Got asked what I’m reading? My view is different to most. I stick to 5/6 great investment books & re-read them until they sink in.

If you’re not after results, but rather knowledge, by all means read as broad as possible.

I’m after execution & results (profits) so I need focus.
Yes, and the follow up questions — which books?

Market Wizards (1st)

The New Market Wizards

Alchemy of Finance (focus on Soros trading journal only)

Methods of a Wall Street Master

...and the best one:

Reminiscences of a Stock Operator
I did said above to read them until they sink in.

Here the point, I’m still making mistakes every week, every month and clearly there is plenty to learn so I continue to re-read them.

They are more like trading manuals as opposed to books, at least for me.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Tiho Brkan

Tiho Brkan Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @TihoBrkan

Feb 19
US residential real estate:

• mortgage rates spiking; market discounting Fed's hikes; could go higher if QT

• oversupply is coming; 1.54m homes under construction (single & multi); most since 1973

• median house prices seem to have peaked already

@PPGMacro charts
We are on record saying that 2021 was probably the worst time to be overly bullish while following the crowd — buying that which was popular:

• tech & growth stocks
• residential real estate
• venture capital

We are also on record for saying that US housing shortages are a false narrative.

We saw only a temporary shortage created by artificial monetary policy.

When the cheap money punch bowl is taken away, demand will collapse and oversupply will remain.

Read 4 tweets
Feb 15
What is risky?

Few simplistic tweets: risk means different things to different investors.

A widely overused and subjective term: something can be risky to group A, but not to group B.

Perception of risk (foresight) vs realized risk (hindsight). These are not the same thing.
Institutions look at risk as volatility. We don't.

And Wall Street throws uncertainty with risk into the same bucket. Once again, we don't.

When an American, Brit, or Aussie tells us Emerging Markets are very risky, we partly agree but partly smile at the Home Country bias.
We believe when something has fallen in price due to uncertainty — but not due to quality and its fundamental prospects in the future — there is an opportunity at hand.

"We want to buy them when they're on the operating table," said Warren Buffett famously.
Read 5 tweets
Feb 12
In Feb 2021 I returned back to @MikeBoyd's podcast with the plan to discuss mezzanine finance in the RE sector.

However, before discussing moving parts of mezz debt, due diligence & monitoring process, Mike asked my opinion on the state of stocks markets?

Valuable thread. 👇
Firstly, those interested, you can listen to the podcast here: businessoffamily.net/tiho-brkan-2

There was a lot covered in hindsight, but those who follow financial markets would have probably found the first part of the podcast either very interesting or too contrarian for their liking.
Here are two key quotes from the podcast, as I was taken in awe of the speculation frenzy in the tech & growth sectors:

"While it's easy to make money today and everything seems to be working, the question for very smart investors is to anticipate what's around the corner?"
Read 18 tweets
Feb 7
Wisdom is often invisible in life and investing because we want to remove or subtract undesired outcomes.

“I have used all my life a wonderfully simple heuristic: charlatans are recognizable in that they will give you positive advice, and only positive advice.” — Nassim Taleb
I don't tweet often about wonderful ideas we will throw our hard-earned capital into because the majority of the opportunities are not wonderful.

Instead, we try to subtract actions that we are more certain are wrong or undesired, instead of adding actions we think are right.
To paraphrase Einstein, geniuses attempt to solve complicated problems, while the wise avoid them.

Let's face it: there is nothing more complicated than predicting the future in the world of investment.

Charlatans have all of the answers: what to buy & where to invest.
Read 6 tweets
Feb 1
Netflix’s -50% crash lured me to do a deep dive, which on the surface doesn’t look great. Classic valuations also too high (for me).

However, after I got past some fancy accounting, Netflix seems to have more FCF & NI than it reports (tax optimisation & reinvestment like $AMZN).
Some DM questions, so I'll add additional points. My view is:

• they are probably claiming a lot more in content expenses to reduce their tax bill than originally noticed at first glance

• cashflow statement shows "other operating activity" running at 17.3 billion
• filings show 8.9 billion was predetermined liabilities they had to spend under contract (pay actors & the sets in their own production)

• there is content spending that is needed to maintain the current business, then there is spending which drives future growth
Read 4 tweets
Jan 22
It has become quite clear that the growth stock bubble witnessed over the last 12-18 months, with an orgy of speculation has now popped and results are and might continue to be extremely painful.

$PLTR $FSLY $TDOC $PINS
$SHOP $SQ $MELI $SE
$NFLX $BABA $PYPL $ZM
Read 13 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(