The #extremes are extremely difficult to digest and accept. I remember buying at 10k sensex , nifty 3000 in oct 2008 and seeing 8000 and 2250 in next 4 sessions. Vix hit 85. The crazy moves break all price levels but do not stay there forever. Was back to 3000 in 5 sessions.
This time around all sentiment indicators rsi, vix, stocks below demas, max fall etc are near to readings of 2008 but that happened after a 50% fall and then another 20. This is happening after a 20% fall from highs in quick time.
The trigger this time around is #coronavirus is not a financial one and that will take its time to resolve as no one #fed or #ecb#rbi can come and cool the nerves. What bottoming was expected in 2-4 weeks can now happen in 2-4 days. The best thing to sometimes is to nothing!!
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10 Most Interesting Videos on the CFA Society India Channel.
Take your time and go through them. Would recommend attending the physical events too.
@CFASocietyIndia
1) Brave New World | Ritesh Jain, Co-founder, Pinetree Macro.
He spoke about the liquidity way of investing, Tracking the global liquidity flow across past decades, how liquidity impacts economies, market returns based on liquidity.
2) Dimensions of Mistakes in Investing |
Utpal Sheth, CEO & Senior Partner, RARE Enterprises. He spoke about importance of overcoming natural instincts in investing, focusing on the long-term strategic picture, and sizing bets to match one's conviction.
In this series, we cover interesting stories and insights of legendary investors which will give invaluable lessons in the journey of investing
In this thread, Kenneth Andrade explained how using #TechnoFunda does not work on huge PF size !!
According to him both the studies contradicts each other, example, A technical chart will tell you to sell it 20% below your purchase price and as a Fundamental analyst you will double your position at 50% below your purchase price so those things are conflicting
In his career he held “MRF” from 2003 to 2015 it was 110 times up, held “Page industries” from 2007 to 2015 it gave an 80x or 90x, & Kaveri seeds which gave 70x
After this there’s just one question he asks is why would you want to sell a business where fundamentals are improving
1) Leadership Changing in Banks, 2) NBFCs breakout, 3) PSE FOMO to set in, 4) New Age Cos Bottomed, 5) Smallcap Oops Moment !!
BankNifty@44k
HDFCBank (28% Wt) - 1750 a major resistance.
KotakBank - (10% Wt) - 2000 resistance.
ICICI Bank strength continues.
SBI crossing 600 confirmation of strength.
AxisBank & Indusind Bank ( 1250 resistance ) can be new leaders.
Be selective.
NBFCs, SFBs
Old thumb rule - NBFCs, Banks can outperform when Rate Cycle has peaked or the rally starts with Big Banks to Small Banks and then Nbfcs
A lot of charts trying to make 2-3 yr highs- Ujjivan, LTFH, M&M Finance, IDFC twins, Equitas, Chola, Federal , Muthoot Cap, etc