Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #fed
Most recents (24)
I’ve been asked on here about the link between #Eurodollar creation and current (US) #inflation and the power of the #Fed to fight it. Since I get this question often, I thought I do a quick thread about it. (1/10)
In ch. 2 of “Offshore Finance and State Power” I explain how banks outside the US can create US$ by issuing debt. These #Eurodollar look like US$, but are different b/c a different legal code is attached to them (mostly English law) tinyurl.com/yhefwrxh (2/10)
The obvious follow up questions are: 1) Can these #Eurodollar cycle back into the US economy? 2) Can they create #inflation there? 3) Given they are created outside the US, does the #Fed have the power to fight inflation? (3/10)
Herkese günaydın 🤗Dün açıklanan birkaç #makroekonomi verisinden bahsederek konuya giriş yapalım.Dün #ABD - Yeni konut satış verisi açıklandı ve bir önceki veriye göre artış gösterdi.
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Yeni ev satışları, konut sektöründeki faaliyetlerin ve istihdamın bir göstergesi olarak ekonomiye katkı sağlar. Yeni evlerin inşası, inşaat sektörüne iş imkanı yaratır ve malzeme tedarikçileri, taşeronlar ve müteahhitler gibi diğer sektörler de bu faaliyetten faydalanır.
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Yeni evlerin satışı, ayrıca tüketici harcamalarında artışa neden olabilir ve bu da ekonominin büyümesine katkıda bulunabilir.Ancak, yüksek talep, düşük arz ve sınırlı ev stoku gibi faktörler nedeniyle yeni ev fiyatları arttıkça,#enflasyon da etkileyebilirler.
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Herkese günaydın 🤗 Dün piyasanın fiyatladığı gibi 25 bps faiz arttırımı geldi.#Powell'ın açıklamalarından çıkan sonuca gelicek olursak.#Fed ve powell,bankacılık sektöründeki son olayların etkilerine rağmen ekonominin sağlam olduğunu vurgularken
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faiz oranlarında önemli bir değişiklik olmayacağını öngördü. Ancak, Powell, faizleri yükseltmeye hazır olduklarını belirtti ve enflasyonun hedef seviyesine ulaşması için ek faiz artırımlarının gerekebileceğini ifade etti.
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Powell, 21 Mart 2023 tarihinde yapmış olduğu açıklamada, ABD'deki ekonomik durumu belirleyen en iyi gösterge olarak, faiz oranı eğrisinin ilk 18 ayına bakmanın önemli olduğunu belirtmiştir.
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🇺🇸 #Fed #Recession #Inflation | Lower tax refunds, uncertainty regarding the banking sector, upcoming tightening credit conditions and weather normalization should weigh on consumer spending from March ⚠ (1/8) ⬇
🇺🇸 According to latest IRS data, average refunds fell 11% YoY to $2,972 (after boosting spending earlier this year). This dynamic is expected to persist in the short term (2/8)
irs.gov/newsroom/filin…
irs.gov/newsroom/filin…
🇺🇸 Data released after turbulences in the banking sector also suggest consumers became cautious. Citi pointed out that its proprietary credit card data revealed a 10.3% ⬇ in spending in the week-ended 18-Mar., biggest ⬇ since the pandemic began (3/8)
Die US-Notenbank Federal Reserve versucht mit ihrem heutigen langsameren Kurs der #Zinserhöhungen einen schwierigen Spagat zwischen #Preisstabilität und Finanzstabilität.
Eine kurze Einschätzung im 🧵:
spiegel.de/wirtschaft/us-…
Eine kurze Einschätzung im 🧵:
spiegel.de/wirtschaft/us-…
Die Entscheidung ist riskant, weil sie Unsicherheit schafft über Kurs und Prioritäten. Der wichtigste Grund ist wohl die Sorge, dass man mit einem Kurswechsel mehr Sorgen über die Gesundheit von Banken und des Finanzsystems preisgeben würde, als zu diesem Zeitpunkt lieb ist.
