Dollar looks like it is about to break the wedge for a RAPID move. The CAD is going to very quickly get a LOT weaker.
The Pound is drinking at the last chance saloon... it looks like it is going to parity...
The Euro has a few percent to go but its shuffling towards the CLIFF edge...
And the big disturbance in the Matrix is the CNY, which conceivably could go to new all time lows (highs on chart) versus the dollar. It's not my forecast but that chart suggests a higher probability than anyone suggests, even if the odds are still low. It is broken....
And this currency crisis of dollar strength is causing an enormous deflationary wave globally. The CRB is literally the second worst chart in the world, after the EU banks. And we are right on the fucking CLIFF OF DEATH. Right there. Today.
I think oil breaks lower, today.
Gold is rightly doing its job, sniffing out a BIG problem and is exploding higher, outperforming even the super strong dollar as gold begins to price in an end game of an eventual MASSIVE readjustment of the dollar (in 12 months? 18 months?) #GOLD $GLD
And $BTC #Bitcoin is doing its job of suggesting an alternative system is gaining in probability (it trades like call option on a new system, in my mind). The price moves are so ENORMOUS (and thus the increase in probabilities are so FAST) that you have to use log charts...
And the 10 Yr US bond suggests that bond yields are going to zero, as the deflationary wave spreads like wildfire...
And short term rates (2's) go to -2% or more (thats how you steepen the curve...yikes!).
And that is how you totally FUCK the banking system. The EU Banks are RIGHT on the CLIFF OF DEATH.
And the Japanese banks are right on the CLIFF OF DEATH too..
And that would be the end game for the pension system and a HUGE loss of wealth for Baby Boomer Retirees and the start of the Doom Loop of BBB downgrades and a potential freezing of the corporate credit markets...
You get the picture.

Sadly, we are at one of the BIGGEST junctures for markets in history. You may disagree with my assessment of the odds. It doesn't matter. But you simply CANNOT ignore the risk.

Bonds. Dollars. Bitcoin and Gold.

Thanks for paying attention.

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More from @RaoulGMI

Nov 10
We are very close to being in the Last Chance to Add Zone in crypto. The next step should be the memes breaking out and after that there is nothing to do but wait to take lifestyle chips off the table.

Here is $DOGE leading the breakout... 1/ Image
Here is $WIF about to break out... Image
And Smoking Chicken Fish will follow suit.. $SCF Image
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3. That debt is serviced via debasement via liquidity increases over time. Image
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With $BTC well over $70k... Im looking for the final confirmations from some others. $SOL over $185... 1/ Image
$SUI is breaking its consolidation now and should be headed to new ATH's Image
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Sep 17
$SUI is actiing like it is going to be one of the key Chosen Ones of the major new chains, if not THE Chosen One...

The chart has broken out of the inverse head and shoulders, which is an important first step. 1/Image
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But SUI is still in its early innings and the proof will have to be in successful appplications that scale built on top of the tech stack.

TVL is a small part of this and the Circle announcement is another good step. Gaming is a potential big breakout but still too early...
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Aug 8
Sui $SUI is the groundbreaking ultra-fast L1, super efficient, full blockchain ecosystem that came out of Meta's Diem project.

The idea is that it is built for the scale of 4 billion people... i.e turning Web2 > Web3 1/
I have been looking for signs of the next big L1 mover by looking at the relative charts of many compared to each other and have mentioned this methodology on many podcasts....
$SUI is starting to look very interesting from a price perspective, although still early and unconfirmed, it is showing signs of breaking out against most tokens.

This is SUI/USD... Image
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Macro Summer in beginning to take hold and should last at least for the rest of 2024 and into 2025.

2 yr yields have formed a large top with a potential objective to 2.5% 1/ Image
The NDX has probably completed it's healthy correction... Image
Its perfect timing during election years... Image
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