THREAD: For your weekend enjoyment. I’ve been rewatching #epidemic #pandemic movies this week. Here’s what some of them get right and wrong. #nCoV2019 #coronavirus #coronavirusoutbreak
Let’s start with “World War Z.” justwatch.com/us/movie/world… There are lots of zombie/vampire movies/shows out there, many based on the premise that people become zombies/vampires when infected with a virus. #nCoV2019 #coronavirus #coronavirusoutbreak
Here’s what “World War Z” gets right: People panic. They get in their cars and run. They loot grocery stores. There are shortages of food, fuel, and medicines. #nCoV2019 #coronavirus #coronavirusoutbreak
And most importantly, “World War Z” gets this right: Walls won’t keep out viruses (or zombies). #nCoV2019 #coronavirus #coronavirusoutbreak
Here’s what “World War Z” gets wrong: No virus has a 12 second incubation period. It takes at least a minute for your blood to travel around the body, and it takes longer for your immune system to induce an immune response. #nCoV2019 #coronavirus #coronavirusoutbreak
And most importantly, “World War Z” gets this wrong: You can’t shoot your way out of a viral outbreak. #nCoV2019 #coronavirus #coronavirusoutbreak
Next: “Outbreak.” justwatch.com/us/movie/outbr… This one is based on the #Ebola virus. #nCoV2019 #coronavirus #coronavirusoutbreak
Here’s what “Outbreak” gets right: The Motaba virus (based on #Ebola) was awakened by men cutting down trees in the African forest. #nCoV2019 #coronavirus #coronavirusoutbreak
Deforestation (& climate change, overpopulation, etc) will lead us to come into contact with more zoonotic (i.e. animal) viruses. We’ll see more and more infectious disease outbreaks if these trends continue. #nCoV2019 #coronavirus #coronavirusoutbreak
Here’s what “Outbreak” gets wrong: We don’t bomb villages or towns to contain an outbreak. #Ebola doesn’t liquefy the organs of patients. #nCoV2019 #coronavirus #coronavirusoutbreak
The bleeding/bruising makeup is beyond fake. The fixation on tracking down the infected monkey makes no sense. They’d already isolated the virus. They could just have injected the virus into other animals to make antiserum. #nCoV2019 #coronavirus #coronavirusoutbreak
It would have taken months to make that much antiserum. Also, one monkey could not possibly have provided enough antiserum to save everyone. #nCoV2019 #coronavirus #coronavirusoutbreak
We’ve developed monoclonal antibody treatments of Ebola, but they’re no slam dunk, and none would have cured Renee Russo that quickly. ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31774950 #nCoV2019 #coronavirus #coronavirusoutbreak
Finally, we don’t have a biological/germ warfare program. Richard Nixon shut it down in 1969: ndupress.ndu.edu/Portals/68/Doc… #nCoV2019 #coronavirus #coronavirusoutbreak
And finally, my favorite of this bunch: “Contagion.” justwatch.com/us/movie/conta… It’s no surprise it’s the most accurate. Dr. Ian Lipkin at @Columbia and @Laurie_Garrett consulted on the film. #nCoV2019 #coronavirus #coronavirusoutbreak
@Columbia @Laurie_Garrett Here’s what “Contagion” gets right: Virus genes can recombine. Bird and pig #influenza can recombine & infect humans. It’s how where new pandemic strains of #influenza come from. #nCoV2019 #coronavirus #coronavirusoutbreak
@Columbia @Laurie_Garrett "Contagion" describes how different kinds of vaccines are made: inactivated/killed vaccines, live attenuated vaccines, and recombinant vaccines. The movie also accurately illustrates how contact tracing works. #nCoV2019 #coronavirus #coronavirusoutbreak
@Columbia @Laurie_Garrett Pandemics can lead to societal and government breakdown. Shortages of food and other essential supplies. Runs on banks. And the like. #nCoV2019 #coronavirus #coronavirusoutbreak
@Columbia @Laurie_Garrett Most importantly, “Contagion” gets this right: Parallel to infectious disease outbreaks emerge parallel outbreaks of fear, mistrust, and disinformation. #nCoV2019 #coronavirus #coronavirusoutbreak
@Columbia @Laurie_Garrett In the film, Alan Krumwiede (played by Jude Law) runs the blog TruthSerumNow. (Note how many of the peddlers of misinformation about the #nCoV2019 #coronavirus #coronavirusoutbreak have Twitter handles with “truth” in their name. buzzfeednews.com/article/janely…
@Columbia @Laurie_Garrett Krumwiede fakes being sick. He takes homeopathic forsythia on camera. And then fakes recovering from an infection he never had. He then tries to make a fortune selling forsythia. #nCoV2019 #coronavirus #coronavirusoutbreak
@Columbia @Laurie_Garrett Krumwiede also criticizes scientists hard at work to develop a vaccine. (Sound like anyone one Twitter?) #nCoV2019 #coronavirus #coronavirusoutbreak
@Columbia @Laurie_Garrett And in a show of pseudo-objectivity, cable news puts Krumwiede opposite the head of the @cdc, as if they were equivalent experts who should be given equal weight. #nCoV2019 #coronavirus #coronavirusoutbreak
@Columbia @Laurie_Garrett @cdc What did “Contagion” get wrong? The film focused too much on the U.S. Pandemics play out on a world stage, not in one country. #nCoV2019 #coronavirus #coronavirusoutbreak
@Columbia @Laurie_Garrett @cdc We could never develop a vaccine that quickly (144 days in the movie). In reality, it takes a MINIMUM of a year, and that’s if you’re lucky and already have a head start with related candidate vaccines. #nCoV2019 #coronavirus #coronavirusoutbreak
@Columbia @Laurie_Garrett @cdc You wouldn’t test a new #vaccine by injecting yourself and then declaring it safe and effective if you survived. And vaccines don’t take effect immediately. It takes time for the immune system to respond to #immunization. #nCoV2019 #coronavirus #coronavirusoutbreak
@Columbia @Laurie_Garrett @cdc I’ve left out some other critiques that are a bit more in the weeds. These are the big ones. Key takehome message: Hollywood gets a lot of the science wrong. But it gets human behavior (fear, panic, rumormongering, opportunism) right. #nCoV2019 #coronavirus #coronavirusoutbreak