Es ist wohl die Sorge um selbsterfüllende Erwartungen und eine Vertrauenskrise in den Kapitalmärkten. Man will vermeiden, dass Sparer und Investoren ihre Gelder abziehen und damit eine Bankenkrise (mit) auslösen, die die Wirtschaft in schwierigen Zeiten in eine Rezession treibt.
TODAY we have the #FOMC meeting.
The expectations are 10.7% for no rate hike (0 points) and 89.3% for a 25-point hike. In this thread, we'll explore why and how the Federal Reserve uses interest rates as a tool, other tools and the history behind it, and some examples 👇
The expectations are 10.7% for no rate hike (0 points) and 89.3% for a 25-point hike. In this thread, we'll explore why and how the Federal Reserve uses interest rates as a tool, other tools and the history behind it, and some examples 👇
Before we continue, if you would like to learn more about what the FOMC is doing and the impacted on the market. You can read my thread from yesterday. Just follow the link:
The #Fed uses interest rates as a key tool in managing the US economy. By changing interest rates, the Fed can influence borrowing, spending, and inflation, helping to stabilize the economy and achieve its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability.
Herkese günaydın öncelikle #ramazan ayımız mübarek olsun🤗bugün #bitcoin ve piyasalar için önemli bir gün.#FED , #enflasyon ve banka krizilerinin arasında kritik bir karar vericek. (kriptoles.com/22-mart-bitcoi…)
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#Fed'in #faiz oranlarını 0.25 puan artıracağına ve böylece faiz oranlarının %4,75 ila %5 aralığına yükseleceğine dair yaklaşık %87 oranında bir olasılık hesaplanıyorr. Bu oran son olarak 2007 yılında küresel finansal krizin başlangıcında görülen seviyelere ulaşmıştı.
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Wall Street bankaları,#Fed'in faiz oranlarını duraklatıp artırmayacağı konusunda ikiye bölünmüş durumda.Ama çoğunluk 25 bps arttıracağı yönünde düşünüyor.
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美联储新一轮议息会议将在明日凌晨两点召开
#Fed #美联储利率公布
下面是关于加息你必须要知道的
1⃣什么是加息？
加息是指提高美国联邦基金利率，是银行和银行之间为了应付央行强制要求上缴的存款准备金暂缺而临时互相借钱的利息，原本商业银行是可以自行决定自己借出或借入资金的利率
#Fed #美联储利率公布
下面是关于加息你必须要知道的
1⃣什么是加息？
加息是指提高美国联邦基金利率，是银行和银行之间为了应付央行强制要求上缴的存款准备金暂缺而临时互相借钱的利息，原本商业银行是可以自行决定自己借出或借入资金的利率
美联储作为中央银行无法直接参与，但其通过提高超额存款准备金利率和美联储隔夜逆回购利率，将应该在银行间同业拆借市场流通的钱吸引走，着急给央行缴纳存款准备金的银行只能接受较高的同业拆借利率才能借到钱，提高了商业银行的借贷成本和美元的增值，投资市场的资金就会更加倾向回流为美元；
2⃣对币圈的影响是什么？
答案是美联储加息对币圈是利空，原因如下：
从避险角度来说，市场投资人更愿意拥有避险资产，而非风险资产
1、美元作为主要的避险资产，加息对美元而言，更为值钱，拥有美元能够尽享美元升值的收益；又能够享受到拥有美元带来的超量利息收益，并且这是零风险收益
答案是美联储加息对币圈是利空，原因如下：
从避险角度来说，市场投资人更愿意拥有避险资产，而非风险资产
1、美元作为主要的避险资产，加息对美元而言，更为值钱，拥有美元能够尽享美元升值的收益；又能够享受到拥有美元带来的超量利息收益，并且这是零风险收益
A thread 🧵 on #CentralBanks for your awareness.
Gold has been considered hard money for 5000 years. 20% of all the gold ever mined is owned by central banks of the world. Why do central banks buy gold?
- Balancing foreign exchange reserves
- Hedging against fiat currencies
-… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Gold has been considered hard money for 5000 years. 20% of all the gold ever mined is owned by central banks of the world. Why do central banks buy gold?
- Balancing foreign exchange reserves
- Hedging against fiat currencies
-… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
How much gold do we have in the entire world?
