This is well said, so let me tell you why I fear that many MENA dictatorships are not prepared and are either underreporting or misreporting their figures
Reason 1: Most MENA regimes do not rank high globally when it comes to readiness to tackle a pandemic. This is from the 2019 Global Health Security Index ghsindex.org 
(Yes the US was ranked near the most prepared; what's happening there is a result of incompetence rather than a limited capacity or lack of expertise). If you look at capacity alone you see why the pandemic can be a real problem in the MENA.
Reason 2: My team's observation of the disinformation output of certain key MENA governments to the pandemic, showing that until recently many saw it as an opportunity and seemed not to appreciate its severity. We're considering putting together a report on this.
Reason 3: The numbers. Iran is a well-known regional hotspot, and yet in several countries where the Iranian regime has influence (Syria, Lebanon, Iraq) flights from/to Iran were not suspended until well into pandemic territory
Iran itself refused to suspend flights to China because it didn't want to damage its relationship with its regime. The breathtaking extent of this is detailed in this FP article (March 30). foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/30/mah…
Elsewhere, consider that on March 2nd, Egypt's minister of health visited China in person, carrying a "gift" from Sisi consisting of medical supplies and protective equipment. I'd think a country that realizes the severity of what might hit it won't be gifting PPEs to China.
Still on the numbers. Dubai is a major travel hub (44 million arrived or transited through its airport in 2019). The @WHO declared a pandemic on March 11th. This tweet is from March 15h, the airport was still open.
(The UAE suspended all flights three days later, on March 18th).
Still on the numbers. The UAE, Egypt, Turkey, and Morocco are all major tourism destinations. Yearly tourist arrivals (2018 figures):
- Turkey: 40 million
- UAE: 21 million
- Morocco: 12 million
- Egypt: 12 million
- Turkey: 40 million
- UAE: 21 million
- Morocco: 12 million
- Egypt: 12 million
Morocco suspended flights 4 days after the WHO declared a pandemic
Egypt suspended flights 5 days after the WHO declared a pandemic
The UAE suspended flights 7 days after the WHO declared a pandemic
Turkey suspended flights 16 days after the WHO declared a pandemic
Egypt suspended flights 5 days after the WHO declared a pandemic
The UAE suspended flights 7 days after the WHO declared a pandemic
Turkey suspended flights 16 days after the WHO declared a pandemic
Now let me compare to Israel:
- Suspended flights 1 day *before* WHO declared a pandemic
- Receives only 4 million visitors a year (cmp to the countries above)
- Ranked much higher on readiness (report above)
- Has 7500 confirmed cases
- Suspended flights 1 day *before* WHO declared a pandemic
- Receives only 4 million visitors a year (cmp to the countries above)
- Ranked much higher on readiness (report above)
- Has 7500 confirmed cases
Meanwhile Morocco, Egypt, and the UAE have a combined total of under 3500 confirmed cases, less than half that of a state with more medical capacity, less tourist arrivals and less busy airports. I hope they are really that lucky, but color me skeptical.
Reason 4: (yes there's more) - loads of anecdotal reports that we must rely upon in the absence of a free press. Pictures of mass gatherings across the region - protests (yes) in Lebanon, packed public transport in Egypt, and this from Syria
I really do hope that my beloved native MENA region is spared the worst of this pandemic, but I'm really terrified of what might happen. These aren't governments well known for transparency, competence, or a respect for the sanctity of human life.
We'll remain watchful - and skeptical.
