1/ Lots of people asking where $BTC bottoms. The short of it is I wouldn’t be surprised to see a retest of our 2018 lows near $3000. To explain:
2/ Historically, I’ve relied on the 200 week moving average (yellow line below) as our bear market bottom, but we we fell through that at ~$5500 last Thursday. 
3/ As someone recently reminded me, in a 2018 interview with @MelissaLeeCNBC I stated the real capitulation starts if we break the 200 week MA:
4/ We did not break the 200 week MA in 2018 / 2019 - it provided the perfect bounce for #bitcoin . But now that we broke and closed last week below $5500, what was once support becomes resistance.
5/ Fortunately, we’ve broken the 200 week MA in the past and recovered. Below is a photo of August - November 2015, where we struggled with it for 6 weeks before breaking above it (kicking off the next bull).
6/ For many reasons, 2020 is rougher than 2015. And let’s face it, the world has bigger problems than #bitcoin’s bottom at the moment.
7/ But the next really strong support I see is our last bottom (low $3000s). Futures were offered around there in size last Thursday, and if there’s more bad news for the world ahead (there is), $BTC is unlikely to be spared.
8/ Once the world has stabilized, I do expect $BTC $ETH and quality #cryptoassets to be some of the fastest recovering assets out there, but we’ve got a tunnel to navigate before then.
9/ Feel free to disagree and instead offer your own analysis. I’m a long-term investor, not an expert trader.
10/ Also looking for a marginal-cost of $BTC production analysis w/ current network stats & latest generation machines. What I described above are “technical bottoms,” the marginal cost of production is more of a “fundamental bottom” despite its flaws (eg, difficulty adjustment).