A cube (22m x 22m x 22m) is all the gold ever mined.
- 201,296 tons of gold (above ground, extracted)
- 53,000 tons of gold (below ground, unextracted)
46% used for jewelry
17% held by central banks
22% held by private investors… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
A cube (22m x 22m x 22m) is all the gold ever mined.
- 201,296 tons of gold (above ground, extracted)
- 53,000 tons of gold (below ground, unextracted)
46% used for jewelry
17% held by central banks
22% held by private investors… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Here’s a prev 🧵 on #FederalReserve the largest central bank in the world
Tweet mañanero y Cuenta atrás.
DESCONFIANZA
No metas tus perras en la fondue de queso
DESCONFIANZA
No metas tus perras en la fondue de queso
Nos espera una semana interesantísima. Un cierto respiro para los bancos y relacionados, tiempo que ganan para encontrar una solución al dilema. El miércoles, el papelón de Powell.
Cronología:
El fin de semana ha visto a los directivos y muchos empleados en las oficinas, incluso a horas intempestivas. No tan solo en los bancos bajo fuego directo (Credit Suisse, #FRB, Deutsche Bank) reconocido oficialmente.
El fin de semana ha visto a los directivos y muchos empleados en las oficinas, incluso a horas intempestivas. No tan solo en los bancos bajo fuego directo (Credit Suisse, #FRB, Deutsche Bank) reconocido oficialmente.
Incroyable séquence.
Un sénateur arrive à faire dire à la secrétaire au Trésor que seuls les dépôts dans les mastodontes bancaires sont garantis du fait du risque systémique.
Le baiser de la mort pour les petites banques !
La logique du "too big to fail" poussée à son extrême.
Un sénateur arrive à faire dire à la secrétaire au Trésor que seuls les dépôts dans les mastodontes bancaires sont garantis du fait du risque systémique.
Le baiser de la mort pour les petites banques !
La logique du "too big to fail" poussée à son extrême.
Qui voudra garder son argent dans une petite banque après cet aveu de Janet #Yellen, qui fut aussi Présente de la #Fed ?
D'ailleurs, le mouvement a déjà commencé : "Après la faillite de trois banques, les banques "too big to fail se retrouvent avec des dépôts en abondance".
D'ailleurs, le mouvement a déjà commencé : "Après la faillite de trois banques, les banques "too big to fail se retrouvent avec des dépôts en abondance".
La concentration bancaire aux États-Unis est lancée.
La remontée des taux supposée lutter contre l'inflation a surtout profiter aux grandes banques américaines.
D'où la confirmation qu'au milieu de toute crise, se trouve l'opportunité.
La remontée des taux supposée lutter contre l'inflation a surtout profiter aux grandes banques américaines.
D'où la confirmation qu'au milieu de toute crise, se trouve l'opportunité.
BTC Price Skyrockets 🚀– What's Next for Bitcoin?
Click "like" and RT for more content 🧵
1/ The Fed signaled that it tightened too hard and may need to pause or cut rates, which has to #bitcoin hitting $27K over night.
But where next for bitcoin? Lets dive in...
Click "like" and RT for more content 🧵
1/ The Fed signaled that it tightened too hard and may need to pause or cut rates, which has to #bitcoin hitting $27K over night.
But where next for bitcoin? Lets dive in...
2/ 📊 Recent data from Cointelegraph and TradingView revealed BTC/USD hitting $27,025 before consolidating. At the time of writing, the pair is around $26,500 , but WHY the sudden surge....? #BitcoinPriceMovement
3/ 🚀 A catalyst for this fresh upside came from the Federal Reserve's balance sheet data, showing almost $300 billion being injected into the economy as part of the banking crisis response. This further fueled the price movement for Bitcoin. #FederalReserve #BTC
The US #Fed is on an ambitious mission to reduce its balance sheet & hike interest rates
As a result, the financial & tech sectors are experiencing significant disruptions & setbacks
BUT
This creates ONCE IN A GENERATION opportunity for #blockchains like #Cardano
Why?🧵👇
As a result, the financial & tech sectors are experiencing significant disruptions & setbacks
BUT
This creates ONCE IN A GENERATION opportunity for #blockchains like #Cardano
Why?🧵👇
So, what is the balance sheet, and why does it exist?👇
The Federal Reserve employs various tools to regulate the financial system
including manipulating the flow & cost of capital
Typically, the preferred methods of achieving these objectives are through interest rates
BUT
The Federal Reserve employs various tools to regulate the financial system
including manipulating the flow & cost of capital
Typically, the preferred methods of achieving these objectives are through interest rates
BUT
In certain circumstances, the Fed turns to its BALANCE SHEET
another instrument from its monetary policy toolbox to control the money supply
So what is Fed's Balance sheet?
