Thread by @cgherasimov

#Moldova’s pro-reformist @sandumaiamd gov collapsed last week. A new phase of political instability. How it happened, what comes next for #Moldova & impact on #EasternPartnership in this thread 1/7

@dgapev @GERonOstpolitik @D_Schwarzer @MilanN_inBerlin @CHRussiaEurasia

No-confidence vote against #Sandu gov passed by coalition partners Socialists #PSRM + highly corrupt ex-#Plahotniuc's Democrats #PD. This new covert PSRM-PD coalition in the making since summer but had no justification until last week 2/7

Trigger came in early Nov when #Sandu clashed w President #Dodon over selection process of Prosecutor General. Costs of having an independent ProsGen too high for old elites (#Dodon, #PSRM, #PD) 3/7

Internal party dynamics played into new power struggle:
✔Lack of #ACUM consensus how to deal w #Dodon's covert sabotage of reforms
✔@AndreiNastaseDA zero relation w #Dodon + lost #Chisinau local elections (3 Nov)
✔Fracture in #PD: join #Dodon vs stay in opposition 4/7

Just 2 days after the fall of #Sandu gov, new ‘technocratic’ gov sworn in. Formed of advisers to President #Dodon + bureaucrats from previous corrupt #Filip gov. PM #Chicu =fmr FinanceMin during #Plahotniuc era 5/7

What could #EU expect:
✔ Moldova quickly transitions to a new #Dodon era
✔ The new gov steered from the President’s office
✔ Short-term situational coalitions btw different political forces
✔ Snap elections at latest in autumn 2020 6/7

#EasternPartnership leading trio of associated countries (#Georgia, #Moldova, #Ukraine) now missing one pillar = weaker case for #EU deciding on a differentiated approach ahead of June 2020 #EaP summit 7/7.