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Theodore R. Johnson Profile picture
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1 Nov, 4 tweets, 2 min read
“Mr. Biden held a 78-11 percentage point lead among Black men ... a comparatively weak number for a Democratic nominee whose ticket includes the first Black woman selected as vice president.”

Not exactly. Trump has underperformed w/ black men relative to both Bushes & Reagan.
Any gains Trump is seeing - and they are not much at all - are just the type of black men who voted GOP pre-Obama simply coming home now that Obama is out of office.

If Trump is hoping black men will save him, he is going to be sorely disappointed next week.
And regarding polls/exits, remember this from 2018, when nearly 1 in 5 black WOMEN voted for GOP FL gov Ron DeSantis over Andrew Gillum???

You know why there weren’t 100 stories asking “are black women becoming Republican?” Bc the polling had clearly gotten it wrong.
But let’s say black turnout is through the roof & Trump gets 1 in 5 black men, Biden obtains even more of a net advantage bc of the high turnout, INCREASING his margin of victory among the black electorate.

Trump’s gambit only works if black turnout remains flat. And it ain’t.

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Theodore R. Johnson Profile picture
11 Jun
Today, as they say, I wrote a thing.

1st, that this article appears in @NRO is not immaterial.
2nd, it argues the current protests are hard evidence of the threat racism exposes.
3rd, that threat is an illiberal state with agents acting w/ impunity.

nationalreview.com/2020/06/americ…
"If we are to capitalize on the present crisis to strengthen America & make the Union a little more perfect, we are duty-bound to grapple w/ the abiding sense of injustice that is felt in black America & fuels civil unrest today, as it has for centuries"
nationalreview.com/2020/06/americ…
"For black Americans in particular, the killings of George Floyd, Ahmaud Arbery, and Breonna Taylor are not aberrations in an otherwise equitable system of justice. Rather, they are wholly consistent with the history of policing and vigilantism."

nationalreview.com/2020/06/americ…
Read 6 tweets
Theodore R. Johnson Profile picture
4 Mar
Biden had a good night & black voters in the South helped him to his biggest margins of victory

But if you look closely, you’d see something missing: the mythic “black monolith.” There was an observable regional character in the “black vote” yesterday.

brennancenter.org/our-work/analy…
We saw this coming; it was not a surprise. Biden won 61% of black voters in SC (20 points worse than Obama ’08 & Clinton ’16) and only beat Sanders by 10 points in Nevada, 38-28.
Yesterday, the trend held. Black voters in the South supported him in large numbers.

72% in Alabama. 71% in Virginia. 60% in Texas. 57% in NC. 53% in Tennessee. All less than Clinton ’16 & Obama ’08, who both won upwards of 80/90% of black voters in those states.
Read 10 tweets
Theodore R. Johnson Profile picture
28 Jan
This is an interesting Buttigieg interview with @MaayanSchechter. You can read & watch it here: thestate.com/news/politics-…

This Buttigieg quote, though, stood out to me because it captures the train of thought I’ve been hearing more and more lately.
@MaayanSchechter Whenever I hear pols/pundits suggest that if their candidate can just win Iowa, black voters in SC will come around – and then cite Obama in 2008 as proof– my eyes roll. Obama ’08 is the exception, not the model.

But Kerry ’04, however, might be a model.
nytimes.com/2004/01/20/us/…
@MaayanSchechter Kerry’s national polling was hovering around 10% in the latter part of the invisible primary – and just 7% the week before the Iowa caucuses.

And then… he wins. And his national polling skyrockets.
Read 10 tweets
Theodore R. Johnson Profile picture
17 Jan
This is a pretty interesting poll that seeks to take the temperature of black America.

There are a two things, though, I want to draw out – black optimistic/pessimistic outlooks and negative views about Trump.
washingtonpost.com/politics/black…
It shows that 2/3 black Americans are optimistic about their lives, but 2/3 also think it’s a bad time to be black in America

When this is coupled w/ the view that Trump is hurting America/black ppl, 2020 appears ripe for high turnout/Trump defeat

But not so fast, my friend…
If Dems are relying on black anger at/dissatisfaction w/ Trump to increase black turnout, they’ll lose.

A great new book from @Davin_Phoenix finds that anger DOES NOT mobilize black voters in the way that it does white voters (i.e. Trump alone will not drive up black turnout).
Read 5 tweets
Theodore R. Johnson Profile picture
6 Nov 19
Ok, Buttigieg & black folks.

Look, his inability to gain traction w/ black voters is MUCH less a function of his being gay than of his lack of connection/reputation. Of course there’s homophobia - in the US & in black America; the question is does it affect black vote choice…
We know that Buttigieg’s white support is on the rise while his black support has remained at or near statistical zero. This 3% in the latest YouGov poll shows how anemic his black support still is.
But here is what we also know….

His favorability is highest among black folks. The importance of gay rights is highest among black Americans. Black folks think he’s more electable than whites/Hispanics.
Read 9 tweets
Theodore R. Johnson Profile picture
22 Jul 19
One of the benefits of a large 2020 Dem field is what can be learned about voters’ preferences. For example, black conservatism – widely misunderstood – is presently on display & most of the nation is missing it. Let’s consider Booker & HBCUs.
In this CNN town hall video, Booker responds to a question about HBCU funding & touts Opportunity Zones (OZs). The OZ legislation was the pet project of GOP Sen. Tim Scott, who was able to get it into Trump’s tax cut bill in 2017.
OZs are decidedly conservative policy. They give capital gains tax breaks to private investors who put the $$ into a fund that invests in low-income areas.

HALF of the nation’s HBCUs are in such areas, thus, Booker argues, OZs would be a boon for them aei.org/publication/ed…
Read 11 tweets

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