OK, bugger the weekend off, here is another politely angry thread on UK policy and how it *still* does not have the right urgency to it. 1/15
The very recent Imperial paper predicted as few as 5700 deaths, with a peak of 260 in one day. There were around 260 deaths *yesterday* and the numbers are still growing by around 30% a day. 2/15
While the epidemic is still growing exponentially, there is no responsible way to predict a maximum number of deaths except to assume that everyone is going to get infected. That would imply on the order of a million deaths, given the finite supply of ventilators and medics. 3/15
Assuming the lockdown will be as effective as in Wuhan is far too over-optimistic, given that no European country has yet shown reliable indication of getting disease numbers under control. 4/15
Furthermore, 1 week into the Wuhan lockdown, the chinese authorities started to isolate infected individuals in sports halls etc. This measure was shown to be critical in keeping infection numbers down. Infected people in the community inevitably pass it on to others 5/15
UK needs to move to large scale testing and isolation ASAP. but, despite the herd immunity fiasco we STILL get complacency and exceptionalism broadcast from the platforms of government, as in this clip. 6/15
The UK might have some exceptional scientists but its clear that it has neglected the basics, e.g. in terms of protective equipment and other things. There is no room for complacency about anything. Also neglected basics about educating people about how not to get infected. 7/15
Actually this is a matter of teaching the whole population that not avoiding getting infected is about as sensible as sticking your fingers in electricity sockets or running in front of cars but somehow its been made more complicated than that. 8/15
There is also a substantial denialist fringe within the mainstream UK media, for example accusing the Imperial group of scaremongering (!!!!). telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/2… This really matters, it makes basic public health education much harder to deliver effectively. 9/15
Often the justification is a supposed trade of between economics and health. It is just false. It is not possible to resume normal economic life until transmission is brought firmly under control. Strong suppression is the economists answer to what has to happen now, too.10/15
If we are going to use a war analogy, these guys are a 5th column, fighting for the spread of the virus. Im not really sure what their motivations are; Im totally sure they are not being deliberately treasonous, but unfortunately it does not matter. The effect is the same. 11/15
Britain is still an intellectual leader and unfortunately a lot of countries are listening to what is being said in UK and taking false comfort from it. As an expat Englishman its painful to witness and will do long run damage to the countries' reputation. 12/15
China brought the epidemic under control because President Xi saw it as an existential threat to the communist party and its legitimacy to rule. If the party could not keep the people safe, it had no right to exist. As a result, they mobilized everything, top to bottom. 13/15
Actually this is deeply rooted in history. The regime killed a sizeable fraction of its citizens during the great leap forward. Xi realized that something similar could not be allowed to happen again. 14/15
There is no inevitability to any of this, good leadership is good leadership, whatever motivates it. Most people should by now have seen the irony of Boris pre-ordaining himself as Churchill. Churchill saw the true nature of the enemy first , not last. END. 15/15.
Stay stafe and please retweet. 16/15.
