This says so, so much about why the federal response is struggling.
Trump is explicit that he takes a reactive approach to a crisis that exponentially punishes delay.
The only way to win is to get ahead of the virus. Reaction = failure.
Trump is explicit that he takes a reactive approach to a crisis that exponentially punishes delay.
The only way to win is to get ahead of the virus. Reaction = failure.
Calibrating action based on case numbers or ER admissions *today* means you are actually reacting to what the virus was doing *2+ weeks ago*.
From time of exposure, most people start begin experiencing symptoms within 11 days, and it often takes another week to become severe.
From time of exposure, most people start begin experiencing symptoms within 11 days, and it often takes another week to become severe.
And testing delays can add further time before a case gets officially counted. So taking action only once things get bad, as Trump is suggesting, means constantly running 2-3 weeks behind the virus.
What does this mean in terms of response timing?
What does this mean in terms of response timing?
These figures make it pretty clear.
If you act when you see 69 cases, you'll hit 2800 cases before seeing impact.
If you wait til you have 25K cases, you'll hit 311K cases before seeing impact.
If you act when you see 69 cases, you'll hit 2800 cases before seeing impact.
If you wait til you have 25K cases, you'll hit 311K cases before seeing impact.
Deaths lag even further, because people can spend 2-3 weeks in the ER. So if you wait until death totals look bad, you'll be a month behind the virus.
So when Trump says governors who aren't mandating stay-at-home orders are doing great, he and they are just consigning their states to ever higher case counts and deaths.
And by calibrating the federal response similarly, he ensures that we're always playing catch-up. It's like letting a forest fire rage unchecked until it reaches the edge of town.
