Richard Black Profile picture
Aug 23, 2019 11 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Little thread here about #AmazonFires on something I haven't seen reported yet in media
Brazil is a federal system - states have a lot of autonomy and their governors (as I saw first-hand a while back news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/n…) a big say in what happens with forests, farming, logging and so on
Have a look at which states in the Brazilian Amazon have registered a big increase in fires and which haven't bbc.com/news/world-lat…
Then have a look at the governors of Brazilian states en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c…
Of the five Amazonian states with the highest increase in fires, four are governed by people in #Bolsonaro's current or recent political parties
Roraima and Rondônia are governed by figures from the PSL, his current party. Amazonas – PSC, which he belonged to when he started his presidential campaign. Acre – PP, to which he belonged for the 11 years before that (2005-16)
By contrast, the two states registering a decrease in fire incidence are governed by Bolsonaro's political enemies – Amapá, PDT and Maranhão, PCdoB
Bolsonaro allies – more burning. Bolsonaro opponents – less burning
Put this together with today's revelations from @OpenDemocracy opendemocracy.net/en/democraciaa… and it's hard to avoid the conclusion that the forest isn't burning due to neglect from Brazil's ruling parties but due to their intention
Interesting to see how Europe's political leaders handle this because their criticism, though entirely correct factually, feeds his populist rhetoric. And who knows how Trump will pitch in?
Well – that's it. I haven't seen the state governors point made before, so there we are

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More from @_richardblack

Dec 4, 2023
THREAD: With all the talk #cop28 centring on #fossilfuelphaseout or not – abated, unabated, etc – what actually is the logical role of CCS in the energy transition?
In a new paper for @thesmithschool @uniofoxford, Dr Andrea Bacilieri, Dr Rupert Way and I analyse the relative costs of taking a high-CCS vs a low-CCS route to #netzero and the 1.5°C temperature goal – a question that as far as we can see hasn’t been properly asked before
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Jan 9, 2023
I have deep reservations about this 'people who live near wind farms should get cheap electricity' thing, which has reached a new depth today with a recommendation that they should get free electricity
It would only make sense if people were opposed to having wind farms nearby, and there's a welter of evidence in a range of countries showing that the majority of people aren't opposed (eg sciencedirect.com/science/articl…)
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Dec 20, 2022
THREAD: Climate change causes conflict, you say? Well: it's a bit more complex than that
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And there is already a growing security crisis. Over the last 10 years (well before #Covid and Putin's war) the number of state-based armed conflicts, the number of people killed in them and the number of people displaced all roughly doubled
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Nov 19, 2022
THREAD: Sparked by Frans @TimmermansEU's remarks that #COP27 could kill off the #ParisAgreement 1.5 Celsius temperature target , a short thread on some realities of 1.5°C
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Firstly let's look at the #ParisAgreement's wording - to 'hold' warming 'well below 2°C' while 'making efforts' to keep it to 1.5°C. There is no time limit on that 'making efforts'. Governments did not pledge to make efforts until warming exceeds 1.5°C and then stop
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Nov 18, 2022
THREAD: The reluctance of some governments to contemplate having language on phasing down all fossil fuels in the #COP27 cover text unfccc.int/sites/default/… is in one sense baffling... because they've already agreed that it's needed
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Back in April the @IPCC_CH Working Group 3 report ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/ spelled out what meeting either of these targets would mean for fossil fuel use and, by implication, for extraction
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