Government, on August 13, issued a 'Scheme to provide a one-time partial credit guarantee to PSBs for purchase of pooled assets of financially sound NBFCs'. This scheme is a step in right direction towards solving the liquidity crunch that NBFCs are faced with. Thread (1/12)
It may be recalled that the Finance Minister, in her budget speech, had made an announcement to this effect. Thid scheme attempts to address temporary asset liability mismatches of NBFCs/HFCs so that they don't have to resort to distress sale owing to paucity of liquidity. 2/12
The major features of this scheme are:
A) It is a one time guarantee provided by GoI, for a period of 24 months.
B) The schemes is only applicable to PSU banks for first loss of up to 10%
C) Guarantee can be invoked if the credit rating of the pool goes to 'D' (default). 3/12
D) The scheme would be valid for a period of six months, or till such date by which Rs 1 lakh crore assets get purchased by banks.
E) Assets originated up to March 31, 2019 will only be eligible under this scheme. 4/12
F) The pool of assets should be rated and should have a minimum rating of 'AA'.
G) NBFCs/HFCs can sell up to a maximum of 20% of their standard assets subject to a cap of Rs 5,000 crore at fair value. 5/12
H) The minimum capital adequacy should be 15% for NBFCs and 12% for HFCs and net NPA should not be more than 6% as on March 31, 2019.
I) They should have made a net profit in at least one of the last two preceding financial years. 6/12
J) For availing the window, NBFCs/HFCs will pay a fee equivalent to 0.25% of the fair value of assets, to GoI.
K) Microfinance Institutions and Core Investment Companies have been excluded from the benefits of this scheme. 7/12
My take on the impact of this scheme:
A) NBFCs that offer loans with a tenure of 2-3 years will benefit the most i.e. NBFCs offering 2-wheeler loans, Commercial/ car loans, SME loans, equipment loans, personal loans etc. , will reap maximum benefit out if the scheme. 8/12
B) Housing finance companies can take limited benefit out of the scheme as most housing loans would not fit the tenure criteria (residual maturity of less than 2 years). Loans againt property, however could fit the bill. 9/12
C) Wholesale NBFCs may not take much benefits out of the scheme as the scheme requires a 'homogeneous pool of obligors' and 'assets with no bullet repayment of both principal and interest'. 10/12
D) The biggest beneficiaries would be - Bajaj Finance, Cholamandalam, Sundaram, Shriram Transport, Shriram City Union, Magma, SREI and the likes.
E) HDFC, Piramal, PNB Housing, Edelweiss etc will get limited benefits. 11/12
Overall, it is a very good scheme for the cash thirsty NBFC/ HFC sector. It will ease of the liquidity problems considerably. Govt should be credited for a very good piece of legislation. 12/12
Most equity analysts I have interacted with till date had little understanding of debt beyond leverage ratios. As a result, they are not able to fully comprehend the risks associated with debt. Here are a few lessons for equity analysts. 1/11
1. Unviable promoter level debt would adversely impact the operating company eventually. A promoter who is financially cornered will always look for ways to squeeze money out from the operating company. Some of these desprate measures could well be unscrupulous. 2/11
2. A debt-stressed company drains out healthier companies of the group. It is rare that a promoter lets go of a company easily. He tries hard to support the weaker entity through the resources of stronger entities (via ICDs, guarantees etc.) thereby jeopardising the later. 3/11
12 things to remember while buying Life Insurance:
1. Take term plan and not an endowment plan. The insurance cover is higher for a term plan for the same premium. However, you do not get maturity benefits in term plan. Remember, you are buying Insurance and not a FD. 1/9
2. Take your plan from an insurance company that is expected to survive 20-30 years. Insurance is used over long periods and therefore it is necessary to choose a company that has a size/ networth for a long life (what an irony!). Don't look beyond LIC, SBI, ICICI and HDFC. 2/9
3. Take adequate cover - If you think Rs. 2 Cr is a good enough cover for you; wait; increase your cover to Rs. 5 Cr. Inflation levels are high in India and money loses its value very fast. Remember how valuable Rs. 1 lakh were 20 years back. 3/9
Microfinance Institutions on the brink...yet again!!
The microfinance industry in India could never really recover from the Andhra crisis of 2009-10. Just when things start to normalise, a new crisis rocks the boat. There has been no respite. Thread 1/11
From inept legislation to demonetisation, from political interference to religious diktats and from frauds to natural calamities, Microfinance Institutions (MFIs) have been battered by every risk possible. The latest in this series of pitfalls is the Corona lock-down. 2/11
Following is why I feel it's the biggest threat ever:
1) Collections have come to a grinding halt - The loan collections have largely been in cash. The lock-down has severely impaired collection efforts as the mobility of collection agents and borrowers is restricted. 3/11
Recently, Standard & Poor (S&P) warned that India's SR will be downgraded if the country's economic growth does not recover. Bond yields spiked soon after the S&P red flag. Here's why India should take the warning seriously. Thread 1/11
SRs of 3 agencies - S&P, Moody's and Fitch are considered important. Currently, India is rated BBB- (Stable) by S&P, Baa2 (Negative) by Moody's and BBB- (Stable) by Fitch. Simply put, India is barely investment grade as per S&P and Fitch and a notch better as per Moody's. 2/11
Following are the reasons why SRs are important and why India should heed S&P's warning.
1. There is a clear correlation between bond yields/ spreads and SRs i.e. a poor SR could increase the cost of borrowings of Government as well as corporates. 3/11
A letter from Sterling Wilson Solar Ltd. (SWSL) dated Nov 14, informing the exchanges about the extension of debt repayment deadline granted to promoters (Shapoorji Pallonji Company Pvt. Ltd. - SPCPL & K. Daruvala) has created widespread panic. 1/14
As at Aug 19, other companies of the promoters owed Rs. 2,563 crore to SWSL. SWSL, in Aug 19, was IPO bound and the promoters, in the red herring prospectus, promised to pay off the entire debt owed to SWSL, within 90 days, from the IPO proceeds. 2/14
The SWSL IPO was entirely an offer for sale i.e. the IPO was meant only to dilute the promoters' shareholding and no IPO proceeds went to SWSL. The IPO was under subscribed (92%) yet the promoters managed to raise ~Rs. 2,850 crore. 3/14
Insolvency & Bankruptcy Code (IBC): The story so far
IBC was enacted in Dec 2016, with the objective of ensuring speedy resolutions of NPAs. It was hailed as one of the most landmark reforms in India. This post is an attempt to understand if this code lived up to its promise.1/9
Till June, 2019, 2162 cases have been admitted. Of these, 174 have been closed on appeal or review or settled; 101 have been withdrawn; 475 have ended in liquidation and 120 received an approval of resolution plans. 1292 cases are pending. 2/9
The 120 closed cases have yielded resolution worth ~Rs. 1,08,070 crore as against total admitted claims of ~Rs. 2,52,577 crore i.e. the recovery rate was 43%. The liquidation value of these assets was merely 23% of the claims. So, IBC yielded a better than expected recovery. 3/9