With one of the largest deflationary waves in modern history underway, the chances of negative CPI is very high. That might mean the Fed will do the unthinkable in the coming months and go to negative rates or if not, monetary conditions will be tightening into a crisis 1/
When I look at Fed Fund, it suggests that trend FF rates could go as low as -2%. 
And 10 year bonds would get to negative rates too...
I don't see how they can steepen the curve and also ease economic conditions without it. It feels like its a matter of time. Trust me, -0.5% bond yields could look like the only way not to destroy capital faster, in due course. 0.5% cost of security maybe isn't so bad? Cheap put.
Clearly, the broader ramification of rational actions by market players driving bond yields lower, is very bad. It will nuke the pension system and the value of money. Its not necessarily bad for the dollar, yet, as the other CB's will be even more actively destroying their money
Dollars, Gold and Bitcoin make the most sense. Later, much later, just gold and bitcoin.
This is an 18 month to 36 month view. Expect many counter-trend moves along the way. We will have to navigate those.
Good luck.
This is an 18 month to 36 month view. Expect many counter-trend moves along the way. We will have to navigate those.
Good luck.