The Fed balance sheet represents the assets & liabilities of the United States Federal Reserve
another instrument from its monetary policy toolbox to control the money supply
So what is Fed's Balance sheet?
The Fed balance sheet represents the assets & liabilities of the United States Federal Reserve
🧵 1/ So the #Fed added $300B to its balance sheet seemingly overnight.
What you’re seeing for #Bitcoin isn’t organic demand.
It’s a speculative boost.
Yes, we’re in a speculative market but for a bull market we need sustained capital injection.
Banks are literally broke. 👇
What you’re seeing for #Bitcoin isn’t organic demand.
It’s a speculative boost.
Yes, we’re in a speculative market but for a bull market we need sustained capital injection.
Banks are literally broke. 👇
2/ These rallies can’t be sustained into long-term uptrends imo.
They must remain as rallies.
ESPECIALLY if you want more upside in the future.
The higher we go now, the more of a cap is place on the future upside.
Why?
QE, even by any other name cannot continue forever.
They must remain as rallies.
ESPECIALLY if you want more upside in the future.
The higher we go now, the more of a cap is place on the future upside.
Why?
QE, even by any other name cannot continue forever.
3/ Yes, Bitcoin might be seen as a “safe haven” against out of control central banks.
But guess what, when your safe haven asset can rise 10-20% in pure speculation, or drop 50%+ in a few months.
Institutions don’t want to enter something like that.
Nor do wealthy individuals
But guess what, when your safe haven asset can rise 10-20% in pure speculation, or drop 50%+ in a few months.
Institutions don’t want to enter something like that.
Nor do wealthy individuals
BLACK SWAN EVENT
All da banks is locking arms to stop dis ...
Da Fed committed to a $2T infusion dat is currently pumping markets ...
Da dolla is done ...
Say hello to hyper inflation ...
Digital currency this year.
All da banks is locking arms to stop dis ...
Da Fed committed to a $2T infusion dat is currently pumping markets ...
Da dolla is done ...
Say hello to hyper inflation ...
Digital currency this year.
All da stimmy monies from 2020 hit da banks and per #BCBS regs they have to keep a certain % of da deposits in reserves.
Long-dated are typically da "Gold Standard" fer dis. They are usually a "Risk-Free" investment with enuff return to offset inflation.
It's a win-win fer all
Long-dated are typically da "Gold Standard" fer dis. They are usually a "Risk-Free" investment with enuff return to offset inflation.
It's a win-win fer all
Except last year, da @FedralReserve started hiking interest rates at a retarded rate.
Dis (1) Depressed Risk Appetite (2) Increased Demand fer Cash and (3) Cranked up Return on Short-term Gubment Debt
Da first 2 killed equities but da last one is da real killer.
Dis (1) Depressed Risk Appetite (2) Increased Demand fer Cash and (3) Cranked up Return on Short-term Gubment Debt
Da first 2 killed equities but da last one is da real killer.
1/ Pausen, Zinserhöhungen und Rezessionen - ein Blick auf die vergangenen Zyklen der Zinserhöhungen und die daraus gezogenen Lehren. Ein Thread 🧵
#FED #Zins #Fintwit #Aktien #EZB #ECB #Wirtschaft
#FED #Zins #Fintwit #Aktien #EZB #ECB #Wirtschaft
2/ In den letzten zwei Jahrzehnten gab es drei Zinserhöhungsszyklen, von denen alle von Rezessionen begleitet wurden. Betrachten wir zunächst die Dotcom-Blase, die kurz nach einer Zinspause der FED im März 2000 platzte. (Abb.1)
3/ Die FED stoppte darauf hin im Mai 2000 ihre Zinserhöhungen, was zu einer Pause von 10 Monaten führte. Der Nasdaq verlor in der Folge 78% seines Höchststands bis Oktober 2002.
