This year’s conference certainly *looked* different: No hotel-room interviews! Office hours with the ombudsperson! Even lines for the ladies room.
Whether that translates into deeper, more lasting change remains to be seen.
And on one level, this has been the easy part. It’s one thing to pass a code of conduct; it’s another to enforce it. It’s one thing to agree diversity matters; it’s another to hold departments accountable for their progress.
Some bits of news on that front, from our interview with Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen:
- One formal complaint has been filed, and will be taken up by the AEA Executive Committee as soon as it finalizes procedures for doing so (which should be very soon);
- Bernanke, unprompted, raises the possibility of grading departments on their diversity efforts. Although he said for the time being they will focus on encouraging transparency and spreading best practices.
- Bernanke also, in response to a question from @jimtankersley, expressed some openness to the idea of quotas to ensure diversity of editors at top journals.
Some other observations from #ASSA2020: There was a clear sense of progress, including from activists and other who have pushed for faster change. Quite a lot of people giving credit to Bernanke (and Yellen) for pushing the very slow-moving AEA to do more, faster.
At the same time, I heard lots of concern about backsliding. Lots of stories from long-time activists about previous eras when it seemed like things were changing, only to see progress stall.
Discussions of race and racism were much more prominent this year after being decidedly secondary to gender last year.
Lots of historical perspective tied to #NEAat50 (and some frustration that AEA leadership isn’t acknowledging/drawing on that experience).
I also heard a lot of talk (esp. from younger economists) about elitism and how the focus on top departments/journals affects econ in its culture, diversity and research.
That conversation does not seem to have permeated the leadership the way the race/gender convo has.
And as always, thank you to the many, many people who talked to us on and off the record about the state of the profession, it’s problems and the path forward.
Have more to say? My DMs are open; anonymity guaranteed.
Another thing to mention was the focus on solutions at this year’s conference, as opposed to just highlighting problems. There was a well-attended session on “best practices” with practical steps for improving teaching, mentorship, recruiting, etc. Came up in other sessions too.
As Janet Yellen said to kick off Friday’s session on solving econ’s race problem: “Let me emphasize that our focus is not on *whether* there is a race problem in economics. That’s been abundantly documented.”
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The U.S. economy slowed in the final three months of the year, but only because the Q3 number was so strong -- the 3.3% growth rate in Q4 was well above expectations and certainly offered no hints of a brewing recession. (Belated charts thread)
This is not a case where the volatile components of G.D.P. made a weak quarter look strong, as sometimes happens. Measures of underlying demand were also very strong.
For all the predictions of a recession, G.D.P. growth actually *accelerated* in 2023, and topped the prepandemic average growth rate as well.
Job openings, quits and layoffs all edged down slightly in November. Consistent with a gradually cooling labor market, but definitely no sign things are falling off a cliff. #JOLTS
Data: bls.gov/news.release/j…
There were 8.8 million job openings on the last day of November. That's down a touch from October, but only because October was revised up. Big picture: Openings are trending down (and quite quickly, at that), but are still high by historical standards. #JOLTS
The number of job openings per unemployed worker actually ticked up in November (because unemployment fell), but ignore the noise. The labor market is becoming more balanced, though the ratio is (again) high relative to the prepandemic period.
The big increase in unemployment is mostly for "good" reasons: More people working, but also more people *looking* for work. Labor force grew by 736,000. Participation rate up by 0.2 percentage points.
U.S. employers added 253k jobs in April, defying (yet again) predictions of a slowdown. The unemployment rate ticked back down to 3.4%.
Data: bls.gov/news.release/e…
Full coverage: nytimes.com/live/2023/05/0…
Notably February and March both revised down, by a combined 149k jobs.
Average hourly earnings stronger than expected -- up 0.5% from March, 4.4% from a year earlier. Consistent with the ECI data showing little slowdown in wage growth.
As expected, the Fed raised interest rates by another quarter point, its tenth increase in a bit more than a year. Rates are now the highest they've been since 2007, before the global financial crisis.
Statement: federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pre…
Full coverage: nytimes.com/live/2023/05/0…
March statement: "The Committee anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate..."
May statement: "In determining the extent to which additional policy firming may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time..."
In response to question from @jeannasmialek, Powell says that, "A decision on a pause was not made today." But he says the removal of the "anticipates" language was a "meaningful change."