Thread by @Peters_Glen

Is Australia on track to meet its emission pledges?

Overview: Without Land Use, Land-Use Change, Forestry (LULUCF), Australian GHG emissions are clearly rising...

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In addition to friendly LULUCF rules, Australia has relative soft targets:
* Kyoto 1: 1900 to 2008/2012, pledged 8% increase
* Kyoto 2: 1990 to 2013/2020, pledged 0.5% reduction

Australia can only achieve the 2020 target, by relying on over achievement of the 2012 target!

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Australia is expected to exceed its 2030 target (NDC, Paris pledge) by more than 15% without additional policies, according to scientific studies.

From @UNEP #EmissionsGap report

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Targets are rather complex, & shifting methods & base years makes hard to track.

Because of the high LULUCF emissions in 1990, Australia will look like it is making reductions, but emissions without LULUCF may still rise by 2030 relative to 1990.

climateactiontracker.org/countries/aust…

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But maybe Australia's struggles with fire may make LULUCF less beneficial in the future. This will ultimately depend on the obscurities of land-use accounting, what the government defines as managed & unmanaged land, how it does accounting, etc.

smh.com.au/politics/feder…

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But, put aside all the pledges and accounting tricks. An even bigger issue is that Australia's pledges are widely acknowledged to be insufficient...

climateactiontracker.org/countries/aust…

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The Australian government will continue to tell people it is "on track", doing its bit, making a fair contribution, etc.

The data, as it happens, tells a completely different story...

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