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Sep 18, 2019 • 4 tweets • 4 min read
Preliminary MoF export data for Aug. are out.

Battery export from Kinki region to US is down 28% MoM. Still bit high for this year, but down 23% relative to last year's monthly ave. Typically, 90+% is Li-ion.

$TSLA $TSLAQ #Tesla #CYAZ #テスラ #モデル3
Because of the news that Toyota will be using 18650 in China, here's the same data for China. Note the Y-axis.

It doesn't look like that much of July/Aug. production went to China.


$TSLA $TSLAQ #Tesla #CYAZ #テスラ #モデル3
So my tin-foil hat theory on big jump in July Li-ion production is still alive.

Final MoF data (by battery type) to be out on 26. Prelim. METI data for Aug. on 30th.

$TSLA $TSLAQ #Tesla #CYAZ #テスラ #モデル3
For those not familiar w/ what's included in MoF/METI data & when they're released.

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More from @KawasakiKR11

Kawasaki_KR-1 Profile picture
Feb 6
Omicron not looking so "mild" in Japan.

L -> R
Alpha, Delta & Omicron waves

2 lines overlapping for Alpha = ~2% CFR
Same for Delta & Omicron = ~0.3% CFR

Note the differences in Y-axes.

Most seniors got vaccinated after the peak of Alpha wave. Others during the Delta wave.

1/ Image
Omicron wave is likely to peak next wk (likely already did in southern/western 1/3 of the country), so deaths likely to peak in late Feb. Looking like it'll be the deadliest wave so far.

2/ Image
Roughly,

Spring '20: 1k
Summer/Autumn '20: 1k
Winter '20-'21: 7.5k
Spring '21 (Alpha): 7.5k
Summer '21 (Delta): 3k
Winter '22 (Omicron): ~800 so far.

Per case severity is clearly lower relative to pre-vaxx peaks, but high transmissibility makes that less relevant.

3/
Read 11 tweets
Kawasaki_KR-1 Profile picture
Oct 3, 2020
A former Sanyo/Pana battery engineer, who was on the team that developed 18650 for Tesla, was interviewed by a Tesla fanboy/BEVangelist about the Battery Day.

TL;DR: Nothing ground-breaking. All are minor improvements IF they can work them out.

$TSLAQ
I might get around to summarizing the key points later. Meanwhile, here's the link. The guy is a Tesla owner & a bit of a fanboy himself, but I find his engineer's perspective interesting. Quite different from what lab scientists have said.

$TSLAQ

blog.evsmart.net/tesla/battery-…
Before I get started, the summary by the interviewer says a lot. He likens what Tesla is trying to do to their attempt at "kaizen". Nothing radical.

Here we go.

1. cylindrical: A surprise. No advantage over others. Maybe being tabless will help w/ cooling.
$TSLAQ
Read 8 tweets
Kawasaki_KR-1 Profile picture
Sep 29, 2020
My take on key drivers of batt. cost reduction (outside China).

Roughly,

2012~2015: declining JPY/USD.

2012~2017: Pana (18650) & AESC (Leaf) scaling .

2017~18: Pana (GF1/2170) scaling.

2018~: others scaling.

1/x
Volume-weighted ave. may still be dropping, but Tesla itself probably hasn't seem much cost reduction recently, while others are catching up.

Up-to-date METI data (i.e. 18650) here. (note: they include more expensive hybrid cells as well.)
2/x
 ImageImage
Personally, I find auto vs. non-auto Li-ion cell cost comparison interesting. You could say that the huge decline in (auto) battery cost early was just auto catching up w/ non-auto (despite hyping by BNEF, etc.)
3/x
 Image
Read 7 tweets
Kawasaki_KR-1 Profile picture
Sep 26, 2020
This week's installment of Japanese Tesla listings/sales. #Tesla #CYAZ #テスラ #モデル3

TL;DR: EoQ rush seems muted. Backlog cleared.
S/X/3 summary.

Little going on w/ inventory S/X. I suspect most S/X delivery of this Q happened in Aug. S/3 3rd party listings continue to increase. Most used sales are at the low end of price ranges. Image
Here are what we know wrt Q3.

1. No shipment of 3 since Nov., so backlog is 3 Qs worth.
2. Some S/X backlog, but that's prob. ~100.
3. Those who ordered in July have taken deliveries.

Here are the reported orders by mo & wk. Early on, sampling rate was ~20%. ImageImage
Read 6 tweets
Kawasaki_KR-1 Profile picture
Sep 26, 2020
Where we are.

Whatever we're doing isn't working.

ImageImage
Forget plug-ins. Can we have good ol' hybrids first?

Image
Good luck to CA (~2 mil cars sold per yr).

Image
Read 4 tweets
Kawasaki_KR-1 Profile picture
Sep 22, 2020
Q. Why is "million mile" battery important?

A. Because batteries don't last as long as the rest of the car.

So, how long do cars last nowadays?

1/x
We've all heard/read about ave. age of cars on the road.

Here are some stats. Latest on US is ~12 yrs old.

Note that used cars are often exported from wealthier countries to less wealthier ones. In case of Japan, almost 1/2 are exported, lowering ave. age of cars.

2/x Image
But that's like median age of population. How about % of old cars?

(I don't have newer data for US, hence data from 2013. It's likely ~50% now).

3/x Image
Read 16 tweets

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