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Ciara McMillan Profile picture
@CiaraMcMillan4
Aug 14, 2019 • 3 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
I read this story, and I thought "Brexit in a nutshell"

arstechnica.com/?post_type=pos…
The so-called "experts" say that drinking bleach is harmful. I think the people in this country have had enough of experts.
There may be some short-term pain (and vomiting), but we must respect the will of the people who voted to drink bleach (after we told them it would be delicious and healthy).

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More from @CiaraMcMillan4

Ciara McMillan Profile picture
Sep 28, 2021
On #COVID vaccination for the 12-15 age group:

In children with preexisting conditions (eg poorly-controlled asthma) the risks of COVID infection clearly outweigh the risks of vaccination. The vaccine should be recommended in this group. This is in line with JCVI guidance.

1/🧵
For otherwise healthy 12-15 year olds, the decision is more nuanced. The JCVI correctly note that the margin of benefit is too small to support universal vaccination.

However, @CMO_England said that this group should be offered the vaccine. Some find this controversial...

2/🧵
Some argue that COVID is harmless in children, so a vaccine is unnecessary. It's not that simple, though. COVID can result in serious illness (or even death) in a small number of children.

fullfact.org/health/mail-un…

3/🧵
Read 8 tweets
Ciara McMillan Profile picture
Sep 28, 2021
A #COVID stats guide:
What's worse, a disease with higher transmissibility, or one with higher fatality rate?

Intuitively, it's "obvious" that the less-fatal, more-transmissible disease is preferable, so we shouldn't be scared of the Delta variant, right?

Wrong
1/🧵
A lot of people make this mistake, which is fine. Statistics can be counterintuitive, but here's a worked example to help you make sense of it.

Keeping the numbers simple: imagine an asymptomatic disease with reproductive rate (R) of 1 and a fatality rate of 1%.

2/🧵
#COVID
With these numbers, you would expect every 10,000 people to infect another 10,000 people (so, no growth), and in each generation of 10,000 people you would expect 100 deaths.

In 10 generations of disease spread:
100,000 people are infected, and 1,000 die

3/🧵
#COVID
Read 15 tweets
Ciara McMillan Profile picture
Oct 14, 2019
Still believe this to be true.
8 months on, and it’s clearer than ever that a “No Plan” No Deal Brexit will lead to Scotland’s division and Ireland’s union. It will be hard to keep Ireland divided when customs and regulations will be kept aligned north and south, with GB diverging....
... meanwhile the Scots will say that they have had enough of London’s lunacy, and see #indyref2 as the path back to the EU membership that they never wanted to lose. Ironically a Scotland-England border would be easier than a border in Ireland.
Read 6 tweets
Ciara McMillan Profile picture
Oct 8, 2019
To the racist liars at @ LeaveEUOfficial:
1. The World Wars were won by the Allies, in which the UK fought alongside their European and American friends, without whom we'd have lost.
2. Germany has won 4 World Cups. England has won 1, in the only final they ever reached.
Ironically, this tweet highlights the England-centric mania of Brexit. LeaveEU clearly aren't giving a thought to the Welsh, Northern Irish or Scottish nations here.
The phrase "Two World Wars and one world cup" is basically boasting about being ignorant about history, and being from a country that's shit at football.
Read 4 tweets
Ciara McMillan Profile picture
Oct 5, 2019
A #Brexit thought experiment:

Imagine we have left the EU. Our businesses no longer have to comply with EU regulations. You have a business that makes widgets. Do you:

A) Comply with all other countries’ regs but miss out a step that meets EU regs?

B) Continue to meet EU regs?
Note that since you’re already producing the widgets within the EU, you’ve already taken the steps to meet the regulations, so if you decide to stop meeting EU regs you’re cutting yourself off from your existing EU export market.
Also note that by complying with the regs of all the other countries you’re selling to, you will already be most of the way toward meeting EU regs anyway.
Read 4 tweets
Ciara McMillan Profile picture
Aug 30, 2019
Unbelievable. Thank you. @BBCr4today actually have someone on right now explaining Relative Risk vs Absolute risk. So they actually do have someone in the building who understands statistics!
This guy.

statisticsviews.com/details/news/1…
I have found that Relative Risk is one of the most confusing concepts for non-scientific folk. Plenty of really smart people just don’t understand it. We need this kind of commentary with ALL mainstream media reporting of scientific results.
Read 4 tweets

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