1/7 Few thoughts about the expansion of M0 that is not QE but seems like it could turn into it.
The #Fed has turned the spigots on BTFP. At first it looks like your traditional lender of last resort thing and backstop of credit.
The #Fed has turned the spigots on BTFP. At first it looks like your traditional lender of last resort thing and backstop of credit.
2/7 However, the nature of the "credit" to be backstopped is very unusual. #TSY. If this facility does not revert quickly, continues to grow beyond the panic, the conclusion? The Treasury and the Fed have fully merged. The #Fed is just another (North) LATAM central bank.
3/7 What is also means is the bond stuffing is starting to make the banking system wobble and TSY are puked by the banking system. Kemmerer mentioned in 1920 that TSY are unsuited to be in the banking system for various reasons.
1/ MỘT KẾ HOẠCH KHỔNG LỒ VỚI #FedNow .
Rỏ ràng ông #Powell không nói nhầm, và cũng không nói đùa.
Ý của ông ấy không chỉ là #CBDC , mà còn có 1 thứ còn đáng sợ hơn #CBDC đó là #FedNow - dịch vụ chuyển tiền xuyên biên giới tức thì, 24/7, 365 ngày/ năm.
...
Rỏ ràng ông #Powell không nói nhầm, và cũng không nói đùa.
Ý của ông ấy không chỉ là #CBDC , mà còn có 1 thứ còn đáng sợ hơn #CBDC đó là #FedNow - dịch vụ chuyển tiền xuyên biên giới tức thì, 24/7, 365 ngày/ năm.
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2/ #Fednow là dịch vụ được phát hành và điều hành trực tiếp bởi cục dự trử liên bang Mỹ- FED.
Trước đây, cục này có một vài dịch vụ tài chính như lưu ký, DV chứng khoán, DV quỹ, ... đa phần là nhắm đến các tổ chức Tài chính.
Còn lần này,#FedNow rất khác
Trước đây, cục này có một vài dịch vụ tài chính như lưu ký, DV chứng khoán, DV quỹ, ... đa phần là nhắm đến các tổ chức Tài chính.
Còn lần này,#FedNow rất khác
3/ #FedNow cung cấp các dịch vụ chuyển tiền rất đa dạng: P2P ( người với người), A2A ( tài khoản với tài khoản như Crypto là ví với ví), B2B ( doanh nghiệp-DN), B2C ( doanh nghiệp vs người tiêu dùng), C2B, người tiêu dùng đến các tổ chức tài chính, ....
Herkese günaydın 🤗 öncelikle dün açıklanan makro verilerden bahsedelim.Perakende satışları,ABD'deki perakende satışlarının Şubat 2023'te, piyasa beklentilerine göre %0.3 azalması beklenirken %0.4 düştüğü açıklandı.
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Ocak ayında da %3.2 artış yaşanmıştı.En büyük düşüş mobilya mağazalarında (%2.5), yiyecek-içecek hizmetleri sektöründe (%2.2), çeşitli perakende satış noktalarında (%1.8), otomobil ve parça satıcılarında (%1.8)
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giyim mağazalarında (%0.8) ve benzin istasyonlarında (%0.6) yaşandı.Bununla birlikte, online perakendecilerde (%1.6), sağlıkta (%0.9), yiyecek-içecek mağazalarında (%0.5%), genel mal mağazalarında (%0.5) ve elektronik ve ev aletlerinde (%0.3) artış görüldü.
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#FederalReserve is the largest central bank in the world.
