As things keep getting worse, we'll be hearing a lot of folks saying “look forward not backward” and “don’t politicize this disaster”.
Lemme tell you - from a disaster management perspective - why that’s bunk. This weekend's blockbuster WaPo piece is a good place to start.
Lemme tell you - from a disaster management perspective - why that’s bunk. This weekend's blockbuster WaPo piece is a good place to start.
I read this piece Sunday morning over breakfast with a red pencil in hand, circling every missed opportunity, every point where better leadership and competent governance could have put us on a better course.
There was a lot of red.
There was a lot of red.
What is so striking, reading through the piece, is that despite what @realDonaldTrump has repeatedly claimed, the current crisis was not unforeseen.
Numerous officials cited in the piece saw the potential risk. "The Richter scale hit 8" after the Wuhan lockdown began.
Numerous officials cited in the piece saw the potential risk. "The Richter scale hit 8" after the Wuhan lockdown began.
If the Richter scale hit 8 in late January, that gave us 2 months before US hospitals began getting overwhelmed. But that didn't translate into preparedness. Why?
Leadership, management, and planning failures. There are many in the article, but the section on testing stands out.
Leadership, management, and planning failures. There are many in the article, but the section on testing stands out.
A CDC that was overconfident in its ability to generate a test. An FDA that didn't feel it had the leeway to actively mobilize private labs. An HHS Secretary who didn't see the need for mass testing. A White House that rejected funding for enhanced surveillance.
Any one of those problems alone is an agency problem; all of them together is a systemic leadership problem. A failure at a high level to accurately recognize risk and fully mobilize an urgent readiness effort.
And this in turn is why looking backward right now is important.
And this in turn is why looking backward right now is important.
Real-time learning and accountability are fundamental elements of good disaster management. As I’ve written before - mistake are inevitable; and even tolerable, as long as you rapidly learn from and correct them.
That learning and course-correction must be an intentional part of the process. When I was in govt, our crisis response rhythm included something called a hot wash: a rapid real time review of what’s working, what isn’t, and what needs fixing.
As a crisis mgmt practice, “look forward not backward” rings hollow. You have to look backward to fix things going forward.
And this clearly isn’t happening. Instead we see the same chaotic mismanagement that reacts to events, muddles messages, and fails to strategize.
And this clearly isn’t happening. Instead we see the same chaotic mismanagement that reacts to events, muddles messages, and fails to strategize.
That broken and chaotic mgmt culture, the failure to anticipate and plan, the failure to correct mistakes - that is the core of what is wrong with this response. Far more than any individual tactical misstep.
And it is not being addressed. It's arguably worsening.
And it is not being addressed. It's arguably worsening.
You can see it in the tempest over Kushner's blatant misrepresentation of the purpose of strategic national stockpile.
When the longstanding website language contradicts Jared, it's the website that changes, not Jared.
When the longstanding website language contradicts Jared, it's the website that changes, not Jared.
You can see it in the running fiasco around hydroxychloroquine as a treatment.
When the informed medical view contradicts the President's uninformed opinion, it's the President who steps in to answer questions.
When the informed medical view contradicts the President's uninformed opinion, it's the President who steps in to answer questions.
You can see it in the dismissal of the captain of the Theodore Roosevelt.
When an officer puts the safety of his crew ahead of the White House's preferred narrative, it's that officer who gets changed out (and now has COVID himself).
When an officer puts the safety of his crew ahead of the White House's preferred narrative, it's that officer who gets changed out (and now has COVID himself).
These and so many other failures stem from a leadership culture that cannot be honest with itself.
Which is why the “don’t politicize” comments are so deeply wrong. Because what they’re actually saying is “don’t hold us accountable." Even as fundamental problems go unresolved.
Which is why the “don’t politicize” comments are so deeply wrong. Because what they’re actually saying is “don’t hold us accountable." Even as fundamental problems go unresolved.
Criticism of the administration’s mismanagement is not about partisan points-scoring. It’s about everyone's aging parents and immuno-compromised loved ones (including my own).
This is not theoretical. The country desperately needs to see this effort succeed.
This is not theoretical. The country desperately needs to see this effort succeed.
From other countries' experience, we know that success depends on:
1) early recognition of the risk
2) triggering response proactively rather than reactively
3) disciplined response execution
This virus therein reveals the best and worst of every government it encounters.
1) early recognition of the risk
2) triggering response proactively rather than reactively
3) disciplined response execution
This virus therein reveals the best and worst of every government it encounters.
The biggest variable in this fight is not the virus. That’s a constant.
It's not (just) the strength of health system. South Korea, China, Italy, US all have capable systems, yet have seen wildly divergent results.
It's not (just) the strength of health system. South Korea, China, Italy, US all have capable systems, yet have seen wildly divergent results.
Rather, the critical variable *is* politics: the leadership and governing competence of the countries where the virus is spreading.
As long as that element remains broken, people will die. Airbrushing that harsh reality serves no one.
As long as that element remains broken, people will die. Airbrushing that harsh reality serves no one.
