Mind the GAP – a few thoughts on the primary deficit!
SA government spending will exceed revenue by R375 billion next year! Of that R143 billion is the primary deficit (i.e. excludes paying back interest on debt).
Just to close the primary deficit of R143 billion from Vat alone1
would mean VAT increasing from 15% to 22%
Closing the primary deficit with personal income tax alone would increase PIT by 20%! So excluding bracket creep the 18% rate would increase to 21,6% and the 41% rate to 49% and the 45% rate to 54,5%! 2
Closing the R143 hole with the fuel tax alone would mean increasing the fuel tax from R3,52 to R10,57c taking the current Gauteng price from R16,21 to R23,26!
Or the Government can just close the police services and courts saves about the same money. 3
BTW stop all funding to university & colleges will not be enough to close the GAP! We could also cut social grant by two thirds just to close the primary deficit.
To balance the budget in full; Government would have to eliminate ALL health spending and raise VAT to 22%! 4
Or just not spend on ANY education at all that should just about do it!
This ain’t no party this ain’t mucking about; this the damage by corruption & inability.
BTW the extra bailouts this year total R36 billion so far that’s close to a 2% increase in the VAT rate. Just saying 5
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The typical PAYE income taxpayer in SA, gross salary is R21k per month. At today's exchange rate the person working at minimum wages at Mcdonald's in the USA would earn this income in just two-thirds of a month. Just 3,5 million South Africans earn more than this amount. 1/7
The typical income tax payer in SA has a marginal 26% tax rate. In many other countries, this would be far less. In Florida, you would pay a marginal rate of less than 17% ($1350) (including health insurance and social security) &receive food stamps, housing allowance etc 2/7
In fact, the income taxpayer in Florida would be able to get as much back from the state as the tax paid or even more. But in SA, the typical income taxpayer gets nothing back & likely has to pay school fees, etc. The personal income tax burden in SA is the 10th highest 3/7
SA is missing about 2 million tons of coal exports a month due to problems and theft at and from Transnet. The loss over the last 3 months at 2 million tonnes is R2,4 billion for the country. SA should be exporting 8 not 3,5 million so the potential loss is R5,4 billion. 1/2
The theft of cables has actual losses for the country. The looting and threats are real. R5,4 billion every month lost for, say, a year is R65 billion. The damage is huge, but no one is jailed, so more theft happens. Coal exports are lower today than in 1994 2
Starving people, job losses continue but still, corruption and theft are not punished. It becomes a one-way bet just steal the cable or set fire to the equipment. When the law is not implemented or selectively implemented it is the honest folk and the poor who suffer. 3
South Africa's default answer to underlying problems like unemployment, poverty and inequality has been for government to spend more. Sounds good hey? Well in this time unemployment has increase, poverty has increased and inequality is higher than at the end of Apartheid. Why?
Money is never going to be enough if so few work and can pay taxes for the many on grants. Also, the government believes that government can fix everything but does not work hard itself. when you have the 7th high company tax burden to GDP in the world, you chase jobs away
SA also already has the 10th highest personal income tax burden in the world. Then we also have every higher wealth taxes and the threat of taking property away. No one in their right mind is investing here without government guarantees which they cannot provide outside the few.
Between 2019 and 2020 SA relative GDP per capita when compared to the world average dropped by the biggest margin since 1994. South Africans now have just under 71% of the income that average person living in the world updated data show.
Yes, this is a train smash. South Africans are now firmly in the poor half as the GDP per capita ranking is now 107th out of 191 available with recent data. We are firmly on the way to the bottom third. Just another sad story....
Even if we grow again it will take decades to get back to the world average. World average per capita income grew by 68% since 1990 and SA did increase by 11%. Emerging markets grew far quicker.
Did some research for you. 100 000 tons of mined gold in 1966 did not exist! The amount in dollars is near 2000 times SA GDP so if it did get and was spent SA GDP would have increased 200000%! It is more money than the 500 richest people on earth combined! 1
As of 2019, there was 197 000 tons of gold. 34 000 tons are in central bank vaults and 43 000 in verifiable investment holdings. 93 000 tons in Jewellery, So the gold even if deposited now would have been noticeable. All the world's jewellery cannot make up the 100 000 deposit. 2
$600 trillion in the SA banking system would be more than the total value of SA banks - in fact, the whole stock exchange. It would have been far more than the World economy the total amount in the world banking system or the total value of all the worlds stock markets 3
Expected future Headlines.
The city wishes to thank all the drug lords for donating money to unemployed waiters, Uber drivers, chefs.
In an unexpected gesture, all three major drug cartels donated part of their proceeds to hungry unemployed hotel, restaurant and travel staff. 1
One drug lord even stated they expected nothing but goodwill back from these donations.
Police, however, are not convinced that this is a purely humanitarian gesture as they expect tourism and leisure staff to help drug dealers avoid law enforcement. 2
However, the Mayor said any help to starving tourism & leisure staff is welcomed as the state had no money to pay business or staff and so drug money is the only money available. (Now referred to as home-made pharmaceuticals) 3