Thread by @DrTedJ

This is an interesting Buttigieg interview with @MaayanSchechter. You can read & watch it here: thestate.com/news/politics-…

This Buttigieg quote, though, stood out to me because it captures the train of thought I’ve been hearing more and more lately.

@MaayanSchechter Whenever I hear pols/pundits suggest that if their candidate can just win Iowa, black voters in SC will come around – and then cite Obama in 2008 as proof– my eyes roll. Obama ’08 is the exception, not the model.

But Kerry ’04, however, might be a model.
nytimes.com/2004/01/20/us/…

@MaayanSchechter Kerry’s national polling was hovering around 10% in the latter part of the invisible primary – and just 7% the week before the Iowa caucuses.

And then… he wins. And his national polling skyrockets.

@MaayanSchechter Before his Iowa win, Kerry was at 3% in SC, where black voters made up almost half of the primary electorate. Afterwards, he split most of the SC black vote w/ local candidate John Edwards & then Kerry wins black voters in almost every state afterwards
nbcnews.com/politics/elect…

@MaayanSchechter So if he were to win Iowa, Buttigieg may not trump the field, but he perhaps he’ll… *ahem* … Kerry it.

Two big issues, though. 1) in ’04, no one did well w/ black voters in SC prior to Iowa. Lots of undecideds. But this year, Biden is dominating.

people-press.org/2003/12/08/pri…

@MaayanSchechter 2) Electability was the thing Iowa voters said propelled Kerry to the top - they put aside their preferred candidates & chose Kerry (the “safer” choice) to beat Bush.

Today, voters seem to think Biden or Sanders are more electable than Buttigieg.

@MaayanSchechter So what now?

For Buttigieg’s momentum to win over some SC black voters: the field will need to narrow to about 3 or 4 viables; Biden can’t do better than 3rd/4th in IA, NH ≻ and Warren/Sanders round out the top 3.

Barring this, an IA win moving black voters is unlikely/.

@MaayanSchechter BTW, this is how campaigns shouldn't talk about black voters if they want to win more than half of them, which every Dem nom has done since '88.

Of course, there's a **SLIM** path to the nom w/o winning black voters - guess they're banking on that?

https://twitter.com/jslovegrove/status/1222213501080559617?s=20

@MaayanSchechter Electoral pragmatism means you don't follow sinking campaigns into the abyss - you jump ship bc pragmatism understands the ship's captain is far less important than the ships' destination.

Black voters aren't beholden to a candidate; they're interested in winning the White House

@MaayanSchechter Exactly! Just as I was saying in this thread from yesterday. It's much too reductive to suggest that Iowa is your fave candidate's ticket to black voters.

More 🔥🔥 from @AsteadWesley

nytimes.com/2020/01/29/us/…