Societal shifts are happening & will be long-lasting. Younger generations are clearly frustrated & crypto adoption gateways are rising.
Older generation has lost touch with younger generation, and for the first time, the younger generation has a loud microphone (social media) and a solution (#Bitcoin and other digital assets).
This is the information world - no longer will people accept what doesn’t make sense.
Used a ton of info from others this week to frame our argument. Shout outs to:
Been tweeting / replying a lot today about the FTX court approved sale of crypto assets, so if you missed key points, here's a summary with a few updates:
1) Galaxy Asset Mgmt, not their trading desk, won the bid. They must act as a fiduciary & sell gradually & opportunistically
2) Galaxy is receiving massive amounts of reverse inquiry already (some from real funds, some fishing expeditions). But OTC sales will dominate the buying. Less likely to see a lot of selling on exchange or via TWAPs. As good bids come in, they will engage.
3) The $100mm max per week is really not relevant. They can ask for court approval if they get a bigger block bid, and they don't have to sell anything in any given week. The $100mm was just a guideline to prevent dumping and destroying value for the estate.
Mostly irrelevant since no one operates in the US anymore and a bunch of non-criminal charges for past wrongdoings don’t really matter.
I see 2 actual negatives from this: ⬇️
1) SEC explicitly defining certain tokens randomly as securities could lead to delistings on Kraken & coinbase or any other US exchange
2) negative sentiment effect if CZ is out and people loved him
That’s about all I see. Pretty benign otherwise.
From a market standpoint... how many times can you rally on the same news over and over again (2020 - corporates buying BTC) or sell off on the same news (2023 - SEC hates crypto)
2) Over the past 6 months we observed other $DYDX stakeholders highlight these same issues on DYDX’s public channels. We expect significant improvements to the value & sustainability if the tokenomics are fixed, especially as users move from CeFi to DeFi derivatives post-FTX
3) Arca has engaged the @dydxfoundation , DYDX Trading & major stakeholders to address some of these issues but have been met with resistance and apathy.
With product delays ahead of a major bear market unlock, it is time to make this discussion public.
Last week, Genesis filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection bringing restructuring negotiations to the public. While we cannot predict how negotiations will end, we pored through filings to synthesize lessons learned and where we might be headed.
Here are 4 key conclusions:
#1: The Genesis bankruptcy represents the end of the forced selling of assets—especially the Grayscale trusts. Gemeni liquidated about 5% of GBTC shares in November that was being used as collateral from Gemeni causing an artificial widening of spreads of GBTC to record levels.
#2: DeFi again proves to be superior to CeFi for risk management. We’ve written about this theme several times and now the Genesis bankruptcy is a prime example of the relative failure of CeFi.
The SBF saga / theatre at this point has no bearing on the market.
Here are 10 much more relevant digital assets stories to follow: 👇
1) Audits
Have you ever gone thru a crypto audit? The auditors are still learning themselves. It's one thing to prove you have assets in the wallet; it's quite another LONG ordeal to prove you have access to all of them.
1b) And auditors do not like to take risks (see the fallout of Arthur Anderson after Enron).
So if your base case is that "no audit = bad actor"... you may want to consider that "no audit may = auditors are scared of being wrong"
FOMC meeting --- yawn. Here's how it should have gone:
Q1: How did all 12 Fed governors vote unanimously for 75 bps when there are hundreds of possible permutations that affect trillions of dollars?
A1: Group think - we let markets decide for us then we appease them
Q2: How will you get inflation down to 2% when you have missed every inflation target the Fed has ever set? Literally everyone one. You've never successfully caused inflation when you wanted it nor brought it down when needed?
A2: We have no clue what we're doing when it comes to inflation. But we DO know that we can make stocks go higher when we need to by spending a ton of money. That always works.
So hang tight, keep gambling & shorting, but if we screw up, which we will, we'll save you again.