Evolving insights into increasing cases over time, globally. Very few reported cases in Africa over time. #covidmarathon
Total tests performed per million people. UAE tops the charts. South Korea second. #covidmarathon
The amplification phase can be varied WRT the doubling time. Containment is therefore VERY important. Delay the upsurge of patients who would require ICU. Active case finding is paramount --> isolate these cases. #covidmarathon
#COVIDmarathon Resource requirements vs Severity of disease. What does this mean for countries preparing for the surge? These disease severities are best estimates.
#covidmarathon What does getting ready mean? Some countries are more used to ID outbreaks. Screening and triage at ALL access points of healthcare system. We need to use a standardised scoring system to get an idea of disease severity. The community also needs EDUCATED.
A delay in Public Health measures = higher serious case loads. Surge actions need to be at the right time. 3 S's --> Structure, Staff, Supply... #covidmarathon
We need to prioritise evidence based care, as best we can, during this period of great uncertainty... let's look at the clinical characteristics that we do know. Research is of course, underway. Pregnant women and children tend to have milder disease burden. #covidmarathon
No effective antivirals as of yet. But we need to look at this further. Unwarranted use could seriously impact global supply chains etc. #covidmarathon
There are over 300 trials registered about #COVID19 - #covidmarathon - much more ongoing @Lennie333 - we need to try and contribute.
How can we use innovation to improve supply chain models? We need to think of our equipment and resources. @WHO and @UN are looking at and working on this right now. Also thinking about LEDCs. #covidmarathon
Failure to prepare is preparing for failure... #covidmarathon
Italian population older than Chinese population. Case-Fatality-Rate is similar up to 70yo amongst both populations. Testing numbers (denominators) are also different. #COVIDmarathon
Pre-crisis bed capacity in Lombardy, Italy was 750 beds.... now it's 1650.. in this one region alone. #COVIDmarathon The network was completely reorganised.
What does the data from Italy say? Here are the presentation characteristic %s. We also have seen: 81% MILD disease, 14% SEVERE disease, 5% CRITICAL disease. #covidmarathon
Massive proportion of MEN vs women are affected. The greatest number of patients are >61 years of age - but it is definitely seen in younger cohorts too. #covid19#covidmarathon
Data analysis of the Italian Networks. Comorbidities and Respiratory Support Characteristics #COVIDmarathon#COVID19
Varied and evolving statistics since January 2020 - for ICU, Mortality and Death #covidmarathon
Quality of data is difficult in an evolving picture. Mortality does NOT describe the complexity of the clinical picture. Kaplan Meier Analysis may prove more useful. #covid19#covidmarathon
"Anecdotally, in clinical practice >30% of patients are getting steroids" - the evolving clinical picture is very complex. It is likely that pharmacotherapy's role is limited at best. #COVID19#COVIDmarathon
Learning from SARS and MERS. This our 3rd Coronavirus outbreak in the past 2 decades. The virus lineages are similar. SARS, MERS and COVID19 are related. #covidmarathon#covid19
Currently, there is inter-country variability in severity: #covidmarathon
Comparing #COVID19, MERS and SARS - all share ARDS as a main feature. The mortality is quite similar in MERS v COVID19 - but infectiousness is also different... Also the pathology.... #covidmarathon
Evidence isn't looking good for steroid use in #COVID19 (but SSC has loose recommendations for their use) more evidence awaited. #covidmarathon
Confounding studies have looked at antivirals in older coronaviruses: #covid19#covidmarathon
Median time from symptom onset to enrolment was late in this study. ?is there a role for antivirals at an earlier stage?
18% of MERS patients had bacterial co-infection and 5% viral co-infection. SARS was quite similar. Consider abx in your patients. #covid19#covidmarathon
Can we learn from MERS? EARLY suspicion and high IPC precautions = major target for us. Take it seriously from the beginning. Proper triage, proper places for patients to be. STRICT infection control. Low thresholds of suspicion. Pre-test probability is VERY HIGH. #covidmarathon
For every one person who has #COVID19 - they might infect 3 people... this gives an exponential spread. To stop this - we need to drive the R0 down as low as possible. @Lennie333
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What were the most impactful non-COVID papers over the past 2 years? Let's delve in and take a look. #SOA21
Finally an opportunity to not talk about COVID! #SOA21
TOMAHAWK - immediate vs delayed/selective angio. 3 years to conduct the trial in 31 ICUs. 554 patients. 'Worse' survival in immediate angiograph? Not SS, but close... #SOA21
We've looked at bats for a long time.... #SOA21 They have strong interferon responses, but not strong inflammation....
So what happens instead? #SOA21 They will tolerate high levels of viraemia with little symptoms. Bats are old... 65million years ago - they appeared at the end of the dinosaurs! They are far longer lived that other mammals. Senescence is late - more towards end of life.
Organophosphate poisoning, toxicology, dengue, snake bites and malaria.... sure what could go wrong? #SOA21@ICS_updates Drs. Chacko, Yacoub, Bhaumik and Dondorp tell us more.... 🧵👇😘
Biomarker guided abx treatments in sepsis. We catch up with Drs/Profs: Paul Dark, Stacy Todd, Enitan Carrol, Jonathan Sandoe and Matthew Stevenson on this large area of research @ICS_updates#SOA21
So, do biomarkers have any utility in guiding abx use in sepsis? We can measure, usually, these ones fairly easily: #SOA21
In around 2014, commissioned review in PCT. Seemed to suggest a shorter duration in abx use when PCT used.... tenuous data though. #SOA21 Low quality. Little evidence from UK... how does this fit into NHS practice in the realms of stewardship?
There's been a lot that's gone on over the past few years that's exposed the well known 'darker' side of social media. Traditional paradigms of knowledge dissemination have changed (if not disappeared). Much higher tech-savy population. #SOA21
This has democratised the discussion space to an extent. It allows for *anybody* (lit. anybody) to get involved. #SOA21
Is COVID-19 hyperinflammation, or a cytokine storm in a teacup? @DrPujaMehta1 's fab talk from #SOA21 today!
Main Q = "Hyperinflation contributing to worse outcomes for some patients with COVID-19" - clinical similarities to sHLH seen. Viruses are the most common trigger of sHLH. Early reports from China suggested cytokine profile was similar to sHLH in terms of COVID severity. #SOA21
We now know some things work and some things don't.... in certain populations. #SOA21