Now for Round Three of @CNASdc’s wargame looking at #airpower in the context of a China-Taiwan warfight in 2030.
@mack0352 @edmcgrady @Molly_Parrish @JessieDietz5 @SusannaVBlume
@mack0352 @edmcgrady @Molly_Parrish @JessieDietz5 @SusannaVBlume
See the recap of Round Two here:
Just to reiterate, this scenario and all actions taken within the game are notional.
Previous moves saw the Blue (U.S.) and Red (PRC) teams posturing for combat, then battling furiously for information and air superiority while Red and Taiwanese forces were fighting a heated battle on Taiwan.
Both sides have suffered grievous losses, and the gravity of fight has begun drawing other states such as Japan, South Korea, Singapore, and Australia into the conflict.
The battle for information superiority has escalated. Blue launched a constellation of mini satellites into LEO to reconstitute some ISR and comms capability.
In response, Red began kinetic attacks in space. The potential for long-term degradation of LEO has every spacefaring nation deeply worried. @ToddHarrisonDC
U.S. aircraft have achieved tremendous kill: loss ratios, but the sheer number of PLAAF platforms has helped Red offset losses + maintain superiority over Taiwan. Blue is accelerating shifts of forces from elsewhere to replenish its numbers.
Surface vessels on both sides remain extremely vulnerable to air, missile, and undersea attack. Even with space-based ISR degraded, it’s difficult to hide large surface vessels from all the various systems hunting them.
The undersea domain remains an area of strength for Blue, with U.S. subs and UUVs of different sizes doing heavy damage to Red ships, while U.S. and Japanese MPA provide a significant advantage in open-ocean ASW against Red subs.
Red’s open-ocean undersea picture, meanwhile: gph.is/1Ldgifv
A vicious battle rages on Taiwan. Red has reinforced its airborne forces with airmobile + marine brigades. Red also moved cruise missile + air defense batteries to the Penghus. Red airpower is pounding Taiwanese forces, but Red’s advances are limited without armor + artillery.
Red is struggling to get heavier forces ashore because Blue and Taiwanese forces have hammered Red’s maritime lift capacity and denied use of ports on Taiwan.
Now, both sides are reaching into their reserves to reconstitute for another round. Each side is hoping to gain a clear and sustainable advantage that will convince their opponent to seek an offramp.
Stay tuned this afternoon for Round 4 and our final takeaways from two days of wargaming.