Citizen vs. State: If you look at the original founding principle objectives of the federal reserve, you can’t find a single one which benefits the citizen. The fifth objective is clearly a great lie we’ve all been… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Citizen vs. State: If you look at the original founding principle objectives of the federal reserve, you can’t find a single one which benefits the citizen. The fifth objective is clearly a great lie we’ve all been… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Here’s a prev 🧵 on #FederalReserve
Just an FYI. I tweet from my readings and curated knowledge of the masses. I’m no banking contagion expert 😂
Herkese Günaydın 🤗, dün #ABD'de açıklanan #enflasyon verisi, #Bitcoin'in yukarı yönlü fiyatlanmasına neden oldu. Rapora göre, tüketici fiyatları endeksi (#CPI) ocak ayında %6,4 arttıktan sonra şubatta %6 artarak piyasa beklentileriyle uyumlu gerçekleşti.
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Gıda ve enerji hariç tüm kalemleri kapsayan çekirdek #CPI endeksi, ocak ayına göre %0.5 artış gösterdi ve bu artış piyasa beklentilerinin üzerinde oldu. (daha ayrıntılı bilgi için 👉kriptoles.com/15-mart-bitcoi…)
#enflasyon verisinin beklenti halinde gelmesi #bitcoin tarafında olumlu karşılandı ama unutulmaması gereken birşey var "#enflasyon halen daha %2 hedeften uzak" ve önümüzdeki süreçte #FED atacağı adımlar önemli.
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Thread
Dans sa fuite en avant, la #Fed change les règles comme on change de chemise.
Elle va permettre aux banques d'emprunter des liquidités sur un an en apportant en garantie des obligations valorisée à leur valeur de départ, et non à la valeur de marché.
#BFTP
Dans sa fuite en avant, la #Fed change les règles comme on change de chemise.
Elle va permettre aux banques d'emprunter des liquidités sur un an en apportant en garantie des obligations valorisée à leur valeur de départ, et non à la valeur de marché.
#BFTP
Avec la hausse des taux opérée depuis un an, certaines obligations ont perdu jusqu'à 30% de leur valeur.
En valorisant ces obligations sans décote, en théorie cela veut dire que la #Fed donne tort au marché dans sa valorisation des obligations.
En somme, la Fed tord la réalité.
En valorisant ces obligations sans décote, en théorie cela veut dire que la #Fed donne tort au marché dans sa valorisation des obligations.
En somme, la Fed tord la réalité.
C'est comme si le commun des mortels pouvait aller emprunter 30000€ à la banque en apportant en garantie une voiture toute cabossée achetée 30000€ quelques années auparavant.
A raiz de lo que paso con #silliconvalleybank creo que es muy importante hacer un hilo corto explicando como funciona el mercado de #bonos y su importancia para todo nosotros. Va una "clase" en🧵
Recuerden darle❤️y🔁
#Economia #EducacionFinanciera #Colombia
Recuerden darle❤️y🔁
#Economia #EducacionFinanciera #Colombia
¿Qué son los bonos? Es deuda emitida por el gobierno de EE. UU. para financiar sus gastos. basica/ son
préstamos que los inversores hacen al gobierno, y a cambio reciben intereses. Los bonos son considerados seguros, ya que el gobierno tiene una alta probabilidad de pagarlos.
préstamos que los inversores hacen al gobierno, y a cambio reciben intereses. Los bonos son considerados seguros, ya que el gobierno tiene una alta probabilidad de pagarlos.
Los inversores pueden comprar y vender bonos después de que han sido emitidos en cualquier momento.
suele pensarse que al ser instrumentos de "renta fija" ofrecen una rentabilidad fija en todo momento lo cual es falso, pues al negociarse anticipadamente pueden haber perdidas.
suele pensarse que al ser instrumentos de "renta fija" ofrecen una rentabilidad fija en todo momento lo cual es falso, pues al negociarse anticipadamente pueden haber perdidas.
A week ago, after hearing #ChairPowell’s testimony before Congress, all eyes were set to be on today’s #inflation data, which presumably would help market participants better understand the #FOMC’s policy reaction at its March 22nd meeting.
What a difference a week makes these days! Of course, all eyes are still on today’s data, but now there are many other things we need to consider (such as #FinancialStability concerns), when judging the reaction function of the @federalreserve.
As we have long contended, #markets tend to be fairly myopic and lacking in patience, so having to focus on more than one news item at a time causes tremendous #uncertainty and thus greater market #volatility.
