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Now, this is an interesting chart. Bitcoin and the SPX are currently extremely correlated as liquidation pressure turns all assets into risk assets. This correlation would last forever but it shows that people are using $BTC for liquidity. It is likely the puking of risk assets
but hedge funds, family offices and anyone buying bitcoin on margin. Once this phase of the markets is over (which I think comes in the next couple of weeks or so), it should stabilise and begin its rise again, free of excessive longs with just HODLR's remaining in, as ever.
I slowly continue to add to my position and hope for cheaper prices. The lower the prices, the more outstanding the risk reward becomes over the next few years.

#Bitcoin $BTC
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Raoul Pal
@RaoulGMI
With one of the largest deflationary waves in modern history underway, the chances of negative CPI is very high. That might mean the Fed will do the unthinkable in the coming months and go to negative rates or if not, monetary conditions will be tightening into a crisis 1/
When I look at Fed Fund, it suggests that trend FF rates could go as low as -2%.
And 10 year bonds would get to negative rates too...
Read 6 tweets
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Raoul Pal
@RaoulGMI
We have gone into 24/7 total curfew in Cayman for the next three days. The gov and medical services have been very ahead of the curve, which has been amazing. The people too are amazing as they understand the communal sacrifice required from dealing with devastating hurricanes.
We should be able to map out the cases, find the clusters and control, over the next three weeks or so and then we can begin the very, very slow return. Im sure we will remain mainly/partially closed to visitors for a long while and it will leave a big scar on the economy.
Hurricane Ivan put the entire island underwater, closed almost every business for 6 months and destroyed all the houses and buildings. Cayman came back better and stronger afterwards. Soon come, as they say here...
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Raoul Pal
@RaoulGMI
Again, I honestly am trying to answer as many of your questions as I can, but it has become somewhat impossible.

And without trying to sound like a salesman, please just sign up for @realvision. We are working flat out to get you as much information as humanly possible.
Use it as your trusted source. You need one.

We built RV for this. You need to use it and not hope for a random stranger to answer your questions on Twitter. We have ALL the exports you'll ever need explaining as much as they can.
Real Vision is better than me.

It is the greatest hive mind of financial intelligence ever assembled.
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Dan Hedl
@danheld
1/ I’ve signed up with Alcor, a cryopreservation company. As part of that, I get a quarterly magazine. The last one was a profile of Hal Finney.

It offers an incredible new view into his personal life, ideals, and perpetual optimism, even against certain death.

A must read👇
2/ Everything from here is a copy paste from the article:

Though widely known for his pioneering professional achievements across cyberspace and tech circles, Hal’s daily life paints a much more nuanced portrait. He was a devoted husband, father, accomplished Renaissance man.
3/ SoCal Roots

Harold Thomas Finney was born in the spring of 56' in the small town of Coalinga, California. Hal’s father… was a long time employee of Union Oil of California… which supported the family’s relocation to a number of different places throughout his lifetime.
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Ted Rogers
@tedmrogers
1/ The gap between the "rich" and the 'non-rich' has nothing to do with taxes and everything to do with monetary policy. This is critical to understand, especially with presidential candidates calling for socialist policies in the U.S.
#bitcoin
2/ In the past 10 yrs the Fed has flooded the market with dollars. The amount of US dollars in circulation has doubled in the past decade. DOUBLED.
3/ The idea is to spur economic activity and, yes, banks loan some money to businesses that invest in growth, job creation, etc

But there is limited supply of good businesses needing loans. Much of the money ends up invested in asset classes like real estate, equities, PE/VC etc
Read 17 tweets
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CryptoKea
@CryptoKea
26/ Bitcoin´s price is very much on track to resemble the first major correction of 2017´s bull market in terms of Mayer Multiples (see full thread for details & targets). Even if we go all the way down to the bottom of the bullish channel, this is still considered a bull market.
For some reason, I cannot attach this post to the prior thread. Please find it here for all the details:
27/ With yesterday´s close, my main targets got hit:

✅Rejection and reversal at 2.5x the 200 DMA (predicted on 24 June with BTC at 11k, hit on 26 June at 12,8k on daily close).

✅Break down to 1.7x the 200 DMA (predicted on 3 July with BTC at 11.9k, hit on 16 July at 9,5k).
Read 38 tweets
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Chris Burniske
@cburniske
1/ At the start of 2019 #bitcoin’s price action looked like it could mirror 2015, but has since switched to feel more like 2016.

As a foreshadowing, below is a graph showing the correlation between $BTC’s price and China's yuan ($CNY) in 2016.

Article: washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2…
2/ It was remarkable to watch $BTC & $CNY dance in 2016.

Sometimes a #bitcoin rally preceded a CNY devaluation, as shown in green ovals below (presumably Chinese insiders stockpiling BTC before PBOC's action)

Other times bitcoin would show sustained strength post yuan weakness
3/ Turning to what this can teach us about 2019, the first thing to recognize is #bitcoin's rally from ~$3K to now ~$9K has not been *majority* driven by crypto's fundamentals (not endogenous).
Read 15 tweets
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NebraskanGooner
@nebraskangooner
#bitcoin

Levels.
#bitcoin

Still stuck in this range.

Tried to break out but rejected right at the top.

The longer it's stuck in this zone the more likely it will test the bottom.
#bitcoin

Standard S/R flip.
Read 5 tweets

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