The "herd immunity" fiasco in UK policy making still matters in an immediate sense, because those involved it are still at the heart of the government response. So needs to be talked about now. Stress I have nothing personal against anyone and will not mention individuals. 1/12
The scientists involved just did not succeed in wrapping their heads around how serious a pathogen COVID-19 is and how it could not be business as usual any more. This is natural normal human psychology. Its really hard to break this news to a government or a country. 2/12
The herd immunity policy that resulted is a kind of collective delusion. That it could not work is obvious simply based on the brute facts on the ground in Wuhan. Somehow, sophisticated mathematical models were nevertheless bent towards the conclusion it could. 3/12
The delusion only became obvious when the team tried to fit the same models to data from Bergamo and the issues were in multiple respects closer to home. However, recognizing a delusion is far from being a cure for it. You can still see its remnants in govt policy. 4/12
For example, there was a piece in the telegraph claiming that up to 23 million people in UK have already been infected. This seems way out of the plausible ballpark to me but it is still part of govt planning. telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/2… 5/12
Also Hancock recently was talking enthusiastically about doing a serosurvey. this would be fascinating and useful scientifically but developing enough capacity to detect currently infected individuals has to take priority and we are far from being there with that. 6/12
Another important aspect of this is communication to the public. I heard researchers from @LSHTM on channel 4 news saying that the scientific advice that it was OK to go to the Cheltenham Festival. This made me feel actually sick at the time. 7/12
To the extent that the same individuals are still giving scientific advice to the public, it undermines the effectiveness of the advice. Also, I feel that the advice given by govt still has a half-hearted tone to it. Messaging is really critical here. 8/12
Practical suggestions: Any scientist who has *ever* said that going to Cheltenham Festival was OK according to the science, or who has advocated a herd immunity policy to the govt should treat themselves as if they have been infected by a delusion. 9/12
Even if they think they have been cured, it may not be complete. They need to self isolate themselves intellectually and pause from taking part in the scientific discourse or advising the government. They should prepare mentally to reenter the debate in the aftermath. 10/12
Which they are absolutely entitled to do. But they got it wrong on a deadly serious matter. They need to pause and reflect before trying to give advice again. 11/12
Renudge the influencers I nudged in my original UK govt policy twitter thread.
https://twitter.com/DanielFalush/status/123905145299322880712/12
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