Nice 2006 @nature paper evaluating influenza prevention and containment strategies, incl. antiviral, vaccine, & non-pharmaceutical measures (case isolation, household quarantine, school or workplace closure, restrictions on travel). #socy126 #COVID19 doi.org/10.1038/nature… 1/
Restricting importation of cases (e.g., by stopping flights) even at a rate of 90%, 99%, or 99.9%, if implemented on day 30 of a pandemic (which is when we might become aware), can only delay epidemic in USA by 10-42 days (not stop it). 2/ 
Delay in peak of US pandemic caused by internal travel restrictions for high (red) & moderate (blue) transmissibility. All policies start after 50 cases have been diagnosed. AC: all airports in the United States are closed to internal traffic. Again we only buy ~40 day delay. 3/
Impact of school closure is usually felt to be higher, but it must occur very early. So: delay in pandemic from *reactive* school closures (closing 100% of schools & 10% of workplaces from day after first case until 3 wks after last case) is in red; with 50% workplaces in blue 4/
