Strange Days Indeed in Mortgage World

I wrote last week about some Buyers giving up after endless wasted visits and crazy bidding war outcomes

But here comes fresh waves: condo buyers downtown (end users) who's big company managers have let them know they will come back

2/
to the bank towers in the late Fall

Couple of townhouses outside of Barrie different spots, expensive and FTHB

Or buying a house in Shelbourne, young, long time Downtown Couple

And here's the really worrying subtext of it

It's not FOMO

It's FWBF

Fear We'll Be F**KED

3/
Fear they will NEVER be able to buy a home of their own unless they act now

Because RE prices will grow to the Sky

A deep worry that a 2400 sq ft Detached in Whitby will start at $2.5M in 3 years

"That's absurb!!" you say, likely it is but how do they know that?

4/
Because their brother's house has doubled since he bought 5 years ago

So its FWBF

Afraid enough to spend as much on a house as they can qualify on a mortgage

Its not right

And our government should be ashamed we have reached this moment

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More from @ronmortgageguy

22 Feb
Canadian Real Estate Prices Leading Some to Craziness

I posted the other day about Buyer exhaustion at the stressful RE bidding wars that caused some folks to quit looking which conceptually could level off RE price trends

Many interesting responses but a few were wild

2/
Some thought house prices could go much higher

And a couple thought Toronto house prices were LOW and needed to catch up with Vancouver house prices

People are entitled to think whatever they want, that's the beauty of Canada

Here's a thought though:

3/
There is a fault line in RE in many regions

When you want to get into the market you hate the high prices

The day your offer is accepted you pray the prices keep running up

And it not like Equities, RE is an illiquid product, unlike stocks your kids sleep in the RE

4/
Read 4 tweets
29 Nov 20
The Truth About Credit Scores

Here's a subject that will get some comments / questions

I may not reply to all of them because this is NOT technical analysis this is conceptual stuff

Firstly and most important: Credit Scores are NOT built for consumers

NOT AT ALL

2/
The single most important thing to understand about Credit Scores and Credit Reports is that they are solely designed for Lenders

Sure, Landlords and Insurance companies use them but they're for credit granters

Another shocker: Good and Bad score; not how we look at it

3/
We think: In or Out

Either the score qualifies for lending or not

A 900 score is meaningless, once the score passes 780 who cares

Because Score isn't subjective, its just 680 is pass for normal lending 600 is not

Below 450 will disqualifies for anything but private

4/
Read 9 tweets
17 Oct 20
Will the Condo-19 Virus Spread

The massive downturn in the Toronto condo market is documented everyday

The facts are just easy, Airbnb collapse, foreign University student collapse, downtown restaurant and hospitality worker renter exodus, flight from small living spaces

2/
It's a long list that radically reduces the number of renters and drives condo owners to seek freehold housing

Heck, we even have relentless addition of new condos from completing construction projects

The simple supply / demand math destroys value with no end in sight

3/
Well maybe a 2022 end in sight but 12 - 18 months of mayhem

Likely 25% - 35% down from peak condo pricing VERY dependent on product with the sub 500 sq ft product in real trouble

But will the contagion spread to Freehold: Towns, Semis and Detached?

Big Question

4/
Read 8 tweets
5 Oct 20
What's With Toronto Condos?

Hey, I am not in the prediction business but I am in the observation business

Simple facts: downtown Toronto rents are falling steadily and if they continue to fall prices will errode

That's facts and math not prediction

And rents will fall

2/
This is simple stuff all Covid related

1) No foreign students, turns out this was big, rarely talked about and looks like they're gone till Fall 2021
2) No Airbnb, not just no tourists, no sporting events, weddings, proms huge list, Fall 2021 for return but slow even then

3/
3) Too many renters in Hospitality lost their jobs and moved back with parents or doubled with friends: Fall 2021 or never
4) For people with ongoing jobs, downtown offices empty, WFH but HATED cooped up experience, bought Towns or Detached likely NEVER back

4/
Read 8 tweets
27 Sep 20
Some Things Are Simple

I have been Blocking folks lately over a general opposition to simple Covid measures

Anti Maskers, sorry, its the most minor inconvenience, you all put clothes on when you leave the house but the law in Ontario is that only shorts mandatory so?

2/
Really just Social Niceties and the mask is so easy, please just give anti masking a rest

If fun is made of the insanity of Trump holding huge rallies with unmasked participants who needs 25 replies about outside is fine and look at the BLM marches

Sweet Jaysus,

3/
Can't we just agree a political rally is not the same as desperately trying to put an end to senseless murder?

Or Strip Bars must stay open?

Or booze must be served till 2:00 AM or rights are being violated?

Hosting 30 people in a home is required?

4/
Read 4 tweets
13 Sep 20
Canadian RE Bears: Just Wrong?

To paraphrase Kermit: its not easy being a RE Bear

Particularly in some big Canadian cities

Prediction is a crap business at the best of times

Economists build careers on being wrong alot or at least not right alot

The RE Bear thesis:

2/
Residential property prices in key cities: Vancouver, Toronto and their surrounding areas are over inflated and will fall dramatically

Its not hard to find general agreement home prices are too high, most folks outside the RE industry and quite a few insiders will say it

3/
"Prices are crazy!" "Who would pay that?" "Wow, that little dump got that much!"

That's common

People inside the RE industry will say: "World Class!" "No Supply!" "Immigration blah, blah"

And there are elements of truth in those comments

Canada is a great country

4/
Read 8 tweets

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