As promised, Round 2 of @CNASdc’s remote wargame looking at #airpower in the context of a China-Taiwan warfight, but first a quick recap of yesterday’s events.
@mack0352 @edmcgrady @SusannaVBlume @evanbmontgomery @JessieDietz5
@mack0352 @edmcgrady @SusannaVBlume @evanbmontgomery @JessieDietz5
The purpose of this game is to develop new ways of fighting which will be necessary to deter and compete with China long term, as former Deputy Secretary of Defense Bob Work and I describe here: cnas.org/publications/v…
Developing a New American Way of War and associated capabilities is just the defense portion of a whole-of-nation competition with China that will shape U.S. foreign policy in the 21st century.
@CNASdc has a host of recommendations for how to better compete with China here: cnas.org/publications/r…
@elyratner @dankliman @LorenRaeDeJ @paul_scharre @MartijnRasser @karaafrederick @RosenbergEliz @DEricSayers @fitt_joshua @RushDoshi @afeng79 @megan_lamberth @kristinejlee27
@elyratner @dankliman @LorenRaeDeJ @paul_scharre @MartijnRasser @karaafrederick @RosenbergEliz @DEricSayers @fitt_joshua @RushDoshi @afeng79 @megan_lamberth @kristinejlee27
…Back to the game. The scenario posits that in 2030 the PRC attempts to invade Taiwan after cross-strait relations deteriorate badly. At @CNASdc, we’ve examined a similar scenario before: cnas.org/publications/v…
Just to reiterate, this scenario and the actions that occur within the game are purely notional and the product of CNAS. The data in this game are all unclassified and based on open-source information.
Yesterday, the teams took two moves. The first move allowed them to prepare and posture themselves for war.
Both teams focused on gaining information superiority through space, cyber, ISR, electronic warfare, and camouflage, concealment, and deception. Both sides also used information operations to degrade each other’s political cohesion.
Blue moved surface vessels out of the densest missile threat ranges and used deception to gain freedom of maneuver. They pushed undersea assets forward and tracked Red subs. Blue dispersed its airpower, conducted defensive CAPS, and put the rest of its aircraft on strip alert.
Red flushed subs and sortied “civil ships” into the Strait to degrade Blue’s ISR picture. They dispersed bombers & fighters, shadowed Blue CSGs and SAGs with UAS, & sent bombers on a demonstration flight to Alaska. + They began shuffling air defense assets to counter Blue SEAD.
Move 2 was the opening combat round, and it was quite a donnybrook. Jamming and dazzling in space, EW, and cyberattacks quickly degraded both sides’ ISR and comms, but not enough to prevent attacks on large fixed targets and high-signature surface vessels.
Blue and Taiwanese forces thwarted Red’s initial amphibious assault and imposed heavy attrition on Red’s amphibious lift. However, Red airborne forces have seized and airfield in the south and Red’s air superiority is helping them hold out vs. Taiwan’s forces.
Blue also cleared Red surface and air forces from the South China Sea, but at the cost of a squadron of 5th gen aircraft, an aircraft carrier, and two large-deck amphibs lost to hypersonic attacks.
Surprisingly, the loss of three major surface vessels wasn’t the worst news of the day for Blue. Red launched a long-range H-20 bomber attack on Hawaii and caused heavy damage and casualties, including the INDOPACOM commander and large numbers of staff.
Blue had more success in the undersea domain: Red is losing submarines and surface vessels at a rapid pace. Blue’s cyberattacks have also badly degraded Red’s “great firewall” and Beidou navigation system.
This was a brutal and bloody (notional) fight, but not a surprising outcome in combat between great-powers armed with full complements of weapons. Both teams have spent the morning licking their wounds and planning counterattacks. Round 3 is up after lunch. Watch this space.
