Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #fed

Most recents (24)

I've been asked to explain, why instability in the repo markets is so detrimental for financial stability.

So, here's a thread on why repo-markets may soon be causing chaos, again, helped by the move by @BNYMellon . 1/22
@GnSEconomics @AaronCuttingham
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
“Repo” markets are a collateralized loan market.

A borrower sells notes, usually Treasury bonds, to a lender and agrees to buy them back over a relatively short timeframe at a higher price creating a premium, a sort of interest payment.

Generally, the repo markets ,... 2/
... are used by financial institutions, like banks, hedge funds, government institutions and retirement funds, to fund their very short-term (usually daily) financial needs.

Problems in the market may emerge from lack of trust, as in September 2019, or from rapidly rising... 3/
Read 22 tweets
Citibank 1/7: US #CPI strong on transitory components & solid shelter prices
Citi analysts take – the strong increase in March US core CPI released overnight is in line with upside surprises expected in the coming months as a number of components normalize.
Citibank 2/7: Key shelter prices in CPI however show signs of potential earlier-than-expected firming with another solid increase in owners’ equivalent rent (OER), the key shelter price component of consumer price inflation and the largest share of CPI.
Citibank 3/7: Overall, US core CPI in March rises 0.339%MoM, stronger than consensus for 0.2%. Meanwhile core CPI YoY rises to 1.6% and headline CPI gains 0.6%MoM on strength in energy (+5%) and food (up a modest 0.1%).
Read 7 tweets
Thread: Interesting results from the NY Fed’s March surveys. Bottom line, the surveys confirm that the #Fed is getting only half of its message across to investors.

First, both primary dealers and market participants see high odds of early and fast liftoff. 1/6
Second, the odds of 2022 liftoff are about flat since December, but the odds of 2023 liftoff have increased to about 70%, according to primary dealers. A bit less according to broader market participants. 2/6
What is perplexing is that investors believe in early/fast liftoff despite seeing PCE inflation not even at target as a base case for the next 5 years or the subsequent 5 years.

Table shows PCE inflation translated from original CPI inflation in the surveys. 3/6
Read 6 tweets
ING Bank 1/4: #Eurozone: Waiting for the European phoenix
1Q21 will not be remembered as the finest hours of European politics. The glacial roll-out of vaccination programmes and the ‘crown jewel’ of the EU’s fiscal stimulus – the EU’s €750bn Recovery Fund –
ING Bank 2/4: is gathering dust in a Karlsruhe courtroom stand in stark contrast to the achievements in the US. Yet all is not lost. European manufacturing is holding up well and there are signs of life in the EU vaccine roll-out.
ING Bank 3/4: Our #EURUSD profile is slightly dimmed, but we still expect the #EUR to arise from the ashes of European policy. It should be in a position to challenge 1.25 – though probably not now until the third quarter.
Read 4 tweets
Danske Bank 1/4: #EURUSD finished last week slightly below 1.19, having rallied since Easter. This week, focus will likely turn to US inflation, which is set to accelerate towards 2.5% as well as a number of #Fed speeches.
#forex #forextrade #forextrading #fxstreet #trading
Danske Bank 2/4: Naturally, market will also focus if dollar weakness can be sustained further. With inflation set to rise and the theme of repricing yields having stalled, there may be scope for Fed to push the dollar lower here.
Danske Bank 3/4: In our base case, though, we see levels above 1.19 as good for selling #EURUSD.
#EURGBP continues to trade below 0.87 amid AstraZeneca issues, lower vaccine deliveries, Northern Ireland riots and the upcoming Scottish Parliament election on 6 May.
Read 4 tweets
Que penser lorsque les épargnants hurlent à l'idée de se faire taxer leurs euros dans leur comptes courant, mais qui ne se rendent pas compte que l'argent subie déjà une taxe invisible, l'#inflation, qui est un phénomène fortement lié à la création monétaire par le crédit ?
Même avec les chiffres de l'INSEE qui sous-évalue la hausse réelle des prix, 100€ de 2008 ne valent plus en pouvoir d'achat que 85€ en 2021.
On entend pas les épargnants hurler leur désespoir. Mais à qui profite vraiment la création monétaire, le crédit, les intérêts touchés ?
Ceux qui hurlent quand il s'agit de taxer la monnaie elle-même, acceptent de payer l'impôt sur le revenu du travail qui a été introduit en 1913 aux États-Unis pour payer les intérêts de la dette publique à la banque centrale nouvellement créée, la #FED, une institution privée.
Read 4 tweets
1/8 This is a thread about whether Fed policy is really as easy and dovish as it seems and as the Fed intends it to be.

