Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #liquidity

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Hi #fintwit 😎 We are approaching a watershed moment in markets. Final deflationary phase of Kondratiev's winter is about to play out. Huge implications for #EUR, #Gold, #SP500, #DXY etc. I have some new interesting followers - hence something extra in this week's #HZupdates
#Kondratiev's winter is a period where #Velocity of Money drops which creates a disinflationary economic environment, where growth is subdued due to #debt levels. Since ~2000 we have been in this winter - and are still to see a range of "major economic events" unfold #HZupdates
In fact, we have never left the #Financial #Crisis. We have only been bouncing in the great "Financial and Sovereign Debt Crisis" of this #Kondratiev's winter. This can be observed from the #Deflation Gauges #Copper, #XAU, AUD, EUR. We are about to see wave C develop #HZupdates
Read 21 tweets
#GrowthSlowing #inflation
In the 12 months through January, the CPI rose 1.6 percent, the smallest gain since June 2017. The CPI increased 1.9 percent on a year-on-year basis in December.
reuters.com/article/us-usa…
#GrowthSlowing #fundflows
Money market funds recorded $21.38 billion in inflows to $3.040 trillion in the week ended Feb. 12. That was the highest level since the week of March 9, 2010, when assets totaled $3.067 trillion, according to data firm iMoneyNet.
reuters.com/article/us-fun…
Read 26 tweets
#inflation #bonds $TLT
Charts from last night Australian time. Not updated for most recent ISM number.
1/
YoY% for average gasoline prices falling with the US 10 year yield YoY% and CPI YoY% following.
#USA #growthslowing
2/
US leading economic index YoY%, GS US financial conditions, and the St. @stlouisfed financial stress index all pointing to lower real gdp numbers for the US economy.
#USA #growthslowing
3/
If we advance GS financial conditions forward by 3 months it is likely that real GDP growth and leading economic indicators continue to track lower.
Read 12 tweets
#HZupdates Let me put some narratives on my charts for a change. When Fed hikes and performs QT, it is pulling LIQUIDITY out of the system. That means tighter financial conditions. We see that by rates moving up
That would be fine IF it was not for the fact, that the economy and the "recovery" is solely based on the inflow of #liquidity. If the recovery was self-sustaining - then this rate increase would be right. Problem is - prices have been distorted beyond recognition in all markets
#HZupdates ....and valuations of #equities and all risk assets have no connect to the earth. This has been the true nature of the recovery. Driven be the "balance"-side - NOT by the "income"-side. So - now you start hiking....
Read 9 tweets
#demographics #militaries #economies #currencies
#USA
- Best demographics
- Largest military
- Largest economy
- Most used currency
- Liquid financial markets
- Open capital account
- Rule of law
- Best geography
- Can be self sufficient if required
- Not trade dependent
#USA
Top trade partners as of 30 June 2018:
- China: 15.2% (strategic competitor)
- Canada: 15.1%
- Mexico: 14.6%
- Japan: 5.1%
- Germany: 4.4%

The next 10 years could result in the below:
- Mexico (25%)
- Canada (20%
- Japan (7%)
- South Korea (5%)
- Great Britain (4%)
#USA
Bring the manufacturing (jobs) home while negatively impacting China's economy.
forbes.com/sites/kenrapoz…
cebglobal.com/talentdaily/au…
irishtimes.com/business/econo…
Read 131 tweets

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