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More from @celinegounder

Jun 19
1/ Why are People Promoting Raw Milk?
by @elizabethics for @RollingStone


If you drink unpasteurized milk, you don't just risk getting #H5N1 bird flu.rollingstone.com/culture/cultur…
2/ Image
3/ Image
Read 5 tweets
Jun 19
1/ Tick-borne infections are on the rise around the country

with @CBSMornings @GayleKing @tonydokoupil @nateburleson
2/ A unique collaboration among hunters,
the Texas Parks & Wildlife Department @TPWDnews,
& researchers at @Baylor University
is helping to map what tick-borne diseases can be found where.
3/ Lyme disease is the most common tick-borne infection in the US, but it's far from the only one.
hopkinslymetracker.org
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Jun 14
1/ #H5N1 bird flu update on @CBSMornings with @GayleKing @vladduthiersCBS @nateburleson

Who's at risk for bird flu right now?
🔹You're at risk if you're a dairy farmworker &/or if you drink raw milk.
2/
🔹If the virus mutates (which is what viruses do!) & becomes transmissible between humans, we could have a pandemic virus on our hands.
3/
🔹Flu viruses can mutate incrementally (drift) or dramatically (shift).
🔹We see dramatic shifts when 2 flu virus strains infect the same animal or person.
🔹Those 2 flu strains can swap "body parts" & form a Frankenstein virus.
Read 9 tweets
May 30
1/ #H5N1 bird influenza is deadly to birds.

Most of our flu vaccines are manufactured using eggs.

Birds lay eggs, but they can't do that if they're dead.

Houston, we have a problem.

cbsnews.com/video/scientis…Image
2/ Influenza virus is grown in eggs.

Then the virus is inactivated (i.e. killed) & formulated into flu vaccine.
3/ Cell-based vaccines (e.g. mammalian cells, insect cells) elicit better immune responses, but egg-based manufacturing has cornered the market on flu vaccines.

Pfizer & Moderna are developing mRNA vaccines for influenza.
Read 4 tweets
May 13
1/ What is H5N1 bird flu costing dairy cattle farmers?

Let's say you have a 5,000 cow dairy.

Those cows produce an average of 85 lbs of milk per day
= 425K lbs of milk/day x 7 days/week
= 2.975M lbs of milk/week
2/ Milk producers are paid by "hundredweight" (cwt).

The current class III price is $18.66/cwt of milk. Image
3/ So the gross revenues of the farm per week are:
2.975M / 100 x $18.66
= $555,135/week

The breakeven price
i.e. Gross revenue - Input Costs = 0
is between $17 & $21.
Read 7 tweets
May 10
1/ #H5N1 news today 📢📢📢

@USDA has announced an indemnification program for dairy farms to be based on the amount of milk🥛 lost from cows🐄 sick with H5N1.
2/ @USDA will also offer farmers support for biosecurity measures on the farm:
🔹to protect against potential spread between animals 🐄 & humans🧑‍🌾: PPE &/or outerwear laundering services
🔹to make biosecurity plans
🔹to pasteurize milk🥛 before disposal
3/ @USDA will also offer farmers support for biosecurity measures on the farm (continued):
🔹to offset costs of veterinary care for sick cattle🐄
🔹to offset costs of shipping samples for testing🧪
Read 15 tweets

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