I would argue it is not, and not because the Fed doesn't want it to be, but because markets are skeptical of the new Fed's framework, as the chart shows.
2/8 Monetary policy works via financial markets, and financial markets price interest rates in part based on expectations of what the Fed will do in the future.

This year, markets have pushed up the expected path for the fed funds rate a lot, despite the Fed's reassurances.
3/8 That investors are not in sync with the Fed is also evident from surveys — see this thread for our @csmresearch recent survey of investors expectations and for how it is not consistent with the Fed’s intentions.
Read 8 tweets
My read on #Fed press conference is broadly Bullish risky assets including #bitcoin. Points JP made that leads me to thsi conclusion:
- Unemployment rate understates problem as labor participation rate is lower
- Economy is 9.5m jobs below pre pandemic
...
- we will aim for inflation higher than 2% for some time
- We are looking for broad based and inclusive labor market improvement
- We won't taper asset purchases before economy has made "substantial progress towards max employment and inflation expectation firmly at 2%" ...
- We want to give notice WELL in advance of actual tapering of the asset purchases (meaning they won't just reduce them next meeting out of the blue)
- Talked down moving of rate projections of some slightly upwards in 2023 by reaffiriming stance on asset purchases and rates...
Read 6 tweets
1/5 As promised, here are the results of our survey of expectations ahead to tomorrow' #FOMC meeting.

Respondents see strong growth this year and (substantially less so) later. But they don't see either the labor market close to maximum employment or inflation overshooting. Image
2/5 This notwithstanding, 77% or respondents see the Fed raising rates before the end of 2013. I read this, coupled with the modest forecast for inflation, as a sign that investors do not fully believe that the Fed is committed to its new average inflation targeting framework. Image
3/5 To be sure, the median and average trajectories for the funds rate that respondents have in mind are not aggressive. But the seeming lack of confidence in the new framework should be concerning to the #Fed. Expect further attempts at (verbal only) clarification. Image
Read 5 tweets
Répondre à des questions souvent posées : pourquoi l’Union européenne @UEenRDC fait-elle de l’aide publique au développement (presque toujours sous forme de dons) à la #RDC? Comment l’#UE met-elle en œuvre ses projets? Comment sont choisies priorités et zones d’intervention? #FIL
L’aide publique au développement #UE répond d’abord à un engagement international négocié ds les années 1960 #ONU #OCDE : celui pris par les pays riches de transférer annuellement 0,7 % de leur PIB aux pays les plus pauvres pour les aider à rattraper leur retard de développement.
Les États membres de l’Union européenne ont très vite décidé de faire transiter une partie de leur aide par un budget communautaire spécifique : le Fonds Européen de Développement (dès 1957, le traité de Rome prévoyait cette possibilité). En 2020, vient de s’achever le 11ème #FED
Read 18 tweets
I am 55/45 leaning towards: the market will simply discount higher rates in the future, but liquidity is still plentiful and those tech stocks and #bitcoin are quite a bit cheaper now so maybe ppl buy. That's my hope.

