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This is absurd. The Minister of China's National Health Commission reported they were seeing this in late January. Wasn't airtight evidence at that stage, but credible enough to be concerning.
Link:
Slight nuance - more accurate to say it's been well established for quite a while that people can transmit the virus while pre-symptomatic. But functionally it's a similar risk - people transmitting before they (or anyone around them) realize they are sick. That's not new.
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Jeremy INVEST IN PUBLIC HEALTH Konyndyk
@JeremyKonyndyk
Since this video has been blowing up, I thought it might be useful to annotate some of the analysis.

Here are the receipts.
On the policy lessons we took from the 2016 Ebola response - I wrote this report last year, touching on why strong federal leadership and internal USG coordination are so central to success.
cgdev.org/publication/st…
Re: the pandemic response playbook, here's the first line: "The goal...is to assist in coordinating a complex USG response to a high-consequence emerging disease threat with potential to cause a pandemic"

Sounds useful, right?
politico.com/news/2020/03/2…
Read 19 tweets
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Jeremy INVEST IN PUBLIC HEALTH Konyndyk
@JeremyKonyndyk
As things keep getting worse, we'll be hearing a lot of folks saying “look forward not backward” and “don’t politicize this disaster”.

Lemme tell you - from a disaster management perspective - why that’s bunk. This weekend's blockbuster WaPo piece is a good place to start.
I read this piece Sunday morning over breakfast with a red pencil in hand, circling every missed opportunity, every point where better leadership and competent governance could have put us on a better course.

There was a lot of red.
What is so striking, reading through the piece, is that despite what @realDonaldTrump has repeatedly claimed, the current crisis was not unforeseen.

Numerous officials cited in the piece saw the potential risk. "The Richter scale hit 8" after the Wuhan lockdown began.
Read 18 tweets
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Jeremy INVEST IN PUBLIC HEALTH Konyndyk
@JeremyKonyndyk
This says so, so much about why the federal response is struggling.

Trump is explicit that he takes a reactive approach to a crisis that exponentially punishes delay.

The only way to win is to get ahead of the virus. Reaction = failure.
Calibrating action based on case numbers or ER admissions *today* means you are actually reacting to what the virus was doing *2+ weeks ago*.

From time of exposure, most people start begin experiencing symptoms within 11 days, and it often takes another week to become severe.
And testing delays can add further time before a case gets officially counted. So taking action only once things get bad, as Trump is suggesting, means constantly running 2-3 weeks behind the virus.

What does this mean in terms of response timing?
Read 7 tweets

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Indo-Pacific News
@IndoPac_Info
#China is legally responsible for #coronavirus damage & claims could be in the trillions

Article 6 of International Health Regulations requires states to provide expedited, timely, accurate & detailed information to WHO about potential health emergencies
warontherocks.com/2020/03/china-…
As one of the 194 states party to the legally binding 2005 International Health Regulations, China has a duty to rapidly gather information about and contribute to a common understanding of what may constitute a public health emergency with potential international implications.
The legally binding International Health Regulations were adopted by the World Health Assembly in 1969, to control six infectious diseases: cholera, plague, yellow fever, smallpox, relapsing fever, and typhus.
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William Yang
@WilliamYang120
Latest on #COVID19 - #China added 46 new cases, bringing the total number of cases to 81054. It also added 6 new deaths, increasing the total number of that to 3261.
In the epicenter of #Hubei province, the province recorded 0 new case and 5 new deaths. This is the third day in a row that Hubei has no new case, which has raised serious question about the way #China categorize its confirmed cases and the authenticity of its data.
The National Health Commission reported that 45 new cases are imported from abroad, and so far there have been 314 imported cases in total.
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Eunice Yoon
@onlyyoontv
#China’s National Health Commission said at @WHO briefing in Beijing this week no one is immune from #COVIDー19 since it is a new pathogen. Nationally, fatality rate is 3-4%. But China health officials earlier posted data on #coronavirus that might help when assessing your risk:
A team from #China’s CDC published research in a Chinese journal of epidemiology. The data, based on 70k patients, is till Feb 11 (so a little old) but it reveals trends. Fatality rate for elderly at 8-15%..
Those with compromised immune systems at higher risk. For heart disease, death rate is 10.5%. Men are dying from #coronavirus at almost twice the rate as women. Link to study here: chinaepi.icdc.cn/zhlxbx/ch/read…
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The Epoch Times
@EpochTimes
The #CoronavirusOutbreak in eastern #China’s #Shandong province is much worse than the officially reported, according to a series of internal gov't docs obtained by @EpochTimes. (Thread👇) theepochtimes.com/leaked-documen…
#Shandong authorities underreported the number of daily infections, according to internal #ShandongCDC data.

The Shandong CDC infection numbers were up to 52x greater than the officially published data by the Shandong health commission and #China’s National Health Commission.
As of Feb. 25, the #Shandong government stated that there were a total of 755 infections in the province.

But the internal document showed that 1,992 people had tested positive for #Coronavirus via nucleic acid testing as of Feb. 23. epochtimes.com/b5/20/2/24/n11…
Read 8 tweets
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Eunice Yoon
@onlyyoontv
#China state TV flagged that researchers at Zhejiang Univ found 2 drugs #arbidol & #darunavir inhibit #coronavirus. Lead scientist is recommending the drugs be included in National Health Commission’s official protocol. Commission cautions so far no confirmed effective treatment.
#China National Health Commission revised its protocol for #WuhanCoronavirus. It is now:

-alpha-interferon (inhalation)
-lopinavir/ritonavir (2 pills twice a day)
-ribavirin (optional, 4g first time, followed by 1.2g every 8 hours)
#China health officials much more focused on anti-viral drug #remdesivir by @GileadSciences. State media report phase III clinical trials of remdesivir started this PM in #Wuhan, virus hot zone.
Read 4 tweets
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William Yang
@WilliamYang120
More updates about #WuhanCoronavirus - #China’s National Health Commission said one big difference between #WuhanCoronavirus and #SARS is that the new virus is transmittable during incubation period. Additionally, it took SARS 3-4 months to become an epidemic but ...
... it only took #WuhanCoronavirus one month to become an epidemic. They also admit that since this is a new virus, #Beijing still has limited understanding about the virus. They emphasized that the progression of the epidemic is not controlled by them but the government will ...
... keep adjusting its mechanisms and executing different kinds of preventative measures. They reiterated that this is the only way for #China to get the epidemic under control.
Read 6 tweets

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