Canadian Real Estate Prices Leading Some to Craziness
I posted the other day about Buyer exhaustion at the stressful RE bidding wars that caused some folks to quit looking which conceptually could level off RE price trends
Many interesting responses but a few were wild
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Some thought house prices could go much higher
And a couple thought Toronto house prices were LOW and needed to catch up with Vancouver house prices
People are entitled to think whatever they want, that's the beauty of Canada
Here's a thought though:
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There is a fault line in RE in many regions
When you want to get into the market you hate the high prices
The day your offer is accepted you pray the prices keep running up
And it not like Equities, RE is an illiquid product, unlike stocks your kids sleep in the RE
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The massive downturn in the Toronto condo market is documented everyday
The facts are just easy, Airbnb collapse, foreign University student collapse, downtown restaurant and hospitality worker renter exodus, flight from small living spaces
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It's a long list that radically reduces the number of renters and drives condo owners to seek freehold housing
Heck, we even have relentless addition of new condos from completing construction projects
The simple supply / demand math destroys value with no end in sight
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Well maybe a 2022 end in sight but 12 - 18 months of mayhem
Likely 25% - 35% down from peak condo pricing VERY dependent on product with the sub 500 sq ft product in real trouble
But will the contagion spread to Freehold: Towns, Semis and Detached?
Hey, I am not in the prediction business but I am in the observation business
Simple facts: downtown Toronto rents are falling steadily and if they continue to fall prices will errode
That's facts and math not prediction
And rents will fall
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This is simple stuff all Covid related
1) No foreign students, turns out this was big, rarely talked about and looks like they're gone till Fall 2021 2) No Airbnb, not just no tourists, no sporting events, weddings, proms huge list, Fall 2021 for return but slow even then
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3) Too many renters in Hospitality lost their jobs and moved back with parents or doubled with friends: Fall 2021 or never 4) For people with ongoing jobs, downtown offices empty, WFH but HATED cooped up experience, bought Towns or Detached likely NEVER back
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I have been Blocking folks lately over a general opposition to simple Covid measures
Anti Maskers, sorry, its the most minor inconvenience, you all put clothes on when you leave the house but the law in Ontario is that only shorts mandatory so?
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Really just Social Niceties and the mask is so easy, please just give anti masking a rest
If fun is made of the insanity of Trump holding huge rallies with unmasked participants who needs 25 replies about outside is fine and look at the BLM marches
Sweet Jaysus,
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Can't we just agree a political rally is not the same as desperately trying to put an end to senseless murder?
Or Strip Bars must stay open?
Or booze must be served till 2:00 AM or rights are being violated?