Thread by @jburnmurdoch

NEW: Mon 6 April update of coronavirus trajectories

Daily new deaths:
• US has averaged 1,000 deaths per day over the last week
• Daily deaths in Italy & Spain peaked around 23-24 days after lockdown
• Suggests UK could peak in 7-10 days

Live charts: ft.com/coronavirus-la…

But peak deaths absolutely doesn’t mean restrictions then lift.

Peak deaths means restrictions are working.

China passed peak deaths months ago, but the roads in Wuhan are still silent as restrictions remain in place.

Follow our lockdown tracker: ft.com/content/0c1375…

Back to the mortality data, let’s look at cumulative deaths:
• US death toll has passed Italy’s
• Question is will its curve now taper off like Italy’s or keep rising?
• Australia’s death toll far below other Anglophone countries

All charts: ft.com/coronavirus-la…

Now daily new cases:
• A chain of outbreaks in many states & cities mean US still gets more new cases every day than day before; still no nationwide lockdown
• In France, Italy & Spain new cases plateau or dip ~18 days after lockdown
• Suggests peak UK daily cases in 2-4 days

Cases in cumulative form:
• US encroaching on another new y-axis ceiling...
• Australia and Ireland = Anglophone countries on flatter curves
• India’s curve still noisy = look for trends, not daily bumps

Now subnational region daily deaths:
• NY recording 100s of deaths per day; more than Lombardy recorded at its peak, but in 3 fewer weeks, and still rising 📈
• Daily deaths in London still rising; one of the world’s urban covid epicentres

All charts: ft.com/coronavirus-la…

Subnational death tolls cumulatively:
• NY on a much steeper curve than Lombardy at the same stage; almost certain to end with the world’s highest confirmed subnational death toll
• Paris & London on similar curves, but Paris recorded many more deaths early on

Now small multiples of daily deaths in subnational regions:
• Added lines for England, Scotland & Wales (N.Ireland to come). England by far the steepest, followed by Scotland
• Now showing 7 US states, more to come
• We’ve added Brazilian data; Sao Paulo shown

Small multiples for daily new deaths in 43 countries:
• Algeria on a very steep curve ⚠️
• Sweden and Netherlands both avoiding full-scale lockdowns; both have more daily deaths than China at the same stage
• Ireland shallower curve than UK

All charts: ft.com/coronavirus-la…

Finally, small multiples for daily cases in 63 countries:
• Sweden v Norway still instructive. Norway locked down & new cases are falling, Sweden didn’t & each day brings more new infections
• Japan’s outbreak continues

Live versions of all charts here: ft.com/coronavirus-la…

Things to note:
• The data is noisy & subject to all sorts of tricky caveats
• e.g most countries reporting deaths in hospital. Many deaths occur in nursing homes etc; we hope to add these in future
• Point being: watch for general trends. Focus on slopes, not specific numbers

Here’s a video where I explain why we’re using log scales, showing absolute numbers instead of per capita, and much more:

https://twitter.com/janinegibson/status/1244519429825802240

And a chart showing why we're using absolute numbers rather than population-adjusted rates:

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1244380095164420101

Analysis of Chinese movie box office revenues shows that lockdowns won’t be lifted overnight, and life may take many months to return to normal.

Restrictions will be released bit by bit, only to be reinstated wholly or in part as infections pick up again

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1246135176461254657

And @google data shows that people in the US are still out and about much more than their counterparts in several European countries:

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1246123616040779776

Please email [e-mail] with feedback, requests & subnational data.

All of these are invaluable, and we continue to incorporate your suggestions and data every day.

We’ll keep getting back to as many people as possible.

Enjoy your Monday nights on and all :-)

A confession: every once in a while we don't cook fresh food 😳.

Tonight we opted to support a local business, and went with the fantastic Pizza Room (Grove Road, Mile End)