But can't stress enough: closer to the end than the beginning
Positioning in $BtC futures as well as leverage and #tehter premium in discount certainly would allow for some bounce...
Read 3 tweets
THREAD: on.wsj.com/3aXrh1C at some point, the #FED and the other central banks will have to change status. It might take a creash to do it.(/) @amlivemon @jeuasommenulle @nglinsman @Halsrethink @bondstrategist @DiMartinoBooth @DavidBCollum
1. they might either fall under an higher supervisory authority checking every financial aspect of their activity apart from setting official rate and providing liquidity though banks and have, for example, ALL influence of banking instruments sold wrested away.(/)
2. since their activity has been for over a decade not "policy neutral", they might be forced to become "elected officials", shorn from their patina of indipendence they voluntarily discarded. In fact, at least in the #EU, they might be a first: (/)
Read 8 tweets
"La baisse des taux d’intérêt offre une prime aux prédateurs d’entreprises."
Ceux qui peuvent s'endetter à des taux quasi nuls peuvent acquérir des entreprises performantes.
Ce cannibalisme financier est possible grâce aux politiques monétaires des banques centrales !
#BCE #FED
Quand les taux sont élevés les rentiers profitent du travail des autres en touchant des intérêts.
Quand les taux sont bas, des prédateurs ayant un accès facile à la dette achètent des entreprises et de l'immo pour profiter du travail des autres en touchant dividendes et loyers.
On se demande tout de même si les rentiers et les prédateurs ne sont pas les mêmes acteurs qui changent de masque selon les situations. Le vrai cancer de notre économie est ce concept de dette avec intérêts qui profitent à une minorité de parasites.
#MauriceAllais
Read 4 tweets
Le Président de la banque centrale américaine déclare que la mise en place du "#dollar numérique" est un projet de haute importance.
C'est une révolution qui va permettre aux citoyens américains de posséder dans des comptes de banque centrale des dollars émis par la #FED. Image
Le projet du "#dollar numérique" a plusieurs objectifs :
1/ rendre le système monétaire américain moins dépendant des banques commerciales (et de leur bonne santé financière)
2/ contrer la montée du #bitcoin
3/ permettre la mise en place éventuelle d'un revenu universel

#Fed
Read 4 tweets
(1/n) The #inflation data just keeps coming in hot. Today it was the #Markit #PMIs that showed input prices rising to a record...by a long shot.
(2/n) Earlier in the week it was the core PPI data, which came in at 2%, fully twice the #WallSt estimates.
(3/n) On Monday the #Fed's Empire State manufacturing survey showed prices paid at the highest level in 10 years.
Read 8 tweets
Citibank 1/6: Week Ahead:
#USD: #Fed speak includes Fed’s #Mester discussing US economy & Fed Chair #Powell speaking to Economic Club of NY; US CPI MoM – Citi: 0.3%, median: 0.3%, prior: 0.4%; CPI YoY – Citi: 1.5%, median: 1.5%, prior: 1.4%; CPI ex Food, Energy MoM – Citi: 0.1%,
Citibank 2/6: median: 0.2%, prior: 0.1%; CPI ex Food, Energy YoY – Citi: 1.5%, median: 1.5%, prior: 1.6% - Citi analysts expect a slightly firmer increase in core CPI, consistent with a slightly stronger rise in core PCE.

#USD: University of Michigan Sentiment – Citi: 79.4,
Citibank 3/6: median: 80.9, prior: 79.0; University of Michigan 1Yr Inflation Expectations – Citi: 3.0%, prior: 3.0% - sentiment survey should reflect increased optimism over recently falling virus cases while inflation expectations are likely to remain relatively more-elevated -
Read 6 tweets
St. Louis #FED araştırma sayfasında bir #DeFi makalesi.

Makale, Basel Üniversitesi'nde Blokzincir ve DeFi protokolleri üzerine çalışan Profesör Fabian Schar'a ait,

Ve oldukça iyimser bir makale.
research.stlouisfed.org/publications/r… Image
Makalede genel olarak DeFi'ın ne olduğu anlatılmış ve DeFi protokolleri tanıtılmış.

Ben daha çok fırsatlar ve riskler kısmına odaklandım.

Fırsatlar olarak; etkililik, şeffaflık, erişilebilirlik, birlikte çalışabilirlik sayılıyor.
Riskler olarak; akıllı sözleşme riskleri (hatalı, eksik kodlanması, düzenli çalışmaması),

Operasyonel riskler (Key sahibi adminlerin kötü niyetli kullanımı, keylerin üçüncü kişilerin eline geçmesi)

