"Disney is trading at 23 times expected earnings, its highest forward earnings valuation since 2004"

"Multiples are not valuation; they are shorthand for the process of valuation. The value of a financial asset is the present value of future cash flows." research-doc.credit-suisse.com/docView?langua…
"In assessing capital allocation, consider incremental returns on capital first and growth second. Growth only creates value if the investments generate a return in excess of the cost of capital. Note that this return need not be immediate." Micael Mauboussin
"Past multiples are only relevant to the degree to which the underlying drivers of value are consistent through time. In fact, many of these drivers have changed, greatly diminishing the utility of past averages."
"A naive use of EV/EBITDA leads to valuation mistakes. The warranted multiple is predominantly a function of value creation, growth, and risk." Michael Mauboussin bluemountaincapital.com/wp-content/upl…
"The goal of a good DCF model is to avoid accounting vagaries and to zero in on the cash flow. Earnings fail to do this, and managements have a great deal of discretion in determining the earnings they report. As Alfred Rappaport said: 'cash is a fact, profit is an opinion.'" MM

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More from @trengriffin

Feb 20
1/ Being on a board of directors with @wolfejosh has been an amazingly enjoyable and educational experience. He's always prepared, informed, contributes and has fun.

Josh believes: "edge can derive from informational, analytical or behavioral sources." 25iq.com/2018/07/07/les…
2/ If you work on a team that runs a business you can acquire an edge versus people who only invest and don't have your source of edge.

"To make money, you must find something that nobody else knows, or do something that others won’t do."

Peter Lynch 25iq.com/2013/07/28/a-d…
3/ One of my sources of edge is the ability to value certain businesses by using DCF analysis. That's what anyone running a business learns to do. If you do this for decades you get better at it.

Is it easy? No. Can I do every company? No. Do I have an edge in doing it? Yes.
Read 6 tweets
Feb 19
1/ Charlie Munger: "We invested money in China. I feel about Russia the way Gundlach feels about China. I don’t invest in Russia so I can’t criticize Gundlach’s point of view. I reached a different conclusion. If he’s nervous, he doesn’t have to join us." junto.investments/daily-journal-…
2/ "On balance, we prefer the risks we have to those we’re avoiding and we don’t mind a tiny little bit of margin debt. When you buy Alibaba, you do get sort of a derivative. But assuming there’s a reasonable honor among civilized nations, that risk doesn’t seem that big to me."
3/ Charlie Munger: "We’ve gotten an absence of world wars for a long time because we had these nuclear weapons. But it does make you nervous every once in a while and it’s quite irresponsible when the leaders in the modern age get tensions over border incidents and so forth."
Read 50 tweets
Feb 3
1/ Informing a reader by telling stories is the approach taken in this new book on venture capital. It's is easier to convey an idea like:

"Venture capital is not even a home-run business. It's a grand-slam business." Bill Gurley

if you tell a story. amazon.com/Power-Law-Vent…
2/ Free book excerpt at: penguinrandomhouse.com/books/580120/t…

"Most people think improbable ideas are unimportant, but the only thing that's important is something that's improbable."

Don't pitch an incremental category that is: "one sheet of toilet paper, not two." penguinrandomhouse.com/books/580120/t…
3/ A recent example of how stories work as a teaching tool is Morgan Housel's book The Psychology of Money. The huge sales of Morgan's book are an example of a power law at work. He wrote a grand slam. If you want more readers or viewers, tell more stories.infiniteloops.libsyn.com/tren-griffin-w…
Read 4 tweets
Feb 2
"Starlink Premium users can expect download speeds of 150-500 Mbps and latency of 20-40ms, enabling high throughput connectivity for small offices, storefronts, and super users across the globe" starlink.com/premium
This is a new Starlink service apparently aimed at non-residential customers.
Mobile capacity management is harder.

"The first premium deliveries will begin second quarter. Unlike the standard product, which only guarantees service at a specific service address, SpaceX says Starlink Premium is capable of connecting from anywhere." cnbc.com/amp/2022/02/02…
Read 4 tweets
Jan 31
Do food delivery companies that spend this much on customer acquisition have issues around product/market fit? Or are they trying to acquire scale economies and benefit from a positive feedback loop?

Subsidized goods or services aren't COGS, but instead are in-kind CAC.
Andy Rachleff: “You know you have product/market fit if your product grows exponentially with no marketing. That is only possible if you have huge word of mouth. Word of mouth is only possible if you have delighted your customer.”
Until a delivery business establishes superior liquidity, it is vulnerable. Part of liquidity is more delivery people available which is a function of more transaction volume. Density of transactions can generate positive feedback. You're at the mercy of your stupidest competitor
Read 4 tweets
Jan 31
1/ Brian Arthur: "Complexity economics sees the economy as not necessarily in equilibrium, its decision makers (or agents) as not super-rational, the problems they face as not necessarily well-defined and the economy not as a perfectly humming machine."
nature.com/articles/s4225…
2/ "Complexity economics assumes that agents differ and that they have imperfect information about other agents. The resulting outcome may not be in equilibrium and may display patterns and emergent phenomena not visible to equilibrium analysis." nature.com/articles/s4225…
3/ "Because assumptions are a widening of the neoclassical ones, complexity economics is neither a special case of equilibrium economics nor an addition to it. Complexity economics sees the economy not as mechanistic, static, timeless and perfect but as organically."
Read 4 tweets

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