Thread by @jburnmurdoch

NEW: Sat 4 April update of coronavirus trajectories

Daily new deaths:
• US about to go clear of Spain for most daily deaths of any country in the world
• UK on steeper trajectory than Italy, which was seen as hardest-hit country worldwide

Live charts: ft.com/coronavirus-la…

How does that look cumulatively?
• US death toll slope shows no signs of flattening; about to shoot straight past Italy, which was slowing by this stage
• US will likely have highest total death toll globally within a week

All charts: ft.com/coronavirus-la…

Now daily new cases:
• US arcing up into the tens of thousands of confirmed cases per day; still no nationwide lockdown and Americans continue to travel
• France & Germany possibly joining Italy and Spain in seeing new cases plateau if not dip

And cases in cumulative form:
• US stretching my chart limits again; will extend y-axis to 500k tomorrow
• Australia a rare example of an Anglophone country on a gentle trajectory
• Brazil tracking UK ⚠️

Now subnational region daily deaths:
• New Jersey heading toward NY as the US’ urban north-east emerges as the new global epicentre
• In the UK, London and the Midlands now both on more daily deaths than Wuhan recorded at same stage

Subnational death tolls cumulatively:
• Like the US at large, NY is really in uncharted territory here, death toll marching into the thousands
• New Jersey ramping up onto Lombardy’s trajectory. More than 8,000 died there.

All charts: ft.com/coronavirus-la…

Our newest chart: small multiples of daily deaths in subnational regions (same country colours as in national charts):
• California added. Following a similar path to Veneto in Italy
• London’s death toll rising faster than Wuhan’s did
• Bavaria Germany’s hardest-hit region

Small multiples for daily new deaths:
• Belgium tracking Italy ⚠️
• Portugal may be coming down off its steep path
• Switzerland & Sweden tracking China ⚠️

All charts: ft.com/coronavirus-la…

Finally, small multiples for daily cases:
• Sweden v Norway is instructive. Norway locked down & new cases are falling, Sweden didn’t & each day brings more new infections
• Japan’s outbreak continues

Live versions of all charts here: ft.com/coronavirus-la…

Things to note:
• The data is noisy & subject to all sorts of tricky caveats
• e.g most countries reporting deaths in hospital. Many deaths occur in nursing homes etc; we hope to add these in future
• Point being: watch for general trends. Focus on slopes, not specific numbers

Here’s a video where I explain why we’re using log scales, showing absolute numbers instead of per capita, and much more:

https://twitter.com/janinegibson/status/1244519429825802240

And a chart showing why we're using absolute numbers rather than population-adjusted rates:

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1244380095164420101

Analysis of Chinese movie box office revenues shows that lockdowns won’t be lifted overnight, and life may take many months to return to normal.

Restrictions will be released bit by bit, only to be reinstated wholly or in part as infections pick up again

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1246135176461254657

And @google data shows that people in the US are still out and about much more than their counterparts in several European countries:

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1246123616040779776

Please email [e-mail] with feedback, requests & subnational data.

All of these are invaluable, and we continue to incorporate your suggestions and data every day.

We’ll keep getting back to as many people as possible.

Enjoy your socially-distant weekends, folks!

And tonight's post-chart food: homemade beef dumplings