Bağımlılık (bir protokoldeki problemin diğer protokolleri etkileyebilmesi)
Read 8 tweets
1) Abro hilo. Ayer cerré mi primera operación en el mundo de las criptodivisas. Y como creo que están en un punto importante os dejo una reflexión de lo que opino. Que puede ser equivocado. O no. $BTC #Bitcoin
2) En primer me encanta la tecnología de las cripto. Creo que cambiará muchas industrias y la concepción de las cosas como hizo internet en su momento.
3) Clasifico a las #criptodivisas como un nuevo mercado financiero. Como las commodities, los metales, o los bonos. Debido a su naturaleza compleja, su poco histórico, su volatilidad y su riesgo para mí es como un bono basura elevado a la potencia que queráis.
Read 11 tweets
1. Reddit Rebellion e um pouco mais nesse fio. Tenho me debruçado no Reddit nesta semana, e desde sexta-feira a noite tenho gastado boas horas para analisar o que pode ser esse movimento. E tenho observado alguns pontos importantes que quero dividir com vocês
2. No seu início há alguns meses o movimento veio via #wallstreetbets e parecia somente uma rebeldia de um grupo de pessoas comuns, frustradas por não participarem da farra do dinheiro fácil impresso pelo #FED. Guarde isso: se existir um culpado de um crash no futuro, será o FED
3. A impressão desenfreada gerou tudo isso que vcs estão vendo, com uma nítida bolha de preços e um risco de inflação no futuro. Mas o assunto é #WSB e a Reddit Rebellion, e achei alguns pontos interessantes para considerar antes de achar que é só uma farra insana dos comuns
Read 18 tweets
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 01/25/2021 greeneracresvaluenetwork.wordpress.com/2021/01/25/dai…
Study: Folklore structure reveals how conspiracy theories emerge, fall apart | Ars Technica

arstechnica.com/science/2021/0…

#structure #ConspiracyTheories
The 1 Percent Rule: Why a Few People Get Most of the Rewards

jamesclear.com/the-1-percent-…

#rewards
Read 8 tweets
The biggest #bubble of our lives:
- Retail makes prices at the margin by buying OTM calls on sh1t #stonks
- #Tether prints USD backed with #bitcoin and loans & it’s fine
- “It’s a software co” EV maker is larger than almost all #software companies
- Digital images sell for >$300k
- People now make videos explaining they don’t need to work jobs because they buy stonks when they go up
- $ETH is undervalued on basis of cashflows for transactions that token holders have zero claim on
- #Ripple dumping on you is fine because they have $XRP fans in Japan
- #Restaurants & Small #businesses go bankrupt because of #lockdown and slow gov’t help but it’s fine
- $HTZ tries to do a cap increase out of chapter 11 because #robinhood
- A Company does reverse stock split and people brag about gains on per stock price basis on social media
Read 6 tweets
#Fed #FOMC statement largely unchanged

- NEW qualitative outcome-based forward guidance for QE program that links the horizon to max employment + price stability goals

- no change to composition or size of QE, but a floor of "at least" $120bn per month
The latest economic projections:

- Stronger near-term growth expectations
- Quite strong #GDP expectations for 2021
- Lower unemployment projections: below 4% in 2023
- #Inflation only a tad firmer: below 2% till 2023
- #Fed funds rate at zero through 2023
The #Fed's #GDP growth & #unemployment forecasts help explain why the Fed decided not to increase size or composition of QE.

They foresee rather strong growth in 2021 with a rapid decline in the unemployment. I wonder what their labor force participation rate assumptions are.
Read 5 tweets
The turn of the calendar year invites the temptation to prognosticate regarding the course of the year ahead for the #economy and for #markets, and not being immune to that impulse, here are our views on the “11 themes to consider as we look toward 2021:” bit.ly/386mb0r
In preview, one key theme is that 2021’s nominal #GDP growth is likely to surprise many skeptics with its strength. The sources of upside surprise can be found in: 1) the new #fiscal #stimulus combined with structural budget #deficits
And in 2) the @federalreserve’s ongoing asset purchases and 3) the impressive #economic momentum that is still broadly underestimated, as a post-election, and #pandemic-recovering world can catalyze 2020/21’s monetized #stimulus (more than 15% of GDP) into impressive NGDP growth.
Read 10 tweets
Earnings & the #Fed. I assumed the 1930s weren’t a good analog for 2020 b/c the fiscal/monetary policy response this year was greater & faster than ever, except perhaps the ‘40s. Policy response matters & in 2020 it blew away steps taken in ’08. How it started… (THREAD/1) Image
#Earnings & the #Fed. How it’s going… /2 Image
During volatile March, the 1987 crash was a better analog in the speed of the decline in stock prices & in the spike in the #VIX—VXO then. Also: the 1987 episode produced a full retest & pretty slow recovery. The analog worked in helping identify the market’s exhaustion point. /3
Read 7 tweets

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