Here is another way to understand how the scientists advising the UK government got their advice so wrong. All scientists are careful to say that COVID-19 is not like the flu, both because it is much deadlier and because noone has pre-existing immunity. 1/6
However the UK scientists basically tried to apply a flu-like model, emphasizing seasonality, immunity etc. Biologically, it is the most similar virus that kills many people. However, depending on circumstances, COVID-19 is approx 30 times more deadly than the flu, 2/6.
Ebola is approx 30 times more deadly than COVID-19. Unless civilization breaks down it will never directly kill many people. The reason is it is not very cryptic. As long as you pay attention and have equipment, you can stamp it out. 3/6
However ebola has the property that if it is around, you have to drop everything else and deal with it. That would include COVID-19 incidentally. If you have both in the same region you should largely ignore COVID-19 until ebola is eradicated. 4/6
What COVID-19 has in common with ebola is that it can be highly transmissible in the right circumstances and can also overwhelm health care systems and become unmanageable. COVID-19 also has one key trick that ebola does not , which is cryptic transmission. 5/6
The UK scientists advising the government were mostly flu scientists and tried to use a flu like model, letting the virus run through the population. Its just not acceptable with COVID-19 because it is too deadly. Ebola is a better model; it should never be appeased 6/6.
