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Ron Butler Profile picture
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Mar 22, 2020 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Update on Mortgage Skip a Payment

All I have is anecdotal information

Because that's all anyone has a few days in

Here's feedback from our clients

THERE'S ZERO CONSISTENCY

You can get a different answer from different people in the same bank's call center, same day

/2
2/ that should NOT be unexpected

This is a rapidly emerging situation and even just to get all bank employees on the same page won't be instantaneous

Branches SEEM to be more liberal than the call center in approvals, that said DON'T go to branches, not worth the risk

/3
3/ Investment property mortgage deferrals ARE being approved, again: case by case, no consistency

Common thread: if your day to day banking is at the same institution the mortgages reside approvals are faster

The bank can SEE that on your normal pay date NO pay deposited

4/
/4 If the lender insists on documents to prove unemployment, just COOPERATE, it's a pain in the ass but just stay on it

Here's what's clear: lender WILL do deferred payments for those with clear needs

So if you DON'T need immediate deferrals DON'T call now

Wait a week or two

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More from @ronmortgageguy

Ron Butler Profile picture
Jun 13, 2021
VC Peeps on Fintwit: HELP

Need to understand what looks like insanity

I understand there is a ton of dumb money thrown at Fintech these days but I just cannot fathom this transaction from the mortgage space

Take a look: a VC partnership buys 50% of a mortgage brokerage

2/
It's a mortgage brokerage that told a tale of being a breakthrough in digital mortgage applications that would magically attract borrowers

Which is ludicrously false, it's precisely the same digital app 5 other app vendor's offer

So $75M for 50% of a mortgage brokerage

3/
Again, the key lie is the digital nature of the brokerage because 100% of all clients are fed into a run of the mill Call Center for completion

This fairly new brokerage (3.5 years) has done very little in mortgage origination: less than $1B and is in no way famous

4/
Read 7 tweets
Ron Butler Profile picture
Mar 22, 2021
Silence From Governments on Run Away RE Prices

We have reached a WTF moment in the utter lack of interest at all levels of government on crazy RE price increases

Yeah, Tiff Macklem has muttered about exuberance but that's it

Look, I get Covid dominates everything

2/
Governments bend all their efforts towards vaccination and Covid care, I get it

But they do address other issues constantly, climate, inequality, LTC crisis then climate some more, all of which are worthy and important

But dead silence on housing? I mean nothing? Nada?

3/
Silence from the DoF, Silence from Doug, Silence from Tory

If you interviewed people in Ohio or France or Vietnam or (insert country here) and asked: "what do you think about RE prices in suburbs small towns and even rural communities going up 35% in 12 months?"

4/
Read 5 tweets
Ron Butler Profile picture
Mar 11, 2021
How Does This RE Madness in 🇨🇦 End?

And this ain't prediction, because prediction is a crap business and BTW I am not suggesting a crash or the bursting of a bubble, I am saying when do these batshit crazy prices increases end?

Because the wild increases will end

2/
And that's analysis not prediction

Either the government stops it with mortgage rule changes, or inflation pushes bond yields and in turn fixed rates to a point consumers step back or the market burns out on its own accord, enough people just quit looking

Do I know when?

3/
No I don't, maybe some time this year

Will prices reverse? Maybe, I simply know the ridiculous appreciation will stop

So what does that mean? Well what it historically means is some sort of price dip occurs even if only because people who bought have to sell

(Hello 2017)

3/
Read 5 tweets
Ron Butler Profile picture
Mar 9, 2021
Will Appraisals Hit a Wall?

There have been many comments wondering if Appraisals won't support some of the high RE prices we have been seeing

As I have posted before its not a big issue on a 45 or 60 day closing because there will be new sales supporting those prices

2/
The trouble starts when markets plateau or worst of all a market dip

In the late Spring of 2017 we had many Appraisal Disasters

RE prices in the GTA abruptly stop rising in April of 2017 after a 16 month run

House closings in May onward often had appraisal issues

3/
Problems continued throughout 2017 as new construction purchases bought in 2016 in York and Peel all had appraised values under purchase price

What will happen if this RE market cools off?

This time the run up has been in so many regions it will be a bigger issue

4/
Read 4 tweets
Ron Butler Profile picture
Feb 25, 2021
Strange Days Indeed in Mortgage World

I wrote last week about some Buyers giving up after endless wasted visits and crazy bidding war outcomes

But here comes fresh waves: condo buyers downtown (end users) who's big company managers have let them know they will come back

2/
to the bank towers in the late Fall

Couple of townhouses outside of Barrie different spots, expensive and FTHB

Or buying a house in Shelbourne, young, long time Downtown Couple

And here's the really worrying subtext of it

It's not FOMO

It's FWBF

Fear We'll Be F**KED

3/
Fear they will NEVER be able to buy a home of their own unless they act now

Because RE prices will grow to the Sky

A deep worry that a 2400 sq ft Detached in Whitby will start at $2.5M in 3 years

"That's absurb!!" you say, likely it is but how do they know that?

4/
Read 4 tweets
Ron Butler Profile picture
Feb 22, 2021
Canadian Real Estate Prices Leading Some to Craziness

I posted the other day about Buyer exhaustion at the stressful RE bidding wars that caused some folks to quit looking which conceptually could level off RE price trends

Many interesting responses but a few were wild

2/
Some thought house prices could go much higher

And a couple thought Toronto house prices were LOW and needed to catch up with Vancouver house prices

People are entitled to think whatever they want, that's the beauty of Canada

Here's a thought though:

3/
There is a fault line in RE in many regions

When you want to get into the market you hate the high prices

The day your offer is accepted you pray the prices keep running up

And it not like Equities, RE is an illiquid product, unlike stocks your kids sleep in the RE

4/
Read 4 tweets

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