Richard Black Profile picture
Dec 14, 2019 10 tweets 4 min read Read on X
In Madrid at #COP25, but not staying up to the bitter end - largely because the bitter end comes - when? Nobody knows. So - a few thoughts before retiring
It ain't over 'til it's over. This reminds me of COP17 in Durban, which ran loooong into Sunday. And looked like a total shitshow until very near the end - but then produced a watershed moment, the deal that led to the #ParisAgreement. Anything similar looks unlikely here, but...
If it does end in some kind of shitshow, don't blame the process. That's what people do from a distance who've never really thought about it. Any UN process is run by governments - so if it doesn't make progress, look for those governments that don't want to, and blame them
For all its faults, if the @UNFCCC didn't exist you'd have to invent it. Because there has to be a forum where every government gets to represent its people on climate change
Which governments, then, to blame this time? Some are fairly obvious: Brazil and Australia (markets), Saudi Arabia and US (everything). Others may be hiding behind their coat-tails. Chile as COP President has not played a blinder
Equally obviously, not all of those are developed nations. The old trope about developing nations being saints and developed ones sinners has had its day. We're having a much more honest debate these days - broadly speaking, nations with big fossil fuel interests vs the rest
If #COP25 does collapse because of non-agreement on #Article6, well... good news is that the world doesn't need carbon markets in order to decarbonise. In principle markets make it easier and cheaper - but they're not necessary
One thing not to forget in the madness and tiredness: This week, the European Union, the world's third biggest emitter, vowed to move to #netzero emissions by 2050. Lots of details awaited but - that's not insignificant
On which point - contrary to much on Twitter, this was never supposed to be the summit where governments committed to faster emission cuts. That is supposed to be next year (if you're in doubt, see eciu.net/briefings/inte…)
One inescapable takeaway from this summit is that a lot of stuff is about to land in the UK government's lap. And it's going to need top-notch diplomacy from @Cop26President, @IanDuncanHMG and other ministers to make #ClimateSummitUK a success - especially after this

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More from @_richardblack

Jul 2
THREAD: Seen a bit of chat recently implying that the UK shouldn't put pedal to the metal on decarbonisation as it's so far gone faster than US - which is true, it has
The implication is that somehow this speed has been bad for the UK economy. The data say otherwise
Since 1990, UK GDP has increased 3.45-fold, according to the World Bank. The US, 3.42-fold. Basically, identical data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.G…
Read 7 tweets
Dec 4, 2023
THREAD: With all the talk #cop28 centring on #fossilfuelphaseout or not – abated, unabated, etc – what actually is the logical role of CCS in the energy transition?
In a new paper for @thesmithschool @uniofoxford, Dr Andrea Bacilieri, Dr Rupert Way and I analyse the relative costs of taking a high-CCS vs a low-CCS route to #netzero and the 1.5°C temperature goal – a question that as far as we can see hasn’t been properly asked before
And the difference?
Read 16 tweets
Apr 28, 2023
Hilarious to see @NetZeroWatch plugging this 'dangers of woke banking' line... here's their chairman's own company's sustainability page 😂😂😂 recordfg.com/sustainability/ Image
There's lots more... Image
Image
Read 7 tweets
Jan 9, 2023
I have deep reservations about this 'people who live near wind farms should get cheap electricity' thing, which has reached a new depth today with a recommendation that they should get free electricity
It would only make sense if people were opposed to having wind farms nearby, and there's a welter of evidence in a range of countries showing that the majority of people aren't opposed (eg sciencedirect.com/science/articl…)
Read 9 tweets
Dec 20, 2022
THREAD: Climate change causes conflict, you say? Well: it's a bit more complex than that
Climate change and other facets of the global environmental crisis raise the risks of conflict and other forms of insecurity. But so do many other things - competition for resources, ethnic tensions, prior conflicts, pandemics...
And there is already a growing security crisis. Over the last 10 years (well before #Covid and Putin's war) the number of state-based armed conflicts, the number of people killed in them and the number of people displaced all roughly doubled
Read 12 tweets
Nov 19, 2022
THREAD: Sparked by Frans @TimmermansEU's remarks that #COP27 could kill off the #ParisAgreement 1.5 Celsius temperature target , a short thread on some realities of 1.5°C
This is also a nod to all those lining up to pontificate that '1.5°C is dead', particularly scientists who make no attempt to clarify that that what they're saying is just their opinion, not fact
Firstly let's look at the #ParisAgreement's wording - to 'hold' warming 'well below 2°C' while 'making efforts' to keep it to 1.5°C. There is no time limit on that 'making efforts'. Governments did not pledge to make efforts until warming exceeds 1.5°C and then stop
Read 18 tweets

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