Ketan ACMA🇮🇳 Profile picture
Sep 18, 2019 10 tweets 15 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
- Pharma MNCs riding on innovation & operating in niche therapies (less competition), focus on few brand & enjoy premium pricing, 100% focus on India market.
- Indian cos; struggle with regulatory hurdles (US FDA), 70% revenue from overseas biz, currency & geopolitical risks. Image
Indian pharma companies are facing a lot of compliance issues. If current situation continues, they might not get approval of pending products which ultimately impact on topline of these companies

@caniravkaria @_N_U_P_K_Y
Pfizer Q2 sales 567crs vs 519 crs, net profits up 60% at 154 crs vs 96

As mentioned, Pharma MNCs are exceedingly doing well compared to Indian pharma players!!

@caniravkaria @_N_U_P_K_Y MNC Pharma - Promising compounding story
𝗔𝗯𝗯𝗼𝘁𝘁-FY19 Cash Balance INR 16.8 Bn
👉Duphaston - Gynaecology
👉Thyronorm - Thyroid
👉Udiliv - Liver disorder
𝗚𝗦𝗞 𝗣𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗺𝗮-FY19 Cash Balance INR 11.7 Bn
👉Augmentin - Anti-infective
👉Synflorix - Vaccines
👉Calpol - Pain
@caniravkaria @_N_U_P_K_Y 𝗦𝗮𝗻𝗼𝗳𝗶-FY19 Cash Balance INR 13.5 Bn
👉Lantus - Diabetes
👉Allegra - Allergy
👉Amaryl - Diabetes
𝗣𝗳𝗶𝘇𝗲𝗿-FY19 Cash Balance INR 19.1 Bn
👉Prevenar - Vaccines
👉Becosules - Vitamins
👉Gelusil MPS - Antacid

#PharmaMNC #MultiBagger #USFDA #regulator #IndianPharma
@caniravkaria @_N_U_P_K_Y 𝗣&𝗚 𝗛𝗲𝗮𝗹𝘁𝗵-FY19 Cash Balance INR 12.4 Bn
👉Neurobion - Vitamins
👉Evion - Vitamins
👉Livogen - Vitamins

Indian Pharmaceuticals market valued at ~$20 Bn
MNC Pharma remain focused on doemstic mkt & growing @10% outpacing their Indian peers

@preeti112019 @Vivek_Investor
@caniravkaria @_N_U_P_K_Y @10 @preeti112019 @Vivek_Investor 👉IPM is 12th largest & fastest growing mkt in the world
👉MNCs command 20% mkt share in IPM
👉Enjoying dominant position (ranked no.1 in their respective therapies)
👉MNCs share increased from 12% to 20% in last 10 years
👉Access to their parent portfolio of patented drugs
@caniravkaria @_N_U_P_K_Y @10 @preeti112019 @Vivek_Investor 👉Recent corporate tax rate reduction to 22% would benefit significantly.
👉Strong brand equity with doctors
👉Strong cash flows annually, huge cash surplus

#Abbott #Sanofi #Pfizer
#equity #stockstowatch #Growth #Pharmaceutical
@caniravkaria @_N_U_P_K_Y @10 @preeti112019 @Vivek_Investor ✍️ NPPA hiked the ceiling prices for 21 drugs
✍️ Drug shortage & Steep increase in RM cost main factors
✍️ Many API units had to shut down in China due to pollution drive leading to sharp demand supply imbalance
✍️ MC players with presence of APIs & Formulation key beneficieries
@caniravkaria @_N_U_P_K_Y @10 @preeti112019 @Vivek_Investor ✍️ Ceiling prices increased for following drugs
✍️ Most drugs & APIs that saw price hike have a heavy MNC pharma presence
✍️ In Domestic industry, #JBchemical #Ipcalab #Cipla to gain traction

