Thread by @DrEricDing

I’m NERVOUS again- about young adults. Korea’s pop wide #COVID19 tests have revealed something scary: YOUNG PEOPLE are leading carriers. (Italy only tests the rather sick, biases to old people). If the socially active age20-29 truly carry 30% of all cases— that means trouble! 😨

2) Why is this important? Aren’t young people better able to handle this virus? That’s not the point. The issue is that young people are likely 10x more active and social than elderly and can infect 10x number of people (esp. if #COVID19 is mild and not noticed by young adults

3) So even if 80% cases are mild+moderate, which most young adults would be— imagine 80 young carriers vs 20 elderly carriers. The 20 elderly get hospitalized & reach limited others. But the 80 young mild carriers can infect maybe 800 others because they‘re aloof of their disease

4) Remember that a virus that kills fast flames out fast. But virus that has long incubation, infectious during asymptomatic periods, kills carriers slowly, and is mild for its key demographic of carriers (young people)... is the virus that will end up conquering the world 🌎.

5) ...And while conquering the 🌍, #COVID19 will make its mild young carriers bring it home to grandma, grandpa, or their friends who have diabetes, heart disease, stroke, high blood pressure, asthma, COPD, cystic fibrosis, kidney disease— kill them along the way: as conduit to💀

6) So next time someone says “Oh don’t worry, it’s mild for young people” — explain that complacency and ignorance of this virus’s true infectious reservoir of mild carriers — will actually spur on the outbreak more. #COVID19 has an epidemic doubling time of ~6 days. Do the math.

7) SK data illustrates young people maybe ~akin to “Typhoid Mary’s” (a maid in 1800’s who famously carried typhoid house to house infecting 51 people). While young adults cases aren’t asymptomatic, their social interactions likely may have ⬆️contagion impact on #COVID19 pandemic

8) Small erratum on Typhoid Mary - she was a cook not a maid. She was born I 1869, but infected New York families during 1900-1907 because she had an unusual innate immunity to Typhoid. But she was highly infectious to others. Good read: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mary_Mall…

9) Source of the South Korean data from latest Korean CDC: ncov.mohw.go.kr/upload/viewer/…

10) Translation of the Korean data table from above: Notice the glaring disparity between % confirmed (carriers) vs. death. But also the odd disparity between women and men in cases, and the disparity in %critical. Didn’t expect that gender disparity. 🤔