#Abbott #Sanofi #Pfizer #Merck #Pfizer

@caniravkaria Image

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More from @ketanmba03

Nov 29, 2020
The Journey of Vini Costmetics
✍️1985: Darshan Patel joins his father's co Paras Pharmaceuticals
✍️1994: Launched Krack which was an overnight success
✍️1996-2000: Launched a range of products(D-Cold, Borosoft,Ring Guard,Itch Guard)
✍️2002: Launched Livon-IND's 1st hair detangler
✍️2005: Set Wet hairstyling gel is launched and later a deodrant under the same brand name
✍️2006: Patel exits Paras. He sold his 24% stake to Actis Capital for $43 Mn
✍️2007: Registered Vini Costmetics and spend the next couple of years doing consumer research
✍️2010: Vini Costmetics was launched; started selling pharma products; WhiteTone was launched; Paras Pharmaceuticasl was acquired by Reckitt Benckiser Group for INR 3260 Crs
✍️2011: Launched Fogg deodorants; Bay Capital came on board, investing 30 Crs
Read 5 tweets
Nov 28, 2020
Aurobindo CMP 868
The company is developing:
✍️14 Biosimilars (5 of these expected to launch by FY25 with a US$20 market size)
✍️8 inhalers (US market size is >$10 Bn)
✍️Pneumcoccal Conjugate Vaccine (US$6.2 bn global market size)
✍️3 depot injectables (US$3.3 bn market size)
Co also developing 50 Other Complex generics
✍️Peptides (US$14.5 Bn Mkt size-Global $2.5 bn size for 5 filed ANDAs and Global $12bn for 10 under development)
✍️Topicals (US$4 Bn Mkt size-26 products under development currently out of total 37 products identified for development)
✍️Transdermal patches (US$3 Bn Global Mkt size) : 8 products under development (Clinical trials to begin for the 1st product in FY21)
✍️Nasals (US$1.3 Bn Mkt size) : 1 approved + 4 under development (Filing will be done over the course of next 3 yrs)
Read 14 tweets
Nov 23, 2020
✍️IND's Renewable Energy sector is world's 4th most attractive RE Mkt
✍️Globally, Cost to generate Solar & Wind Energy dropped by 90% & 70% in past 10 yrs
✍️Costs almost at par with NG
✍️RE is estimated to comprise ~60% of IND’s installed power capacity by 2030 (~24% at present)
✍️Global Investments in RE: $282 Bn in 2019
✍️45% cming frm China, who aims to get 62% energy via RE in nxt 3 yrs
✍️By 2040, IND aims to generate ~49% of total Electricity frm RE
✍️FDI inflow in the Indian non-conventional “energy sector” stood at $9.22B in last 10 years
✍️More than $42B has been invested in IND’s “RE” sector since 2014
✍️Estimated to attract investment ~$80B in nxt 4 yrs
✍️The past 9 months have slowed the Solar Energy installations by 80% v/s 2019 due to Covid
✍️2020-Cumulative solar capacity is ~37 GW
✍️2022-Tgt is 100 GW
Read 7 tweets
Sep 26, 2020
Valiant Organics CMP 2795
✍️A Specialty Chemical Manufacturing Company.
✍️The products of the company find several applications mainly in the agro-chemical, pharmaceuticals, rubber, dyes, pigment & in the making of veterinary drugs
✍️Fully integrated manufacturing facilities
✍️Revenue: Domestic 85% & Export 15%
(Agro 40%,Specialty 30%,Dyes+Pigments 20%,API 10%)
✍️Rev. share from API is likely to increase in coming yrs
✍️One of the most competitive producers of Chlorination, Ammonolysis,Acylation,Hydrogenation & Methoxylation based specialty products
✍️Inorganic growth & organic capital expansion without much increase in Debt Equity
✍️Leveraging a de-risked biz model
✍️The synergistic acquisition of Amarjyot chemical ltd last year
✍️Ability to forward integrate by adding high-margin & high value products to maximise growth
Read 9 tweets
Apr 26, 2020
IndusInd Bank CMP 380
✍ Stock fell frm 2038 high to 235
✍ Decreasing deposits
✍ Rising bad loans
✍ High exposure to telecom companies & NBFCs
✍ Exit of a long-time CEO
✍ Crisis at #yesbank has put question mark on rest of the private lenders
✍ Stock corrected 68% in March
Journey from 2035 to 235
✍ Dec 2017 - RBI imposes INR 3 Crs penalty for under-reporting of FY16 NPAs

✍ Apr 2018 - Reports divergence in FY17 NPAs of INR 1350 Crs frm RBI's estimates

✍ Sep 2018 - Discloses exposure of INR 3000 Crs to IL&FS, a crisis-ridden NBFC
✍ July 2019 - Completes merger with Bharat Financial Inclusion

✍ Jan 2020 - Posts disappointing Q3, provisions up by 72%, gross NPAs more than double YoY, asset quality worsens, Mr Sobti set to retire in Mar'20

✍ Feb 2020 - Moody's downgrades Outlook to Negative from Stable
Read 5 tweets
Apr 25, 2020
The API Industry
✍️ The backbone of India pharma industry is the bulk drug industry
✍️ India has highest no. of US FDA approved plants (665) outside of the US
✍️ India has 44% of global abbreviated new drug applications (ANDA)
✍️ India needs to proactively boost the API Industry
✍️ The Indian pharma industry is the world's 3rd largest in terms of vol
✍️ India's API industry is ranked the 3rd largest in the world
✍️ India fulfils 20% of global demand for generic medicines in terms of Vol & supplies over 60% of global demand of various vaccines & ARV drugs
✍️ Indian bulk drug industry has grown at CAGR of 8.6% over 2016-2020. It is further expeacted to grow at similar CAGR during 2020-2024
✍️ The import of APIs has risen at a CAGR of 8.3% from 2012-2019
✍️ Bulk drug import reached a value of INR ~249 billion in 2019

Read 15 tweets

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